Penn State's Spring SP+ Ranking Sheds Light on Matt Campbell's Team

Penn State probably won't be a College Football Playoff contender next season, at least according to the spring edition of ESPN's SP+ rankings. Still, the Nittany Lions earned a favorable set of scores based on limited data regarding what they'll actually look like on the field in 2026.

Penn State ranks 17th in the first installment of Bill Connolly's predictive model that is defined as a "tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency." Connelly's spring update leans on three key points: returning production, recruiting and recent history. And according to the SP+, Penn State grades as a top-20 team regarding those three metrics, though they're complicated to assess regarding this iteration of the Nittany Lions.

Recent history doesn't favor Penn State, which went 7-6 in 2025 after being ranked as high as No. 2 during the season. However, Penn State won 13 games and reached the CFP semifinals the year before, and Connolly projected Penn State as his national champion last season.

We know how that went. Penn State lost its first three Big Ten games, James Franklin was fired and the Nittany Lions replaced him with Matt Campbell. Franklin, whose Virginia Tech team is 32nd in the SP+, recently explained what he would have done differently last season at Penn State.

In discussing Penn State's progress through spring drills, Matt Campbell brought up Duke's loss to UConn and the coaching lessons from that game.

🎥Penn State Athletics pic.twitter.com/SGgJFMW0SK
— Mark Wogenrich (@MarkWogenrich) March 31, 2026

Penn State's 2026 recruiting class, which Campbell stitched together in under two months, ranked 64th nationally, according to the 247Sports Composite. The 15-player class includes 10 players who initially signed with Iowa State, so the recruiting ranking is a compressed blend of classes.

Likewise, Penn State's returning production is largely Iowa State-based. Campbell brought starting quarterback Rocco Becht, leading rusher Carson Hansen, top two receivers Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen and No. 1 tight end Benjamin Brahmer (most of whom are limited this spring, by the way) to Penn State. Even a predictive model will be challenged to translate their Big 12 production to the Big Ten.

According to the 247Sports Composite, Penn State's overall roster rank is 43rd, a number based on the transfers and recruits who signed with the program. That does not include Penn State's 52 returning players who represented some of the program's top young talent of last season.

Interestingly, Penn State's offense ranks 14th in the SP+ efficiency rating, nine points higher than its defense. That likely is a function of the veteran offensive talent Campbell brought with him from Iowa State, along with offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser's system.

Penn State's special teams, which returns coordinator Justin Lustig for a second season, ranks sixth in the SP+ metrics. Lustig guided the nation's top special teams units in 2025, one bright spot of the season. Campbell's most underrated roster move might have been to retain kicker Ryan Barker.

A look at Penn State’s running backs at practice. In order, Carson Hansen, Quinton Martin Jr., James Peoples and Cam Wallace. pic.twitter.com/ApIPklUEud
— Mark Wogenrich (@MarkWogenrich) March 26, 2026

Cornerbacks coach Terry Smith, who is off to a strong recruiting start, largely kept his gifted position group intact. Penn State's highest-graded draft prospect

Two of Penn State's top returners are offensive linemen: Anthony Donkoh and Cooper Cousins, who should control the line's right side next season. Campbell also retained tight end Andrew Rappleyear, linebackers Tony Rojas and Alex Tatsch and defensive end Yvan Kemajou, who made 5.5 tackles for loss last season.

"You're always optimistic that you're going to put the best roster together, and coach Campbell did a great job," Smith said. "Everything starts and stops with him. He was diligent in his approach. [The assistants] underneath him as soldiers brought a lot of creative ideas for him, and he figured out ways how to retain a roster, how to go get new guys to the roster, and then with him putting the staff together so quickly, we were able to pull together a really good roster. We’ve got a chance to be successful next year."

Penn State opens the 2026 season Sept. 5 against Marshall at Beaver Stadium. It's notable that Penn State does not play SP+ darlings Ohio State (No. 1), Oregon (No. 2) or Indiana (No. 5) during the regular season. No wonder college football analysts suggest that Campbell hit the scheduling "jackpot" in his first season at Penn State.

Penn State Nittany Lions football coach Matt Campbell waves to the crowd during a Big Ten wrestling dual meet vs. Nebraska. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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