Charting Penn State's Road to Victory at Michigan in Week 7

The Nittany Lions have a narrow but visible path to beating the Wolverines.

Penn State Nittany Lions defensive tackle Armstrong Nnodim (91) reacts following a tackle during the first quarter against the USC Trojans at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Matt Campbell has learned quickly about Penn State's history at Michigan. The Nittany Lions are 4-10 in Ann Arbor, where they have won once since 2009 — and that was during the 2020 Covid season.

Most recently, Michigan rolled Penn State 41-17 at home in 2022. The Wolverines put up 563 yards of offense on the Nittany Lions (418 on the ground) in a thoroughly dominant performance. Penn State catches a break with this Michigan team, which is coming off a 180-yard performance against Minnesota that sent head coach Kyle Whittingham into the bye week flustered.

"You're going to find out a lot more abut us this week," Campbell said. "You've got to go on the road, play one of the top defenses in the country statistically and you have to go on the road and play at a place that traditionally is hard to play. Especially it's been hard here at Penn State."

A lot has gone wrong for the Nittany Lions this season, but they have a chance to get sort of right Saturday at Michigan. Here's a roadmap to a Penn State victory over the Wolverines.

Make peace with an unsuccessful run game

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) throws a pass against the USC Trojans at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Not totally, of course, but Penn State is at the wit's end with a run game that is averaging 78.3 yards per game and 2.6 per carry in Big Ten play. And with a backfield that does not have a carry of 10+ yards against a conference opponent.

Doesn't matter how many backs they play (four vs. Wisconsin, two vs. USC) or who starts (James Peoples at Northwestern, back to Carson Hansen for USC), the Nittany Lions can't move the football on the ground. It's an offensive line issue, a tight ends issue and running backs issue. So Penn State may as well turn the ball over the Rocco Becht completely.

The quarterback has been erratic in Big Ten play but worked the ball downfield better against USC and showed some scrambling ability. It would be an aggressive move to route the offense through Becht and the passing game against the nation's fifth-ranked defense.

But Michigan's top two defensive ends are listed as questionable, and Penn State receiver Chase Sowell is coming off two strong games. Now's the time to let the passing chips fall where they may.

Make Bryce Underwood throw the ball

Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) throws a pass against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Michigan coach Kyle Whittingham gave his quarterback a marginal vote of confidece after the bye week, saying that Bryce Underwood would retain his starting job. Underwood was dreadful in a loss to Minnesota, completing 10 of 21 passes for 101 yards and two interceptions. He has nowhere to go but up.

Underwood has been marginally more effective this year throwing on rollouts but is a panicked mess on traditional dropbacks. Good thing for him, or maybe for Penn State, the Nittany Lions have no substantially threatening pass rush, meaning Underwood can sit in the pocket for 6-8 seconds.

Still, Penn State somehow has to capitalize on the fact that he's mistake-prone, whether with an upgraded rush or blitz packages that unravel his internal clock.

Underwood hasn't been terribly intimidating running the ball, either, gaining just 20 yards on 10 carries against Minnesota. But that's also a potential soft spot in Penn State's defense, where they have been susceptible to quarterback scrambles. This might be a spot for safety Marcus Neal Jr. to return to the field in a spy role against Underwood.

Penn State's defense has to tilt the game somehow, and that's most likely by forcing Underwood into turnovers.

Figure out the safety position

USC Trojans running back Waymond Jordan (2) runs with the ball during the third quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State's safeties have been at the center of all three Big Ten losses. At Northwestern, they got spun around trying to tacke. Against USC, they simply couldn't cover the Trojans' receiver talent.

Michigan has neither component to its offense (unless Whittingham might have spent the bye week installing the Wing-T) so the Nittany Lions can breathe marginally easier. But if their safety play doesn't improve, even Michigan will have a chance at delivering some explosive plays.

Which they're not good at doing. Michigan is tied with Michigan State for last in the Big ten in explosive plays of 20+ yards (just six). But in Big Ten play, Penn State has allowed a surprising 15 plays of 20+ yards. Northwestern had seven, USC had five and Wisconsin scored its eventual game-winning touchdown on a 72-yard completion.

Penn State's safeties have been in the middle of all of this. They can't give a flailing Michigan offense hope by giving up too many explosives.

Penn State visits Michigan for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS Sports.

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