Penn State Bowl Projections: The New Year's 6 Case Strengthens
Penn State wasn't thrilled with its place at No. 11 in last week's College Football Playoff rankings, which gave it a puzzling New Year's 6 bowl outlook. But that outlook became more favorable after Saturday's college football schedule.
Penn State did its part Saturday to clear things, defeating Michigan State 35-16 to complete a 10-2 regular season. Some other results certainly helped as well, as LSU (No. 5), Clemson (No. 8) and Oregon (No. 9) lost Saturday. Though they'll still have to wait out the conference championship games, the Lions appear to have a stronger path the the NY6 — even the Rose Bowl (we'll explain).
In the meantime, Penn State coach James Franklin will look for the Big Ten to continue "pounding the table" on his team's behalf for the best bowl game possible.
Which bowl game is Penn Stated headed to this season? Here's the latest breakdown of the Lions' possible bowl destinations.
Cotton Bowl
When: Jan. 2
Where: Arlington, Texas
Matchup: At-large vs. highest-ranked Group of Five opponent
The Situation: This is Penn State's most likely NY6 destination. The Lions' chances improved greatly with losses by LSU, Clemson and Oregon. In fact, the Lions are in a good spot, since they'll likely be No. 8 in this week's CFP rankings. That essentially would assure Penn State an at-large berth in the Cotton Bowl.
If they return to the Cotton Bowl for the second time since 2019, the Lions would face the winner of next week's Tulane-Central Florida AAC championship game.
Rose Bowl
When: Jan. 2
Where: Pasadena, California
Matchup: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
The Situation: Michigan's 22-point win over Ohio State initially seemed to hurt Penn State's Rose Bowl chances. The Lions' best bet for Pasadena appeared to involve two Big Ten teams in the playoff, which remains possible. However, here's another option: The Rose Bowl invites Penn State instead of Ohio State, which heads to the Orange Bowl instead.
It's possible. The Rose Bowl states that, if a conference champ makes the playoff, it "traditionally" would select the next-highest ranked conference team. But its selection procedures include caveats regarding recent appearances and best matchups. This season represents a fine opportunity to break tradition. Ohio State likely will be the highest-ranked Big Ten or SEC team, making it eligible for selection to the Orange Bowl. It has played in the Rose Bowl twice since 2018, including last year against Utah, which faces USC in the Pac-12 title game.
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes last played in the Orange Bowl in the 2013 season. And Penn State can offer the Rose Bowl an energized fan base on a four-game win streak. The Lions haven't been there since the 2016 season.
The swap makes sense as a break from that tradition. One issue might the potential for a Penn State-Washington rematch of the 2017 Fiesta Bowl, though that was a lifetime ago in college football years. The Huskies had a different coaching staff, and Sean Clifford was a freshman.
Penn State coach James Franklin said Athletic Director Patrick Kraft would "handle all these strings." This might be one Kraft attempts to pull to get Penn State to Pasadena.
Orange Bowl
When: Dec. 30
Where: Miami Gardens
Matchup: ACC vs. highest-ranked of Big Ten/SEC/ Notre Dame
The Situation: This is Penn State's least likely NY6 possibility, since Tennessee and Alabama should remain ahead of Penn State in this week's CFP rankings. As a result, one could go to the Sugar Bowl, the other to the Orange Bowl. But as an unconventional option, let's reiterate: The Rose and Orange could broker a deal by sending Penn State to Pasadena and Ohio State to Miami, potentially against Clemson.
Citrus Bowl
When: Jan. 2
Where: Orlando
The Matchup: Big Ten vs. SEC
The Situation: Penn State is guaranteed a spot in the Citrus Bowl if it somehow does not make the New Year's 6. The opponent? Potentially LSU, if the Tigers fall to Georgia in the SEC title game.
Bowl bids will be announced Dec. 4.
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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.
