Women's Basketball Bubble Watch: ACC, Big 12 Tournaments Have Major Stakes

A look at the teams on the bubble who have the most at stake during conference-tournament play.

Audi Crooks (55) and Iowa State have some work to do in the Big 12 tournament to solidify their case for the Big Dance. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Selection Sunday is nearly here. Conference tournaments have begun, which means it’s almost time for pencils down as the selection committee decides the 68-team field for the NCAA tournament.

At the top, UConn completed its 11th undefeated regular season in school history. Seven out of the Huskies’ previous 10 unbeaten regular seasons ended in a national title, but there’s still a lot of basketball to be played until Geno Auriemma’s unblemished squad could potentially cut down the nets in Phoenix.

Elsewhere at the top of the rankings, a cluster of SEC teams hope to join UConn, UCLA and South Carolina as top seeds for the Big Dance. There’s Texas, Vanderbilt and LSU within one loss of each other. Although No. 7 Oklahoma is out of the one-seed picture, the Sooners have had a great season behind freshman sensation Aaliyah Chavez and are poised to make some noise in March.

In addition to seeding implications, plenty of schools across the nation have some last-minute résumé building to do. The ACC and Big 12 specifically have a bevy of bubble teams that hope to make a strong closing statement for the selection committee. Stanford is looking to return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since longtime coach Tara VanDerveer’s departure. The Cardinal lost eight of nine games before a three-game winning streak to close the regular season. Still, a nice ACC tournament run was likely needed for Stanford to make its first NCAA tournament appearance under Kate Paye.

Iowa State star Audi Crooks is second in the nation in scoring behind Vanderbilt’s Mikayla Blakes. Still, though, the Cyclones have some work ahead to firm up their tournament case.

Here’s a look at the bubble for the women’s NCAA tournament as things currently stand.

On the bubble

Last four byes

• Virginia Tech
• Iowa State
• Princeton
• Richmond

Richmond has rattled off three straight wins since it lost back-to-back games to George Mason and George Washington. Those losses mean the Spiders would likely have to win the Atlantic 10 tournament to get into the NCAA tournament, but a recent blowout of 25–4 Rhode Island helps their case. Princeton is ranked No. 23 and has just three losses this season; two to Columbia and one to No. 14 Maryland. The Tigers and Lions could meet in Ivy Madness once more where Princeton has an opportunity for revenge and to get into the Big Dance automatically. Its case may be too strong for the committee to pass up anyway.

Virginia Tech got a huge win in its regular-season finale over fellow bubble team Virginia. The Hokies have a fairly friendly draw in the ACC tournament, too. Iowa State dropped two of its final three regular-season games, but Crooks is coming off a 41-point performance in the Cyclones’ most recent game during a win over Kansas State. The Big 12 tournament is wide open and the Cyclones will go as far as Crooks takes them.

Last four in

• Virginia
• Syracuse
• Nebraska
• Clemson

Ah, Virginia. The Cavaliers made a statement with back-to-back wins over Stanford and Louisville, but lost their past two games against North Carolina and Virginia Tech, which keeps the Hoos firmly on the bubble. Nebraska lost six games in a row in February, but won its final two contests against Washington and Rutgers. Sophomore guard Britt Prince has had a great season, averaging 17.3 points per game. Due to the February struggles, though, the Cornhuskers needed a decent showing in the Big Ten tournament.

Clemson recently beat Duke, but the Tigers were blown out by a struggling Stanford team who lost eight of its past 11 games heading into the contest. Clemson opens ACC tournament action against Virginia in a huge game for both sides. Syracuse may have the best tournament case of this bunch, but recent defeats to NC State and Notre Dame makes the Orange’s résumé tricky to digest. Thankfully, the ACC tournament will bring answers across the conference.

First four out

• Arizona State
• Stanford
• BYU
• Utah

Stanford was hanging on by a thread, but a three-game winning streak to close the regular season including a stomping of Clemson turned things around. The big question is: Was that enough for the Cardinal to make it back to the NCAA tournament? At 22–9, I remain bullish on Arizona State’s tournament chances in the first year under Molly Miller. But with two straight losses, the Sun Devils likely need at least two wins in the Big 12 tournament.

One of ASU’s recent losses came to BYU, which has beaten bubble teams in three straight: Utah, Colorado and the Sun Devils. The Cougars and Utes could meet once again early in the conference tournament, which would have serious bubble implications.

Next four out

• Colorado
• Illinois
• South Dakota State
• Mississippi State

The Big 12 is loaded with bubble teams. None looked better than Colorado until the Buffaloes dropped two in a row to BYU and Utah. That gives the slight edge to BYU and Utah, but Colorado’s wins over Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa State and Kansas are nice résumé builders. South Dakota State has one of the more interesting bubble cases. The Jackrabbits are slightly ahead of Summit League foe North Dakota State in the NET rankings and they recently beat the Bison by 15 points. With a much tougher schedule, South Dakota State’s at-large case is stronger. However, the 24–6 record may not be enough to get in without an auto-bid.

Illinois had a rough go in the loaded Big Ten, finishing its conference slate an even .500. Winning a couple games in the Big Ten tournament could go a long way, but that’s a tall task with No. 18 Michigan State ahead in the second round. Mississippi State ended the regular season with four losses, albeit a tough schedule with games against Texas and LSU. It may be too little, too late for the Bulldogs. But, anything can happen in March.

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