College Football Playoff Seems to Set New 'Penn State Rule' About Schedule Strength

Penn State did not set its 2026 Big Ten football schedule. But the Nittany Lions might have to defend it to the College Football Playoff selection committee later this season.

According to ESPN's Heather Dinich, the CFP will add a new metric to the list of principles it uses to determine the rankings and, by turn, the 12-team playoff. The CFP selection committee this year will consider strength of schedule within conferences in addition to the general strength of schedule and strength of record already part of the process.

According to Dinich, this new data point will "help separate teams in the SAME LEAGUE with similar records based on the strength of their conference opponents." Dinich used Penn State as an example.

The Nittany Lions do not play returning playoff teams Indiana (the defending national champion), Ohio State or Oregon this season. Dinich wrote that the new criterion won't be as important as other factors, such as quality wins, but will help the selection committee evaluate teams within conferences more closely.

This is an “inside baseball” type stat that won’t trump quality wins, schedule strength and record strength and what the committee sees on film. But it will put a number to answer the question: how tough is the daily grind in the each league? It’s not even equal within them. pic.twitter.com/RMNoGwKQ5j
— Heather Dinich (@CFBHeather) September 24, 2026

CBS Sports' Shehan Jeyarajah concluded that the CFP's new metric is targeted more at SEC coaches upset at expanding to nine conference games. However, Penn State also is, perhaps unwittingly, an affected party as well.

Penn State's 'jackpot' 2026 schedule

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell stands on the field prior to the game against the Temple Owls. — Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell stands on the field prior to the game against the Temple Owls at Lincoln Financial Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A consistent storyline regarding Penn State football this season has been the team's schedule. The Nittany Lions (3-0) did not play a Power 4 team on its non-conference schedule, during which it outscored those opponents by a combined 105 points. The highest-rated team on Penn State's preseason schedule, according to ESPN's College Football Index, is Temple at No. 85.

Since Penn State set its non-conference schedule years in advance, first-year coach Matt Campbell had no control over it. However, Penn State also had no control over the Big Ten schedule that the conference set.

Beyond missing Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon, Penn State does not face a team that won 10 games last season. Five of the teams not on Penn State's schedule won at least nine games.
The Nittany Lions certainly got a break, which their remaining strength of schedule reflects.

According to the ESPN FPI, Penn State's remaining SOS ranks 57th nationally, which is last in the Big Ten and 10 spots behind Wisconsin, which vists Beaver Stadium on Saturday. Because of that, Penn State has the Big Ten's second-best average win-probabiity ranking (ninth nationally, four spots behind Ohio State).

In addition to Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State, Penn State also does not face Iowa (28th in the FPI) or Illinois (44th). The highest-ranked team Penn State will face is No. 18 USC, which visits Beaver Stadium for the White Out. Penn State faces one top-20 FPI team on the road (No. 20 Michigan).

That all led national college football analysts to draw a fairly straight line from Penn State's schedule to the 2026 playoff. In fact, FOX Sports' Joel Klatt said that Campbell hit the 'jackpot" in his first season as the Nittany Lions' head coach.

"The best schedule in the Big Ten, yes, the lottery-winner, they hit the jackpot folks, and that is new head coach Matt Campbell and the Penn State Nittany Lions," Klatt said on a winter episode of the Joel Klatt Show. "This thing is not difficult. It just isn't at all."

"If you would have known this schedule before this hiring process, guys would have clamored to take the [job.]"

More from @joelklatt on who he feels won the schedule lottery in the Big Ten. Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/W9UthECEJd
— The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football on FOX Pod (@JoelKlattShow) February 2, 2026

Klatt projected that as a "potential 10-win schedule," which could be good enough to get the Nittany Lions into the playoff. "It could be a good year in Happy Valley with Matt Campbell," Klatt said on his show.

But this new CFP metric could change that, especially for a 10-win Penn State team competing for the last at-large bid against 10-win teams with a higher in-conference SOS. Penn State might need to lobby its case against an easy-schedule sentiment from even within the conference.

In July, Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti sought to position the conference as the playoff's dominant force. The conference won three straight national championships, two in the 12-team format, and last season had seven of the "nation's best 11 wins, more than double the next closest league."

"There have been 22 games played in the first two years of the 12-team CFP," Petitti said at Big Ten Media Days. "Fourteen of those 22 games have featured Big Ten teams, including two games with Big Ten teams facing each other."

Penn State has played three of those playoff games, going 2-1. But to even get there this season, the Nittany Lions might need to write a position paper defending themselves from what amounts to a new "Penn State Rule."

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