'Fire Franklin'? Penn Stats Fans Should Be Careful What They Wish For

The chants started again during the Nittany Lions' loss to Oregon. But there are costs to considering such a drastic change.

Penn State football head coach James Franklin arrives with the Nittany Lions before the start of their game vs. Nevada. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

We will start with the basics: I don’t think Penn State should fire James Franklin, a topic that resurfaced again following the Nittany Lions' overtime loss to Oregon.

In a profession where winning is hard but the only thing that matters, Franklin has won on a more consistent basis than the vast majority of his peers. In a sport full of chaos, Penn State almost never loses games it shouldn’t. The result is a perpetual place in the season’s most nationally relevant moments.

I think this is particularly noteworthy within an ecosystem where continuity is fleeting. You can say whatever you want about the games Franklin is and isn’t winning, but Penn State football is inarguably in the midst of one of its most successful eras.

In turn, I don’t think chasing your tail for the final push over the hump is worth the effort. Yet.

RELATED: How a bitter loss to Oregon scrambled Penn State's playoff chances

A risky proposition

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin walks into Beaver Stadium prior to a game against the Oregon Ducks. | James Lang-Imagn Images

That said, some of Franklin’s key assets — program management, personnel management, recruiting, an ability not to shoot his mouth off and predictable on-field success — ultimately are replicable. If the bar you’ve set is getting Penn State regularly to 10 or 11 regular-season wins with a coach whose personality matches the sensibilities of the program’s history, there are coaches who could probably pull that off for you. No coach is a guarantee to make it past that point, because getting past that point is more difficult than anything else.

And so, there is of course the uncertainty that comes with making a change. It is a regular tradition to see quality hires at quality programs not pan out, or new hires take forever to get the ball rolling. Even Kirby Smart, who has (in my eyes) taken on the honor of best coach in the game following the retirement of Nick Saban, is not without his hiccups. Of course, how much these bumps in the road are Smart and how many are out of his control is the crux of nearly every coaching-related debate.

But the problem for Penn State is that the sell for Franklin-in-perpetuity is centered around a risk some fans might be willing to make. Let’s back up a bit.

While not a perfect analogy, if you think about Franklin’s time at Penn State within the framework of the NFL, and view his lack of success in big moments as something akin to the playoffs, an NFL team probably would have moved on by now. Regular-season wins or not. Just one example: The Philadelphia Eagles fired future Hall of Fame coach Andy Reid despite regular-season success because he couldn’t quite get over the hump with that franchise.

And that’s where the road splits and NFL teams have an advantage that Penn State doesn’t. The risk is calculated differently.

Let’s take the Jacksonville Jaguars for another example. Jaguars’ owner Shad Khan is worth something in the ballpark of $14 billion, according to a very quick Google search. If the Jaguars need something, there’s nothing to keep Khan from spending or finding the money to make it happen. And while it’s true that fans are part of the bottom line and broader franchise perception and value, NFL teams make so much more money from so many other areas that the risk of losing fans for a few years comes with less dire consequences.

James Franklin responds to fans' frustrations with loss to Oregon

The cost of making a change

Penn State Athletic Director Pat Kraft, center, greets head football coach James Franklin before the Nittany Lions' game vs. Nevada. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

But in the eyes of Penn State, it’s everything. According to its most recent athletics fiscal report, Penn State made a little more than $44.4 million in ticket sales for the 2023-24 fiscal year. 

If we do some rough math, with an average of 108,000 fans over seven games, that works out to roughly $58 per fan per game. If Penn State’s attendance falls just 1 percent over the course of the season, that works out to around $440,000 in lost revenues. That's a basketball recruiting budget.

Add in $12.2 million for parking, novelties and concessions. See that figure drop alongside attendance and that’s more than half a million in combined lost revenues in the most modest of circumstances.

Zoom out further: Penn State Athletics reported total operating revenues of $220 million, and total operating expenses of $215 million in 2023-24. You’re still breaking even, but that’s tenuous in a world where Penn State’s positive cash flow is a rarity. Then again, as media rights increase, the ledger will continue to run in the right direction.

All of this is to say that Penn State’s long-term sell for keeping Franklin is only going to get harder if he can’t find a way to turn around his own narrative. The sell is hard, because beyond a general sense of continuity and certainty, it’s a financial risk mitigation as much as anything else. Penn State can’t really pay his $48 million buyout, and it can’t risk the next guy not working out, upsetting a world where Penn State fans are disgruntled, but still showing up because a 10-win team is still not a bad team.

All of this while paying for a Beaver Stadium stadium renovation to the tune of $700 million.

That’s the problem for Penn State and whatever messaging it’ll have to take on if Franklin can’t find a way to win those games. Athletic Director Pat Kraft can say all he wants about his passion for winning, but he’s running a business. And until people stop showing up, the smartest thing he can do is hope Franklin figures it out, because the alternatives aren’t always cheaper.

And in a world where your average fan is already paying top dollar to get in the door, and then is asked for more money to support NIL, it’s hard to convince them that thinking of Penn State’s pockets should be on their mind.