SEC Picks Against the Spread, Best Bets for Week 2

Week one in the Southeastern Conference was fun as hell, but it's not quite time to overreact.

Statistically, week two and week three and the best two weeks to bet on underdogs in football. We see things in opening week that we love or hate and the public overreacts to it, giving value in the dogs.

Let's keep that in mind as we get to this week picks. We went 2-2 in our best bets last week (really, Alabama? You couldn't cover against Mizzou?), but you're damn right we were right about Mississippi State (kinda).

Time to step it up. Here's a brief rundown followed by our best bets.

South Carolina (+17.5) at No. 3 Florida, o/u 57.5

Noon ET, ESPN

I know we just said it's the week for underdogs, but did ya'll see what Florida did last week? Dan Mullen finally might get over the big game hump with this team.

The Pick: Florida 42 – South Carolina 20 (Florida covers, over hits)

Missouri (+12.0) at No. 21 Tennessee, o/u 48.5

Noon ET, SECN

Tennessee went 1 for 12 on third down last week, despite topping 30 points in a win over South Carolina. On the other side, Mizzou covered against Alabama last week in a game that Larry Rountree was nonexistent.

The Pick: Tennessee 27 – Missouri 20 (Missouri covers, under hits)

No. 13 Texas A&M (+17.5) at No. 2 Alabama, o/u 52.5

3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Earlier this week, you could've gotten this game at 16.5. I don't care that it's now 17.5. Texas A&M stinks. Moving on.

The Pick: Alabama 38 – Texas A&M 17 (Alabama covers, over hits)

Ole Miss (+6) at Kentucky, o/u 61.5

3 p.m. ET, SECN

This one opened at Ole Miss +6.5 and a total of 56.5, which very quickly rose five whole points. We're going the opposite way on this one, taking that value in the under. But the Rebel offense should keep it close. UPSET.

The Pick: Ole Miss 30 – Kentucky 24 (Ole Miss wins outright, under hits)

No. 7 Auburn (+6.5) at No. 4 Georgia, o/u 44.5

7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

I've loved Auburn all offseason. I'm tempted to pick them outright. But I think this is where the 'don't overreact to week one' comes into play. Georgia gets JT Daniels back and wins a close one, but we're going to get more points in this one.

The Pick: Georgia 28 – Auburn 23 (Auburn covers, over hits)

Arkansas +17 at No. 16 Mississippi State, o/u 69.0

7:30 p.m. ET, SECN Alternate

No one was more impressive in week one than Mike Leach, KJ Costello and the Bulldogs. Arkansas' defense played well against a various host of unimpressive Georgia quarterbacks last week, but this is a different beast.

The Pick: Mississippi State 41 – Arkansas 20 (Mississippi State covers, under hits)

No. 20 LSU (-21.0) at Vanderbilt, o/u 50.5

7:30 p.m. ET, SECN

Another classic game where we're going to try and avoid overreacting. LSU gets Derek Stingley Jr. back for this one, and it's hard to believe they can look worse on defense than they did against State. Sure, Vandy played Texas A&M well last week, but as we mentioned earlier, the Aggies just stink.

The Pick: LSU 35 – Vanderbilt 13 (LSU covers, under hits)

**All spreads and totals via. Westgate Superbook at 10 a.m. on Friday, Oct. 2

The Grove Report's Best Bets for Week 2:

Hope you love totals!

South Carolina and Florida OVER 57.5

Kyle Trask vs. KJ Costello for All-SEC First Team quarterback is going to be a fun race. Trask and Kyle Pitts were clicking so hard last week and this Dan Mullen offense is flying as well as ever. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks threw the ball 39 times last week and look set up to do it again.

Alabama -17.5 over Texas A&M

The don't overthink it game of the week. Texas A&M seems to be perennially overrated and never more so than this year.

Auburn and Georgia OVER 44.5

We've belabored this point so many times, but I believe in Bo Nix. Auburn put up 29 on a ranked Kentucky team last week while only running for 91 yards. On the other side, Georgia looked much better offensively in the second half next week and get JT Daniels back (if they want him). It's just such a small number, even for a Georgia defense that's as good as ever.

Ole Miss and Kentucky UNDER 61.5

This total opened at 56.5 and immediately rose. The public loves the fun, new-look, Lane Kiffin offense. But in reality, the Ole Miss offense could step back and they could still win this game. This is my favorite pick of the week.

Mississippi State and Arkansas UNDER 69.0

This number is just so, so high. Even last week, when KJ Costello broke the SEC single game passing record, the Bulldogs still only scored 44. So let's just say they do the exact same thing again and score 44. Is Arkansas getting to 25? I doubt it. Huge number overreaction here daring the public to take the Mike Leach over. Don't

Last week: 2-2

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