Penn State vs. Michigan State Prediction: Lions Long for Elusive Home Win

Penn State has never had a winless home season at Beaver Stadium. The Lions host Michigan State seeking to protect that streak.

Penn State turns toward retaining the Land Grant Trophy on Saturday, when it hosts Michigan State in its regular-season finale.

The Lions, who have beaten Michigan State just twice since 2010, appeared to have turned a corner last week with a 23-7 victory over Rutgers. Can that continue? Here's a look.

Take note: Kickoff was changed to noon on ABC.

See you Saturday? pic.twitter.com/rGMkTqpzpU

— Mark Wogenrich (@MarkWogenrich) December 6, 2020

Penn State (2-5) vs. Michigan State (2-4)

When: Noon Saturday

Where: Beaver Stadium

TV: ABC

Series History: Michigan State leads 17-16-1

Last Meeting: Penn State 28-7 in 2019

Betting Line: Penn State is a 15-point favorite

About the Lions: Players learned after practice Thursday that their parents won't be permitted at the game because of new temporary virus-mitigation protocols in Pennsylvania. That means 12 seniors who could be playing their last games at Beaver Stadium won't have families on hand for Senior Day. For the fifth-year seniors who were part of the 2016 recruiting class, and whose first season included a Big Ten title, Saturday will mark quite a career range. "It just makes you really appreciate it more," senior defensive end Shane Simmons said. "Or I do now." Defensive coordinator Brent Pry this week called his group's performance against Rutgers the best of the season. Penn State's linebackers still tackle uneasily in space, but they've done fairly well shutting down gaps the last two weeks. That will be important, because Michigan State's offensive line will bring size and power to Beaver Stadium. Meanwhile, what to make of the quarterbacks? The rotation is likely to continue with Sean Clifford and Will Levis, who has 23 carries and no passing attempts the past two weeks.

About the Spartans: Michigan State is coming off a forlorn 51-12 loss to Ohio State, a game in which quarterback Rocky Lombardi was injured. Lombardi hadn't been great (eight touchdowns, nine interceptions), and perhaps coach Mel Tucker is looking for a reason to try redshirt freshman Payton Thorne as part of his rebuild. Michigan State has shown some situational pep this season, notably in a 29-20 victory over then-unbeaten Northwestern two weeks ago. Still, this is not a threatening offense. Michigan State ranks last in the Big Ten in scoring and total yards and 13th in rushing, with just one rushing touchdown. For an improving Penn State defense, that will be something to attack.

Prediction: Penn State players and coaches sounded as positive and energetic this week as they have all season. Franklin in particular sounded like a new person, leaving the impression that the Lions want to finish this regular season confidently. There's further incentive: Penn State is 0-3 at Beaver Stadium, where it has not had a winless home season. The last time Penn State didn't win a home game was 1918, another season played through a pandemic. The Lions went 0-1-1 at Beaver Field that year. This team ends the home struggle assertively against the Spartans.

Penn State 27, Michigan State 13

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