Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Oregon Ducks on Selection Sunday

The Oregon Ducks women's basketball team finished the season with a 22-12 record, and the Ducks are expected to be one of the many representatives from the Big Ten in the NCAA Tournament.

The full bracket will be revealed on Sunday, but the Ducks are expected to be around a No. 7 seed. What are the best and worst outcomes for Oregon coach Kelly Graves and the Ducks?

oregon ducks womens basketball ncaa tournament march madness projection seed kelly graves katie fiso duke blue devils — Oregon Ducks head coach Kelly Graves high-fives Oregon Ducks forward Mia Jacobs (1) on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, during a Big Ten women's basketball tournament game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon Ducks Worst Possible Outcome

It's hard to find great outcomes as a No. 7 seed because a win in the first round gives the Ducks a date with a No. 2 seed, barring a major upset. Potential No. 2 seeds include Duke, Vanderbilt, LSU, and Iowa, meaning the Ducks will likely have to travel across the country for the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

This projection from CBS Sports' Connor Groel putting the Ducks in the same regional as Vanderbilt might be the worst potential outcome for Oregon's seeding in the bracket. In the first round, Groel has the Ducks facing South Dakota State, champions of the Summit League making their fourth-straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

The Jackrabbits' two leading scorers, forward Brooklyn Meyer and guard Madison Mathiowetz are both seniors, and their experience could pay off in the tournament, but Oregon's experience in a much tougher conference should be the difference.

In the second round, Oregon would face Vanderbilt, a team with a top-10 scoring offense and a plus-19.1 win differential.

Nothing is guaranteed in March, but if Oregon could possibly advance past the second round, the Ducks would likely have to face Louisville, a No. 3 seed in Groel's projection.

Oregon Ducks Best Potential Outcome

Oregon is expected to face Duke, according to ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme, and it might be the best possible scenario for the Ducks. Other options include LSU, the best offensive team in the nation.

While it might seem crazy, Oregon's chance at getting revenge against Duke could be a motivating factor for the Ducks in this scenario. In the 2025 NCAA Tournament, Oregon beat Vanderbilt before losing to Duke in the second round.

Oregon guards Katie Fiso, Elisa Mevius, and Sofia Bell were all on the team alongside forward Ehis Etute. This year, Fiso leads the Ducks in scoring with an average of 15.3 points per game, and Oregon's guard play will be key to any potential upset over Duke.

The Blue Devils are one of the top teams in the country when it comes to blocking shots, and their offense is led by forward Toby Fournier and guards Ashlon Jackson and Taina Mair.

The Ducks would have to get past No. 10-seeded Princeton, in Creme's projections, before thinking about Duke, though. Could Oregon get past the top team from the Ivy League for a potential upset bid over the Blue Devils?

The full bracket for the women's NCAA Tournament will be released on Sunday at 5 p.m. PT, and the first round starts on Friday, March 20.