Expectations Are High for Penn State in 2023. But Are They Realistic?
In February, when he brought the Rose Bowl trophy to a Penn State Board of Trustees meeting, James Franklin confronted, even reveled in, his team's forthcoming expectations. Returning one of the Big Ten's most talented rosters from an 11-win season, Penn State stands out among the darlings of college football's preseason. Franklin even pointed that out last winter.
The Penn State coach noted to trustees that his team was fifth in ESPN's SP+ 2023 preseason rankings, quickly adding that it ranked behind Ohio State and Michigan. His point was clear.
"I want to be back here next year addressing you guys about our season as well," Franklin said. "But I would also challenge you as well as those [players] over there, we're fifth in the country, but there's two schools in our own side of the conference that are also ranked in the top 5. So we've got a tremendous challenge, which is something that we embrace."
The Lions begin training camp this week ahead of the 2023 season facing their highest expectations since 2017, a year they began at No. 6 in the AP preseason Top 25. That team boasted the richest collection of offensive talent Franklin has assembled — until this season. Trace McSorley, Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, Mike Gesicki and DaeSean Hamilton pass the baton to Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen, Theo Johnosn, Olu Fashanu, KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Drew Allar. The Lions also will field their best offensive line of Franklin's tenure.
Meanwhile, Manny Diaz's defense has a pair of potential first-round picks in end Chop Robinson and cornerback Kalen King, an underrated star in linebacker Curtis Jacobs and one of the Big Ten's most dynamic players in linebacker Abdul Carter. The Lions are loaded and know it. At Big Ten media days, Franklin noted how his staff has built greater depth at every position. Though Franklin says that they "are approaching it the same way we've always approached it," this season begins with higher stakes. So what are reasonable expectations for Penn State in 2023? Our picks.
The Lions should be 6-0 heading to Ohio State
Penn State's roster and schedule are built for 10 regular-season wins at minimum. Even with back-to-back Big Ten games at Illinois and against Iowa in September, the Lions should bring a 6-0 record to Ohio State in October. They have three weeks between conference games against Northwestern and Ohio State (including a bye week and non-conference game against Massachusetts), which is plenty of prep time for the Buckeyes. Heck, they're scouting Ohio State now.
Penn State should beat either Ohio State or Michigan
This represents perhaps less expectation than proof of progression. Franklin is famously 4-14 against the Buckeyes and Wolverines, having never beaten both in the same season. One win brings the Big Ten East title into play, and thus the College Football Playoff. Like Penn State, the Buckeyes are breaking in a new starting quarterback, which will make for a fascinating cross-state challenge (Pennsylvania's Kyle McCord vs. Ohio's Drew Allar). And the Lions get Michigan at home, where they have won two of the last three. Penn State has a real chance to change the narrative here.
This should be the best offensive line in Franklin's tenure
Even beyond left tackle Olu Fashanu, this is a strong group. Six players with starting experience return, ranging from seniors Caedan Wallace, Sal Wormley and Hunter Nourzad to sophomore Drew Shelton. There's talent at every position, young players poised to contribute (Vega Ioane is a name to know) and freshmen continuing to build the foundation. But Fashanu, Penn State's best tackle prospect since Levi Brown, takes this line to special. If Allar doesn't have to worry about the left side collapsing, his learning curve will progress that much faster.
Two 1,000-yard rushers? Why not?
Singleton and Allen last season formed the Big Ten's first freshman duo to rush for at least 800 yards each. As an encore, they certainly could take that to 1,000. Of course, carries will matter: They'll likely need at least 160-170 apiece to have a chance. Last season Singleton and Allen combined for 323 carries, which represented 35 percent of the team's offensive plays. Even with Allar's potential to pile up passing yards, offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich knows how much this backfield should lead the offense. In college football's modern era, Penn State hasn't fielded two 1,000-yard rushers in the same season. Singleton and Allar certainly could be the first.
This is a 45-sack defense
The Lions made a Big Ten-best 43 sacks last season, 16 by Adisa Isaac, Chop Robinson and Abdul Carter, all of whom return. Carter made a team-high 6.5 sacks from the linebacker position as a freshman and will get more pass-rush greenlights this year. One key: Penn State needs a player to fill the third-down specialist role from which Ji'Ayir Brown made 4.5 sacks last year.
Drew Allar finds his lane
Penn State simply doesn't freight its first-year starting quarterbacks with a load of weight. Sean Clifford and Trace McSorley were given long runways, Christian Hackenberg ran a sanctions-impacted offense as a freshman and Rob Bolden, a true-freshman starter, began his career with breathing room. But Allar takes over an offense built to contend for a Big Ten title in which he's the unknown — at least as a starter. Circumstantially, Allar doesn't have the luxury of time to grow into the starter's role as his predecessors did. He has to navigate a potentially tricky September schedule before returning to his home state to face the Buckeyes. It's difficult to remember a recent first-year quarterback at Penn State who began his career with such expectancy. If Allar plays measured games and leads the Lions to a 6-0 record heading to Ohio State, he'll have fulfilled them well through the first half. Then the fun begins.
More on Penn State
Penn State Basketball on SI.com
James Franklin's 10th training camp at Penn State could be his most fascinating
Penn State enters training camp in a 'competition phase' at quarterback
'There is no ceiling here,' Penn State AD Patrick Kraft says of the school's athletics future
How Deion Barnes became a coaching force at Penn State
Penn State stays hot in defensive line recruiting
Former Penn State quarterback Michael Robinson joins NBC's Big Ten broadcast team
Penn State places 11 on Pro Football Focus' preseason All-Big Ten Teams
Olu Fashanu, Penn State's 'elite' offensive tackle, takes the next step
Mike Rhoades and Ace Baldwin, Jr. bring their bond to Penn State
After Penn State's controversial loss to Duke, NCAA expands replay review in men's lacrosse
Talking defense with Penn State's Manny Diaz
Penn State extends recruiting success in Pennsylvania with commitment from 4-star Mylachi Williams
Penn State looks for KeAndre Lambert-Smith to be a No. 1
Breaking down Penn State's 2023 football schedule
Why Penn State having no Big Ten rivalry games might be a good thing for the Lions
AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.
