How a Bitter Loss to Oregon Scrambles Penn State's Postseason Chances

The Nittany Lions had every advantage in hosting the Ducks. Now, they're fighting to keep their playoff hopes afloat.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) runs with the football during the fourth quarter against the Oregon Ducks at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State's first pivot after its double-overtime loss to Oregon was to last season. Nittany Lions coach James Franklin reminded his team that Ohio State won the national championship after a close loss to Oregon. He had defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, who was with the Buckeyes last season, reiterate the message.

"I think college football is different than maybe how it's been in the past," Franklin said. "You've got to do everything you possibly can to put yourself in the best position to get into the playoffs, and then make a run."

But "everything you possibly can" is quite different now. Penn State brought every advantage into its top-10 matchup with the Ducks: a breezy non-conference schedule, a bye week, the White Out and a program that Frankling repeatedly has described as having the best combination of talent and personnel in his 12 seasons.

Then Oregon toppled that Jenga tower. Franklin and Penn State sold this moment as the beginning, the public introduction of their championship season. Now, the Nittany Lions return to the familiar territory of fighting through a forest of uncertainty to reach the College Football Playoff.

The loss to Oregon was impactful not only psychologically but also strategically. It left the Nittany Lions with very little margin of error to return to the playoff.

Penn State's playoff chances fall after the loss

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) looks downfield prior to throwing during the fourth quarter against the Oregon Ducks at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

ESPN's College Football Power Index wasn't kind to Penn State after the loss. The Nittany Lions had a 38.8-percent chance to make the playoff field after their 3-0 start. According to the FPI, Penn State now has a 22.5-percent chance to make the playoff. The FPI also lowered Penn State's chance to make the title game from 6.6 percent to 3.1 percent. The Nittany Lions have a 1.8 percent chance of winning out, and their projected wins total is an alarming 8.7.

Penn State's odds to make the playoff are lower than those of Missouri (34.8 percent), BYU (35.2), Texas Tech (35.7) and Vanderbilt (42.6). That doesn't even consider the four Big Ten teams ahead of Penn State, including Indiana at 69.1 percent.

One reason? The schedule. Penn State's non-conference schedule ranked last nationally, according to the Massey Ratings. Penn State currently ranks 61st in strength of record, according to the FPI. though the remaining schedule ranks 25th. The schedule could make Penn State a bubble team in December. In fact, ESPN's Heather Dinich currently projects Penn State at No. 12 in the CFP rankings.

"Penn State dropped for several reasons: It doesn't have a win against a Power 4 opponent, it has one win against an FCS team [Villanova] and its offense hasn't looked elite — even against weaker competition," Dinich wrote.

How Penn State can change the story

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore throws a pass against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A win over Oregon would have given Penn State not only the signature moment it needed but also room to breathe. Now, the Nittany Lions face a must-win at Iowa on Oct. 18 before heading into the two-game stretch that will define its season.

Penn State visits Ohio State on Nov. 1 and hosts Indiana on Nov. 8, and it's currently an underdog in both games. ESPN's Playoff Predictor gives the Nittany Lions a 29-percent chance to win in Columbus and just a 48-percent chance to beat the Hoosiers.

Both of those numbers will change. However, Penn State can't afford a stumble before getting to the first two weeks of November. And even it it splits those games (beating Indiana, losing to Ohio State), Penn State will need a good defense attorney to state its schedule's case to the CFP selection committee.

In that scenario, Penn State would be 10-2 with its best win at home over Indiana and its best road win at Iowa, which is currently 3-2. The Nittany Lions also would not have a non-conference win over a Power 4 opponent.

Granted, neither did Ohio State last season, when it beat Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall. And the Buckeyes also lost two conference games, as Franklin pointed out, by a combined total of four points.

But this season, the CFP selection committee introduced "enhancements" to its criteria for determining the 12-team field. Among them is "record strength," a metric the committee will use to determine how a team performed against its schedule.

"This metric rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team," according to the CFP website. "Conversely, these changes will provide minimal reward for defeating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team.

At 10-2, Penn State would argue its quality losses. But the selection committee could ding Penn State for defeating "lower-quality" opponents, including two more (UCLA and Northwestern) in October.

Penn State's double-overtime loss to Oregon would prove costly if the team doesn't improve in the committee's eyes. Which makes the Nittany Lions' degree of difficulty that much greater for the remainder of the year.

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin reacts during the fourth quarter vs. the Oregon Ducks at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images