Penn State-Ohio State Prediction: Still Chasing the Buckeyes
Penn State coach James Franklin's default word when discussing player injuries is "hopeful." That's the most Franklin will say before any game, let alone a visit from No. 2 Ohio State.
Penn State will be "hopeful" for more than good health Saturday at Beaver Stadium. The second-ranked Buckeyes have scored at least 45 points in six consecutive games, the longest single-season streak for a Big Ten team since Michigan in 1903. Their offense delivers boundless skill and depth. Can the Lions even keep pace?
That's the real question of Saturday's 38th meeting between Penn State and Ohio State.
Six Ways Penn State Can Beat Ohio State
No. 13 Penn State (6-1) Vs. No. 2 Ohio State (7-0)
- When: Noon Saturday ET
- Where: Beaver Stadium
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: FuboTV (Start a free trial)
- Betting Line: Ohio State is a 15.5-point favorite, per SI Sportsbook
- Series History: Ohio State leads 23-14
- Last Meeting: Ohio State 33-24 in 2021
- Streaks: Ohio State has won five straight vs. Penn State
The Story Line
Ohio State's offense is the known commodity, and the primary threat, Penn State will confront Saturday. The Buckeyes lead the nation with 47 touchdowns this season. They have a 100-percent red-zone success rate. And they feature the nation's only pass-efficiency rating above 200 (201.19).
So to match that, Penn State has to score. Last week's 45-17 win over Minnesota marked a momentum-building good sign for an offense that had produced 24 points in its previous two games. But the Buckeyes will take things up a notch.
Ohio State has allowed more than 300 yards of offense just once this season (307 to Toledo). Iowa didn't score an offensive touchdown (nothing new there), but the Buckeyes also make series-stopping plays. They lead the nation in fewest first downs allowed (83) and get off the field, ranking second nationally in third-down conversion rates (24.47 percent).
As challenging as Ohio State's offense will be, Penn State faces an ever bigger struggle counter-punching with points of its own.
Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford ranks seventh in the Big Ten in efficiency (146.14). He'll face the nation's most efficient passer Saturday in Ohio State's CJ Stroud (203.85).
Matthew O'Haren/USA Today Sports
Penn State Players to Watch
Sean Clifford: Of course, but he still merits the listing. Clifford is 0-3 vs. Ohio State, having tested the Buckeyes last year with 361 yards passing. But he also fumbled (under heavy pressure) and threw a fourth-quarter interception (under heavy pressure). The Lions need Clifford to walk a high wire across Beaver Stadium without stumbling.
Curtis Jacobs: Following a 14-tackle performance in his best game this season, Jacobs must put on an even better show. The linebacker also must be comfortable switching between both outside roles so the Lions can get freshman Abdul Carter on the field.
Kalen King: Fellow cornerback Joey Porter Jr. will draw the TV focus, but King matters just as much defensively. The Buckeyes have too many receivers to shut down effectively. But King, whom position coach Terry Smith called an "elite" cornerback, has the coverage skill to limit their opportunities.
Ohio State Players to Watch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: A hamstring injury has limited Ohio State's first-round draft pick this season. Coach Ryan Day placed Smith-Njigba on a 20-play pitch count last week vs. Iowa. So long as he's healthy, that count increases Saturday.
Cade Stover: As if Ohio State's offense isn't loaded enough with receivers Marvin Harrison and Emeka Egbuka, Stover leads all Big Ten tight ends with three catches of 30+ yards. Stover (18 receptions) makes enough plays to frustrate defensive coordinators.
Tommy Eichenberg: The 6-2, 235-pound linebacker leads Ohio State in tackles (57), has seven tackles for loss and made a pick-6 vs. Iowa. He's everywhere on the field.
The Prediction
Franklin warned this week that Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud arrives at Beaver Stadium as a Heisman Trophy favorite. Stroud makes plays that Penn State hasn't seen this season. He throws on the move, is unbearably accurate and spreads the ball across an array of weapons. There's no way to stop that.
Penn State must focus on containing Stroud, make him uneasy in a collapsing pocket and try to get him to run. The Lions are at their best defensively on third-and-long, when defensive coordinator Manny Diaz can tap his wellspring of pressure formations. Holding the Buckeyes under 30 points would be a huge victory.
Trouble is, can Penn State score 31? The Lions must play their best offensive game in years, perhaps since the 2019 Cotton Bowl or their 59-0 drubbing of Maryland that season. Penn State has proven itself game in this game recently, but it's usually not enough. Same goes for Saturday.
Ohio State 38, Penn State 24
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