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Penn State-Oregon Preview: Story Lines, Predictions for the Epic Big Ten Game

The Nittany Lions host the Ducks for just the second top-10 game in Penn State White Out history.
Mark Wogenrich|
Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar throws a pass during a warmup prior to the game against the Villanova Wildcats at Beaver Stadium.
Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar throws a pass during a warmup prior to the game against the Villanova Wildcats at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

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Penn State Nittany Lions

While Oregon is promoting its latest funky uniform combination, which includes glow-in-the-dark cleats and a "Mummy Duck" theme, Penn State is leaning into one color for Saturday night's game. You know the one.

The 18th full-stadium White Out in Penn State history promises to be an epic night on the national stage. It's just the second White Out game featuring two teams ranked in the AP top 10 and will be the Big Ten showcase on NBC. Penn State also projects the biggest recruiting weekend in program history.

Meanwhile, the game itself is trending toward a regular-season classic, one that re-fires a long-term narrative involving the Nittany Lions and head coach James Franklin. Let's go to the breakdown and predictions for Penn State vs. Oregon.

RELATED: Will Penn State's defense be ready in time for Oregon?

No. 3 Penn State (3-0) vs. No. 6 Oregon (4-0)

  • When: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Beaver Stadium
  • TV: NBC
  • Streaming: Peacock
  • Betting Line: Penn State is a 3.5-point favorite

RELATED: How to watch, stream the Penn State-Oregon game

The Penn State-Oregon story line

Penn State head coach James Franklin greets quarterback Drew Allar during pre-game warmups at Beaver Stadium.
Penn State head coach James Franklin greets quarterback Drew Allar during pre-game warmups at Beaver Stadium. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

Every social-media expert, college football YouTube specialist and national writer parachuting into Beaver Stadium is wrapping Saturday with the same narrative. Namely that James Franklin and Drew Allar have to prove they can win a "big game."

The narrative isn't meritless. Franklin is 4-20 against AP top-10 teams as Penn State's head coach. He hasn't beaten a top-10 team at home since 2016 (Ohio State). And while they Nittany Lions are 37-8 over the past three seasons, they're 0-6 vs. Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon. The other losses were to Ole Miss (2023 Peach Bowl) and to Notre Dame (2024 CFP semifinal).

Meanwhile, Allar is 1-5 in starts against top-10 teams since 2023. And his stats in those games aren't stellar. Allar has a combined 49.4-percent completion rate through those six games, topping 200 yards passing just once. He has thrown for fewer than 150 yards in three of those games.

ESPN's Pete Thamel dived into the Allar Effect in a lengthy, detalied profile this week, and the Penn State quarterback addressed those ghosts before the season.

"I've talked about a little bit with coach Franklin and [offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki], and for us, we definitely need to get over that hump," Allar said in July. "There's no question about it, but we've also been one of the most consistent programs over his tenure, especially the last 11 years. So our process has been working, but we definitely need to find different ways to come out with different results in those games."

Franklin's top-10 record includes nine losses to Ohio State, his primary Penn State nemesis, and five to Michigan. But the wins don't entirely register among the brand names of college football. Aside from the 2016 upset of No. 2 Ohio State, Penn State's other top-10 wins are against No. 6 Wisconsin in the 2016 Big Ten title game, No. 10 Utah in the 2023 Rose Bowl and No. 9 Boise State in the 2024 College Football Playoff.

To prove Penn State is a national-championship contender, it needs a top-10 win over a brand. Franklin and Allar need that win even more.

RELATED: Drew Allar discusses his progress, Oregon in pregame interview

Penn State Nittany Lions to watch

Penn State Nittany Lions tight end Luke Reynolds reacts on the sideline in a game vs. the Villanova Wildcats.
Penn State Nittany Lions tight end Luke Reynolds (85) reacts on the sideline in a game vs. the Villanova Wildcats. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Tight end Luke Reynolds: The sophomore seeks to challenge Oregon's Kenyon Sadiq as the top tight end on the field. He has been a first-month revelation, become a YAC artist with his 13 receptions (T-2 on the team) and devoting the rest of his snaps to downfield blocking. He's also a former high school quarterback who just might earn a role in the Wildcat offense.

