National Analyst Puts Ole Miss on Upset Alert Against Louisville; Here's Why He's Wrong

Fox Sports' Will Hill predicted in his weekly "Favorite 'Dogs" column that Louisville would cover the +7 spread or win against Ole Miss this Sunday for the Rebels' season opener in Nashville.

Hill brought up Louisville star running back Issac Brown and the fact that head coach Jeff Brohm has more years of experience as a head coach than Ole Miss' Pete Golding as reasons for Louisville to be in reach or knock off Ole Miss.

While these and other factors are strengths for Louisville and could make the game against Ole Miss competitive, Ole Miss' roster is one of the most talented in the nation, and if they perform to their caliber, I expect the Rebels to win and cover.

Where Ole Miss has reason to worry

Louisville’s Issac Brown gets a first down against SMU Saturday Oct. 5, 2024 | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Louisville opens the season #24 in the AP poll with fairly high expectations for starting QB Lincoln Kienholz. Kienholz transferred to Louisville after losing a long QB battle to eventual Heisman finalist Julian Sayin for the starting job at Ohio State.

Now, Kienholz is looking to make a name for himself as a starter. His dual-threat ability is threatening against Pete Golding, whose defenses have historically been weaker against mobile QBs. However, Kienholz is inexperienced as a college passer, having only thrown 36 passes so far in his career.

Head coach Pete Golding is still calling plays for Ole Miss on defense, and he's good enough of a play caller to take advantage of an inexperienced passer. Kienholz is undoubtedly talented, but I don't see him being the difference-maker on Sunday for the Cardinals.

Something that could be the difference-maker is Louisville's running game. The importance of Issac Brown being healthy cannot be overstated. When he's on the field, he's one of the best players in the sport. Over the course of his career, he's put up more than 2,000 yards while averaging nearly eight yards per carry.

The Rebels' counter to Brown will be their defensive line and revamped linebacking corps. Their line features returning stars like Will Echoles and Kam Franklin, who will be supported by linebackers like Chucky Mullins Award winner Suntarine Perkins, Keaton Thomas and Luke Ferrelli.

The jury is still out on Ole Miss' offensive tackles. Terez Davis seems to have left tackle locked down, but the competition is not over for the starting right tackle spot between Tommy Kinsler IV and Carius Curne, though it looks like Kinsler has the lead.

There also remains the fact that this is the first Week 1 Pete Golding will face as a head coach, Jeff Brohm beginning his fourth year. That and Louisville's upset last season against Miami, the team that eliminated Ole Miss from the playoffs, gives Will Hall and others reasons to doubt the Rebels heading into Sunday night, though I wouldn't be so confident.

Louisville's strong; Ole Miss is stronger

Mississippi Rebels head coach Pete Golding reacts in the fourth quarter during the 2026 Sugar Bowl against the Georgia Bulldogs at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Louisville's running game is their biggest strength heading into this week, and Ole Miss has playmakers on their defensive line to try to combat it. Louisville has talent at their defensive end spots with players like AJ Green, Clev Lubin and Tyler Thompson, but their interior defensive line is far less established.

The Cardinals' nose tackle DeMeco Kennedy and defensive tackle Joshua Donald are both transfers. New starters on the interior defensive line help out Ole Miss, who have three returning starters on its interior offensive line.

If the Rebels can open gaps against this Louisville defensive line in the running game, the door is left open for Ole Miss' star running back Kewan Lacy to have a big game of his own.

Lacy is coming off a 2025 season where he put up 24 touchdowns. This season, he has more help in the backfield thanks to new running back transfers, potentially making him more explosive and impactful play-by-play and game-by-game.

If Lacy can outperform Issac Brown, the job becomes much easier for Pete Golding and company in other aspects of the game. Yesterday, I wrote about how Louisville focusing on Kewan Lacy and QB Trinidad Chambliss could open the door for players like Johntay Cook to have a breakout game.

Even if it's not Cook, the Rebels are so talented both offensively and defensively that Brohm would have to use his experience advantage to outcoach Pete Golding and new offensive coordinator and play caller John David Baker.

In his three seasons at Louisville, Brohm is 3-3 against opponents who finished the season ranked in the top 16. Last season in the playoffs alone, Pete Golding was 2-1, and in the loss, the Rebels were leading with less than 15 seconds to go in the semifinal game.

Also, John David Baker might've just been hired from East Carolina, but he is no stranger to Oxford and Ole Miss; he's previously coached with the team for three seasons, including a stint in 2022 and 2023 as the co-offensive coordinator.

What Golding lacks in overall games as a head coach, he more than makes up for in his big game experience, and any concerns I would've had about inexperience go away considering how familiar this staff and team seem to be together.

Golding keeping focus on Louisville and treating them "like an SEC game" only solidified my thoughts. My prediction is for Ole Miss to win by more than 7 points to cover the spread.

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