Gauging Penn State's College Football Playoff Prospects Entering Week 4

Before the season, Penn State running back James Peoples made a prediction. Peoples played last season at Ohio State and was part of the 2024 Buckeyes team that won the College Football Playoff title.

"I intend to cross paths with those guys [this season]," Peoples said.

Since Penn State and Ohio State don't play during the regular season (for the first time since the Nittany Lions joined the Big Ten), such a path-crossing would have to come in the Big Ten title game or the College Football Playoff. So what are Penn State's chances to make the playoff?

The Nittany Lions (3-0) begin Big Ten play Saturday against Wisconsin with promise and pause, and their odds to make the playoff keep climbing.

Gauging Penn State's playoff chances

Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Zay Robinson (2) celebrates with his teammates after a win over the Buffalo Bulls. — Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Zay Robinson (2) celebrates with his teammates after a win over the Buffalo Bulls at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Following their 55-13 win over Buffalo to close the preseason, the Nittany Lions moved up two spots to No. 12 in ESPN's College Football Power Index. The Nittany Lions begin Big Ten play with a 38.1-percent chance to make the playoff, according to the FPI. The FPI gave Penn State a 29-percent chance of making the playoff after Week 2.

Penn State has been climbing the playoff percentages since the summer, when the team was considered a "sleeper" contender for the 12-team playoff. And Penn State head coach Matt Campbell isn't entirely sure what to make of his team after three games.

"Not where we need to be," Campbell said last Saturday when asked where his team stands after three non-conference wins. "But I think a team that has certainly grown in different entities each week. [It's] still a team that, in my opinion, has got so much ability, and [there were] some things that were focal points for us today, and then we grew in some areas.

"... This is college football, and I think our ability to grow from week three to week four will be really
important. But I appreciated their urgency and the way we played, and the sense of physicality and our details."

Penn State ranks fourth among Big Ten teams in the FPI, still three spots behind Oregon, which lost at Oklahoma State in Week 2. The Nittany Lions also are among the most efficient teams in college football, according to the FPI.

The FPI ranks Penn State ranks among the top 30 in offensive (25th), defensive (7th) and special teams efficiencies (28th). Further, Penn State is not an underdog in any of its nine Big Ten games, acording to ESPN's playoff predictor.

Penn State's closest game is its Oct. 17 visit to Michigan, which ESPN ranks as 50-50 tossup. The Nittany Lions have a 69-percent chance to beat Northwestern in their first Big Ten road game of the season Oct. 2 and 70-percent chance to beat USC in the White Out, according to ESPN.

However, that Big Ten schedule, which analyst Joel Klatt called a "jackpot" and ESPN ranks 57th in remaining strength, leaves little room for error. A 10-2 Penn State team that loses to USC and Michigan has an 11-percent chance to make the playoff, according to ESPN. A 10-2 team that beats USC but loses to Northwestern and Michigan has a 12-percent chance.

Further, Penn State's current strength of is 28th in the FPI, behind teams like South Florida, James Madison and Tulsa.

First things first vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin Badgers running back Abu Sama III (3) runs the ball vs. the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Camp Randall Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State hosts Wisconsin (2-1) for a 5 p.m. ET kickoff in their Big Ten opener at Beaver Stadium. Like Penn State, the Badgers are coming off big win over a MAC opponent. Wisconsin beat Eastern Michigan 54-10 without running back Abu Sama III, who averaged 6.8 yards per carry in the Badgers' first two games.

Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell said that Sama was cleared to play against Eastern Michigan but held out as a "game-time decision." Campbell and the 24 former Iowa State players who joined him at Penn State are quite familiar with Samu.

The running back rushed for 732 yards and five touchdowns for the Cyclones last season before transferring to Wisconsin. Penn State is a 10-point favorite over the Badgers, according to DraftKings.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Sign up to our free Penn State Nittany Lions newsletter, follow us on social media and add Penn State on SI as a Preferred Source on Google.

Add us as a preferred source on Google