Linebacker Amare Campbell: The North Carolina transfer has settled into Penn State's defense, leading it with 22 tackles that includes three for losses. He also conveys calls from DC Jim Knowles, a spot that will be more difficult with the White Out noise. Campbell's role will be complex as he provides run support, attempts to shorten Sadiq's routes and seeks to keep Oregon quarterback Dante Moore from a pocket escape.

Running back Kaytron Allen: Through three games, he's the No. 1. And as much as he wants to get Nicholas Singleton unbottled, Kotelnicki would do well to build the run game around Allen. The duo was quite successful against Oregon last year, nearly leading a comeback, but Allen is the stronger, more active back this season.

Oregon Ducks to watch

Oregon Ducks receiver Dakorien Moore catches a touchdown pass against Oregon State Beavers defensive back Jalil Tucker.
Oregon Ducks receiver Dakorien Moore catches a touchdown pass against Oregon State Beavers defensive back Jalil Tucker. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Receiver Dakorien Moore: Oregon's wideout rotation will be the first major test for Penn State's secondary, but Moore is the one to watch. The 5-11, 195-pound freshman was the top-ranked receiver in the 2025 recruiting class and has shown playmaking polish ahead of his years. Moore vs. Penn State corners AJ Harris or Audavion Collins is one of the game's top strategic matchups.

Linebacker Matayo Uiagalelei: Oregon has some slick defensive players, notably in linebackers Bryce Boettcher and Teitum Tuioti and safety Dillon Thieneman. But Uiagalelei creates havoc and will stress Penn State's tackles. He already has three sacks, two pass breakups and two quarterback hurries and has been among PFF's top-rated defensive players in the Big Ten.

Center Iapani Laloulu: Oregon went to the portal to address offensive line losses but stood firm with Laloulu inside. According to the Oregon stat package, the center hasn't allowed a sack in 832 career pass-protection snaps. He also has allowed just one pressure in 105 pass-blocking snaps this season. How Penn State attacks Laloulu, either with tackle Zane Durant or even end Dani Dennis-Sutton lined inside, will be intriguing to watch.

Penn State-Oregon predictions

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin looks on from the sideline against the Nevada Wolf Pack.
Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin looks on from the sideline during the second quarter against the Nevada Wolf Pack at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Mark Wogenrich: Unfairly or not, this game rests primarily on Allar's shoulders. He has to be better than 10-for-23 (Michigan 2023), 12-for-20 (Ohio State 2024) and 12-for-23 (Notre Dame 2025). He also has to be better than 16-for-29 (two weeks ago against Villanova). Penn State's defense and special teams appear sharpened for this game. It's all on the offense. We suspect Andy Kotelnicki, Allar and Co. get it done. Penn State 27, Oregon 24

Amanda Vogt: I believe this will be the first time Penn State will have to play without the lead which would be a tough test. The Nittany Lions haven’t faced much adversity yet which is why I think Oregon has a slight advantage, even in a White Out. Oregon 34, Penn State 31

Chase Fisher: Penn State coach James Franklin might say this week is just like any other, but as he’s talked about all offseason, it’s an opportunity for he and his team to change the narrative. Franklin is 4-20 against AP top-10 teams and 3-10 when he has a top-10 team, per ESPN, and it’s all the national media talks about. However, the Nittany Lions have had months to prepare for Oregon, and Saturday’s top-10 matchup is as close to a must-win as a team can get in the regular season. It’s time for Franklin and his team to prevail. Penn State 27, Oregon 23

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Mark Wogenrich
MARK WOGENRICH

Mark Wogenrich is the editor and publisher of Penn State on SI, the site for Nittany Lions sports on the Sports Illustrated network. He has covered Penn State sports for more than two decades across three coaching staffs, three Rose Bowls and one College Football Playoff appearance.

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