The Betting Guide to the Outback Bowl
Penn State opened as a 3-point favorite vs. Arkansas in the Outback Bowl, but the line has changed and bettors so far have favored Arkansas, according to early data from DraftKings.
The sports-betting site reported that 55 percent of bettors favored Arkansas early against the spread, while the money was split almost evenly (51-49 in favor of Arkansas). On the money line, 69 percent of bettors favored Arkansas (at +105), and 77 percent of the handle was on the Razorbacks as an early underdog.
Since opening as the favorite, Penn State has fallen to a 1-point underdog after two of its top players, receiver Jahan Dotson and safety Jaquan Brisker, opted out of the game. So far, four Penn State starters have announced that they won't play in the Outback Bowl.
Still, the game holds plenty of appeal.
"It's a really great game," said Johnny Avello, DraftKings' Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations. "You have two interesting teams. Penn State is probably disappointed in their season, but I know Arkansas is not. They have actually exceeded expectations."
Avello has been around sports betting for decades, working for various Las Vegas sportsbooks before joining DraftKings in 2018. He's a legendary figure in the business, having been inducted into the Sports Betting Hall of Fame this year.
So what does Avello think of the Outback Bowl? In a recent interview, he discussed betting strategies, expectations for player opt-outs (Penn State could be without four defensive starters, Avello said) and what to follow as the game approaches.
Here's our Q&A with Avello.
What should bettors look for in the Outback Bowl?
There are a couple of ways to handicap it. Arkansas' best receiver [Treylon Burks] is out. Their quarterback, [KJ] Jefferson has been really, really solid this year. He's had a tremendous year. He's a tough guy to contain, who not only can throw the football but can run the football.
On the Penn State side, you look at their history in bowl games, and it's pretty good [the Lions are 30-18-2]. I think the coach [James Franklin] does a great job getting his team ready every year. Sometimes he doesn't have quite all the horses to work with as some of the other teams that he plays against in the Big 10, but I think he does a tremendous job there.
I think it's about preparation for bowl games. Who does the better job? That's a good place to start, because some coaches don't have a good record in bowl games. Maybe they had higher expectations and there's a letdown. Some coaches look at it as a recruiting tool or that a win's a win, and I don't care where we get it. You also have to look at offense vs. defense, what the different strengths of the teams are, so there are many different ways to look at this game.
And one thing you'd better look at is, when we put up the lines in early December for games played on January 1, you really have to be cognizant of who's going to play.
How do you factor opt-outs into a bowl game line?
If you lose a quarterback in pro football, a guy like Aaron Rodgers could be worth 7-10 points in a game. But in college football, it's not so much. Usually, the backup is good enough and adequate to get the job done, especially in a one-game situation. When it comes to other players, such as defensive guys, if you have 3-4 guys out, that could move the needle a little bit — maybe a point, point-and-a-half. But for the most part, we know that in college football, unless it's a sensational guy who makes an impact on every single play, the line movement is quite minimal, especially in bowl games.
Where do you see the Outback Bowl line moving?
So far we've had that little bit of movement. There's going to be some more movement on this game as we get closer. If you look at Arkansas, they've had some cupcake games but they've also played Alabama tough, won at LSU and they beat Texas A&M, so they've had a pretty successful season. So this line is probably going to come down a little bit. Since you've got an SEC opponent getting points, you may see money-line action on Arkansas.
Why would you bet Penn State?
I would probably bet Penn State because of the coach. I don't want to take anything away from the teams. I mean, they're really two teams who are fairly close to equal. Maybe Penn State gets a little bit of an edge in the power ratings. But I would bet Penn State because of the coaching aspect.
Why would you bet Arkansas?
I would bet Arkansas because of the quarterback, KJ Jefferson. I've seen him in games. He's a lot to handle. If he's back in a passing situation and it's not there, he'll take off. And he's a tough guy who's very fast and elusive. So that would be my argument on that side.
Read more
Receiver Jahan Dotson says farewell to Penn State
All-American safety Jaquan Brisker to skip bowl game
