Penn State Coaching Search Predicted to Favor Coach From SEC

Penn State enters its second month of th search to replace James Franklin.

A general view of the Beaver Stadium end zone before a game between the Northwestern Wildcats and the Penn State Nittany Lions. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State's coaching search enters its second month following the firing of James Franklin, and the candidate list remains intriguing. But according to the Kalshi futures market, one college head coach has taken a solid lead to lead the Nittany Lions.

Kalshi's current leader in the Penn State football coaching search is Missouri's Eli Drinkwitz, who is in his sixth season with the Tigers. Kalshi's marketplace gives Drinkwitz a 38-percent chance to become Penn State's next coach, far above Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline (13 percent).

Kalshi determines odds based on those who buy and sell "yes" and "no" contracts on the exchange. The trades have led to some interesting names still on the market, including former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer (7 percent), Buffalo Bills defensive coordinator Joe Brady (6 percent) and former LSU coach Brian Kelly (slipping at 5 percent).

The Tigers fell to third-ranked Texas A&M 38-17 on Nov. 8, playing with third-string quarterback Matt Zollers. Missouri (6-3) is unranked and most likely out of contention for the College Football Playoff, making Drinkwitz's availability in early December more possible. Drinkwitz is a Kalshi candidate for the vacant Florida job behind favorite Lane Kiffin of Ole Miss.

Drinkwitz has been popular among traders since the Penn State job opened Oct. 12. He has led the race multiple times, but his popularity reached its current peak this week, perhaps reflective of Missouri's most recent game.

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What to know about Eli Drinkwitz

Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz celebrates after his team beat the Auburn Tigers in overtime at Jordan-Hare Stadium. | John Reed-Imagn Images

The Tigers began this season with high hopes behind a highly ranked transfer portal class highlighted by former Penn State quarterback Beau Pribula. However, Pribula was injured in the Tigers' loss to Vanderbilt, joining fellow quarterback Sam Horn on the sideline. Missouri started Pennsylvania native Matt Zollers, a true freshman, in the loss to Texas A&M.

Still, Drinkwitz's teams are 27-8 over the past three seasons, and he's an offensive-minded coach, which carries weight in searches. Drinkwitz ranks 11th in annual salary, according to USA Today, and is in position to negotiate an extension at Missouri or a new contract elsewhere.

Ben Hochman, a columnist for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, wrote that Missouri should extend Drinkwitz's contract to fend off bidders elsewhere. That would be something, considering that Missouri just extended Drinkwitz's contract in July. The extension included more funding for assistant coaches, strength staff and support personnel.

"The consistent progress we've seen under Coach Drinkwitz's leadership is inspiring," Missouri Athletic Director Laird Veatch said in a statement this summer. "This extension, along with increased investment in our coaching and support staff, reflects our commitment to sustaining success at the highest level. It's all part of our 'Will to Win' — a clear statement that we're building championship programs."

Drinkwitz traces his coaching influences through Gus Malzahn, with whom he coached at Auburn, and Bryan Harsin, with whom he worked at Boise State. Drinkwitz got his first head-coaching job at Appalachian State in 2019 and is in his sixth season at Missouri.

Penn State's coaching search goes on

Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft gives two thumbs up to the student section following a Nittany Lions win at Beaver Stadium. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

Pat Kraft, Penn State's Athletics Director, has kept a tight lid on leaks regarding the coaching search, which is entering its second month. Penn State is expected to prioritize a sitting Power 4 head coach, though the College Football Playoff schedule could tangle those plans.

Among the potential candidates:

Texas A&M's Mike Elko leads the nation's third-ranked team, which has a 99-percent chance to make the playoff, according to ESPN. The Aggies conclude the regular season with games against South Carolina, Samford and Texas.

Louisville coach Jeff Brohm could be available, as the Cardinals are 7-2 following a home loss to Cal. Louisville still has games against Clemson, SMU and Kentucky.

Hartline, the Ohio State offensive coordinator, leads the nation's top-ranked scoring offense with Heisman contender Julian Sayin throwing to two potential All-America receivers in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The duo combined for 247 receiving yards and three touchdowns in the Buckeyes' 38-14 win over Penn State.

Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule is likely out after signing a two-year extension with the Cornhuskers recently. Rhule returns to Penn State, his alma mater, Nov. 22, when the Nittany Lions host Nebraska.