Is Penn State a 'Sleeper' Contender for the College Football Playoff?

First, Penn State's 2026 football season was labeled as "seemingly impossible" to predict. Now, the Nittany Lions are earning sleeper status as a College Football Playoff title contender. So what gives? It's that schedule making analysts believe that Penn State will punch above its weight.

The latest friendly prediction comes from USA Today's Blake Toppmeyer, who has picked five potential championship sleeper contenders. Two, Penn State and USC, are from the Big Ten but for different reasons.

USC gets a nod despite its schedule, which includes Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana Penn State and Washington. Penn State gets a "Hail Mary" pick because of its schedule, which does not include Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana.

Statistically, Penn State has one of the Big Ten's easiest 2026 schedules. The Nittany Lions don't face a team that won 10 games last season, and they're tied with Navy at 110th nationally in opponents' returning winning percentage (48.3 percent). Only three of Penn State's opponents (USC, Michigan and Washington) won nine games last year.

"Matt Campbell couldn’t have gotten a kinder welcome into the Big Ten," Toppmeyer wrote. "If USC drew the Big Ten’s schedule of doom, then Penn State got the boon."

But is Penn State's schedule a "cupcake feast," as Toppmeyer suggested? Outside of USC, Michigan and Washington, all of which rank at least 21st in ESPN's SP+, Penn State plays just two more teams ranked in the top 50: (Minnesota at No. 45 and Northwestern at No. 49).

However, Penn State faces road games at Michigan and Washington and will help Northwestern open its new Ryan Field on the first Friday of October. While the schedule appears broadly generous, there are specific challenges and potential pitfalls.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) throws a pass during practice at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State also is elevating expectations based on its experienced roster led by fourth-year starting quarterback Rocco Becht. The Nittany Lions have one of the most experienced teams in the Big Ten, in terms of starts and snaps, and Becht is among college football's most veteran quarterbacks.

If Becht plays to his potential as the FBS quarterback with the most returning starts (39) and wins (26), Penn State has a chance to be that "Hail Mary" surprise. Campbell and the Nittany Lions won't be in that position without Becht.

"Rocco was a huge piece of why we were able to climb out of the hole at Iowa State," Campbell said. "His leadership and his humility and just his toughness and grit were huge pieces of why we had the success we did. Some of the greatest moments in the program’s history are under Rocco.

"No matter what happened the last three-and-a-half quarters [of a game], that's a guy that you want with the ball in his hand at the end of a football game. I think he's proven it with videotape evidence. I always say, nobody's had more game-winning touchdown drives on the last drive of a game than what Rocco Becht has in college football, and that's been pretty impressive."

Penn State opens the 2026 season Sept. 5 at home vs. Marshall.

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