Penn State Vs. No. 1 Ohio State Tale of the Tape, Predictions

The Nittany Lions head to Ohio State seeking their first win over the Buckeyes since 2016.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer (17) reacts after a touchdown against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the first quarter at Kinnick Stadium. | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Penn State interim coach Terry Smith's latest motivational tool involved Redwood chopping against a team that hasn't been challenged this season. Ohio State has allowed just four touchdowns in seven games, the primary stat suggesting just how steep Penn State's struggle will be Saturday at Ohio Stadium.

“We’ve got to be able to chop a Redwood tree until it’s done, and it’s a hard task and it’s one chop at a time,” Smith said. “We have to believe in those chops and it’ll eventually break through for us, and that’s what our belief is for Saturday.”

This might be the last gasp for Penn State's 2025 season, which began with championship hopes and could end without a bowl game. The Nittany Lions likely have one what-the-heck game left in them against the top-ranked Buckeyes before their roster begins looking in other directions (NFL, transfer portal, etc.).

So here's what to expect from Saturday's Penn State-Ohio State game, and our predictions for the potential upset.

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Penn State's path to an upset

Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Jaxon Rexroth (12) helps tackle Penn State Nittany Lions running back Kaytron Allen (13) at Kinnick Stadium. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Even with its newfound burst of energy and hope, the Nittany Lions face a bad matchup at Ohio State. They bring a well-known one-dimensional offense to Columbus, one featuring running back Kaytron Allen and not much else.

Penn State is starting a redshirt freshman backup quarterback in Ethan Grunkemeyer with a compelling story and a yard-per-attempt average of 5 yards. Smith said this week that he essentially demanded (though he walked back that word) offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to throw downfield. Penn State went 3-for-11 on passes of 5+ yards against Iowa.

Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will be quite comfortable training his front seven on Allen and Nicholas Singleton and giving Grunkemeyer swings at the deep ball. Even before Grunkemeyer took over, Penn State had just six pass plays of 30+ yards this season.

Penn State isn't explosive enough to test Ohio State's defense, so it must rely on Allen, generate long drives and limit the Buckeyes' time of possession. Meanwhile, the defense must somehow get stops against an Ohio State offense that ranks first nationally in completion percentage and eighth in third-down conversion rate.

That's difficult enough, but Penn State's defense, which ranks 61st nationally in stop rate, has made a chronic habit of being unable to get off the field. Ohio State's passing game, led by 80-percent passer Julian Sayin and NFL receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, will make that more difficult.

Thus, Penn State has to manufacture stops through turnovers, penalties, third-down sacks and perhaps even another blocked punt (it has three this season). It's an extremely tall order.

Penn State vs. Ohio State tale of the tape

Penn State	Statistic	Ohio State
355.0	Total Offense	431.4
303.7	Total Defense	216.9
169.6	Rushing Offense	151.7
158.7	Rushing Defense	85.6
58.6	Starting QB Rating	87.9
41.4	Third-Down Conversion %	52.7
+2	Turnover Margin	+5
27:59	Time of Possession	32:23
2.0	Sacks Per Game	3.0
1.0	Sacks Allowed Per Game	0.4

What to know about the Penn State-Ohio State series

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Kaytron Allen (13) is stopped at the goal line by the Ohio State Buckeyes defense during the second half at Beaver Stadium. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ohio State has won eight straight games against Penn State, but their dominance hasn't been overwhelming. The Buckeyes' average margin of victory in those eight games is 6.75 points. Four of the games have been decided by one possession.

Still, Ohio Stadium has not been kind to the Nittany Lions. They are 2-14 in Columbus since joining the Big Ten and haven't won there since 2011. And that game matched a pair of interim head coaches: Penn State's Tom Bradley and Ohio State's Luke Fickell.

Penn State vs. No. 1 teams

Smith, Penn State's interim head coach, played for the Nittany Lions the last time they beat a top-ranked team. That was in 1990, when Penn State beat then-No. 1 Notre Dame 24-21. Smith caught a touchdown pass in that game.

Penn State has lost six straight games to No. 1 teams, four of which were Ohio State. The Buckeyes last beat Penn State as a top-ranked team in 2015 (38-10).

Penn State vs. Ohio State predictions

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin (10) throws a pass during the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. | Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mark Wogenrich: Despite losing to the Buckeyes for a decade, Penn State still makes them nervous. It's uncanny how the Nittany Lions have prompted flopsweat from Ohio State only to fall short time after time. Even James Franklin's 2014 team, whose roster was hamstrung by sanctions, took the eventual national champs to double overtime. So once again, the Nittany Lions will claw at Ohio State for at least a half. But its offensive limitations and lax defense wither in the second half. Ohio State 38, Penn State 10

Amanda Vogt: Despite Terry Smith’s mantras, Ohio State is really that good and will be very tough to “chop down.” I think the environment will make it difficult for Penn State to sustain long drives and it will be tough to prevent the Buckeyes from those large rushing gains. Ohio State 33, Penn State 13

Chase Fisher: Penn State has a tall task on Saturday. It faces the top-ranked scoring defense in the FBS. Oh, and the Nittany Lions have to line up against two of the best wide receivers in the country in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Penn State will certainly give its all. However, the talent difference is too insurmountable, specifically in the matchup between the Nittany Lions' offense and Ohio State’s defense. The Buckeyes win in a game where the score doesn’t tell the entire story. Ohio State 34, Penn State 10