Virginia vs. Missouri Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Gator Bowl

Both the teams in this year’s Gator Bowl were ranked at some point during the 2025 season, but only one remains inside of the top 25 ahead of this weekend. Missouri will take on No. 19 Virginia as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday after topping Arkansas in its regular-season finale. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, were upset by Duke in the ACC Championship.

Missouri boasts one of college football’s best rushing attacks, as only seven teams can top its average of 234.1 yards per game on the ground. Star running back Ahmad Hardy is the driving force behind that production. Virginia has the edge when it comes to passing, but both teams have sturdy run defenses.

Here’s our full betting breakdown ahead of kickoff.

Virginia vs. Missouri Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Virginia: +4.5 (-114)
Missouri: -4.5 (-106)

Moneyline

Virginia: +160
Missouri: -194

Total: 45.5 (Over -104/Under -118)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Virginia vs. Missouri How to Watch

Date: Saturday, December 27
Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
Venue: EverBank Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Virginia: 10-3
Missouri: 8-4

Virginia vs. Missouri Key Players to Watch

Virginia

J’Mari Taylor: Taylor is the ACC’s only 1,000-yard rusher. He’s tallied 1,062 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns on 222 carries and has been involved in the Cavaliers’ passing attack as well. The Virginia running back has recorded four receptions for a season-high 34 yards in back-to-back games. He could very well be tested against Missouri’s fringe top-15 run defense, but has run for more than 100 yards and scored multiple touchdowns in one game three times this year.

Missouri

Ahmad Hardy: Hardy went over 100 rushing yards in five straight games to begin the year, but hit a rough patch once the Tigers hit the heart of their schedule and faced four consecutive ranked SEC opponents. Missouri’s running back has since tallied a career-high 300 rushing yards against Mississippi State and wrapped up the regular season with 157 yards on the ground against Arkansas. Only Jacksonville State’s Cam Cook can top his mark of 1,560 rushing yards this season.

Virginia vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

Virginia has the better overall record and record against the spread (8-5). However, Missouri is at a disadvantage playing in a tougher conference with five top-10 teams. The Cavaliers have thrived as underdogs this year, though.

The Cavaliers are 3-1 in 2025 as underdogs and only failed to cover when they lost to NC State by four as three point underdogs Week 2. They went on to find their rhythm and win seven straight following that contest.

Missouri has been up-and-down against the spread and hasn’t covered in back-to-back weeks since Week 3. Virginia has shown bettors that they can be confident in their chances to exceed expectations when oddsmakers predict a loss.

PICK: Virginia +4.5 (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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