Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction, Odds, How to Watch SEC Tournament Semifinal

Chris Beard’s Ole Miss team is looking to become the ultimate bid stealer this March, as the Rebels have made it all the way to the semifinals of the SEC Tournament as the No. 15 seed.

Ole Miss has upset Texas, Georgia and Alabama, setting up an afternoon date with John Calipari’s Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday. Arkansas is coming off a three-point win over Oklahoma in the quarterfinals, riding a huge game from freshman point guard Darius Acuff (37 points, five rebounds, five assists).

Oddsmakers have set the Razorbacks as favorites in this game, and they’ve been elite against the spread in that spot (15-6) so far in the 2025-26 season.

However, Ole Miss kept the first meeting between these teams relatively close, losing 94-87 during the regular season.

Is another upset in the cards for the Rebels on Saturday?

Let’s check out the latest odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this SEC Tournament semifinal.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Ole Miss +8.5 (-108)
Arkansas -8.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Ole Miss: +320
Arkansas: -410

Total

157.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas How to Watch

Date: Saturday, March 14
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Bridgestone Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Ole Miss record: 15-19
Arkansas record: 24-8

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Key Player to Watch

Darius Acuff, Guard, Arkansas

A projected lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, Acuff showed why he’s one of the best guards in the country on Friday night.

He dropped a smooth 37 in the win over Oklahoma, and he already had a big game (26 points, nine dimes) in an earlier meeting with the Rebels.

Acuff is much more than a shot-maker, as he’s averaging 6.4 assists per game to run this Arkansas offense, which ranks sixth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.

Ole Miss will have to keep the freshman in check if it wants any chance to advance to the SEC Tournament Final.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

Arkansas has been great when favored this season, but I think the best bet to place on this game is the OVER since Ole Miss has been on a heater in the SEC tourney.

These teams combined for 181 points in their first meeting, and the Razorbacks have profiled as a perfect OVER team all season. The OVER has hit in 18 of the team’s 32 games, and John Calipari’s squad has the No. 6 offense in the country, per KenPom.

This season, Arkansas ranks:

20th in effective field goal percentage
1st in turnover rate
43rd in 2-point percentage
15th in 3-point percentage
22nd in adjusted tempo

However, defensively, the Razorbacks have struggled to defend teams inside the arc, ranking 274th in opponent 2-point percentage.

That sets up well for Ole Miss, as it has struggled shooting the ball this season and could use a few more easy looks at the rim. The Rebels are elite at taking care of the ball (22nd in turnover rate), and that should help both teams make the most of their offensive possessions on Saturday.

Ole Miss has also hit the OVER in 20 of 34 games this season.

Pick: OVER 157.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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