How Kiffin's Analytical 4th Down Decision Making Impacts 3rd Down Play-calling

There may be times this season that Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin takes some heat for his fourth down decision making.

Simply put, he doesn't care. And he has a good fallback measure for when he does such a thing – he's simply making the analytically inclined decision at such a time.

If, in a certain situation, historical math proves you would be expected to score more points on a given drive by going for it on 4th down than by kicking a field goal, the Rebels are going to have the offense out there for the 4th down.

One of these situations arrived on the very first drive of the Ole Miss season against No. 5 Florida.

Facing a 4th and 3 from the Florida 19 yard line, Kiffin could have given Luke Logan a chance for his first field goal of the year. Instead, the Ole Miss offense remained on the field and Matt Corral was sacked.

But it's a decision Kiffin would make again without blinking.

"That's analytics," Kiffin said. "The book said that. Whenever you follow the analytics, you're going to lean more towards going for things than what you're used to seeing or what you grew up watching. That's what the analytics say. People don't really take in the value of seven versus three and how big that is when it comes to the numbers. A lot of times when you follow that you end up going for it more than what you're used to."

So that much is by the book. But what the book doesn't exactly cover is how to approach play calling before that fourth down arrives.

Mainly, does knowing that you're in a spot where the book tells you that going for it on 4th down is in play change how you call subsequent plays leading up to 4th down?

With Lane Kiffin and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby, that's very much part of the equation. '

"The book will say five or less. So maybe we're at 3rd and 10. We know that if we get to five or less, we're going to go for it, Kiffin said. "So we call accordingly and don't call the same plays you would call on 3rd and 10 a lot of times."

The Ole Miss head man said he doesn't exactly think of it in this manner, but at times this season the Rebels will be treating those third down plays like a traditional second down play – how can we set ourselves up best to get the first down in the next two plays.

At times, that will mean calling run plays on third and long. Sure, some will be confused if on a 3rd and 10, Lebby dials up a draw play or a simple inside zone run.

But if the goal is to get them to a manageable 4th down situation where they're going for it, it's simply the smartest possible decision at the time.

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