Penn State Vs. UCLA Predictions: How the Nittany Lions Can Get Back on Track

Penn State is a big favorite against the winless Bruins for its first road game of the season.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) looks downfield prior to throwing against the Oregon Ducks at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Last week represented the fork in Penn State’s season. Saturday we’ll begin learning which road the Nittany Lions took.

No. 7 Penn State visits UCLA for its first road game of 2025, which, in hindsight, the schedule plotted perfectly. After the double-overtime loss to Oregon, the Nittany Lions need to get out of State College. Even better, they face a benign Big Ten opponent that might not win a game this season.

What do we know about the Nittany Lions? First, they lost a key player, linebacker Tony Rojas, to a long-term injury that has major ramifications for the defense. In fact, the betting line dropped by a point after the news broke.

Second, they need to run it up on somebody, and Pasadena couldn’t be a better place for that. Our story lines and picks for Saturday's Penn State-UCLA game.

RELATED: How to watch, stream the Penn State-UCLA game

No. 7 Penn State (3-1) vs. UCLA (0-4)

• When: 3:30 pm ET Saturday

• Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

• TV: CBS

• Streaming: Paramount+

• Betting Line: Penn State is a 24.5-point favorite

• Series History: UCLA leads 4-3

• Last Meeting: Penn State 27-11 in 2024

Penn State-UCLA story lines

Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Devonte Ross catches a pass in front of Oregon Ducks defensive back Aaron Flowers. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

• Twenty years ago, Penn State cleansed itself of a bitter loss to Michigan by turning its visit to Illinois the following week into a therapy session. Quarterback Michael Robinson took the Nittany Lions into an amped night game at Memorial Stadium and made sure they left with scalps. Penn State scored 56 points in the first half (Robinson threw four TD passes and ran for two) in a 63-10 win. Drew Allar needs a similar release. UCLA has punted on the 2025 season from an administrative perspective. The players have only so much will to give. Allar and Penn State’s offense need to drain what’s left of that will in the first half.

• Franklin hinted at offensive changes this week. Perhaps that includes a personnel move or two on the offensive line or a different recipe for the passing game. What it should include, though, is a personal challenge to run for 300 yards. UCLA’s run defense ranks last in the Big Ten and 131st in the country. The Bruins’ four opponents, including New Mexico and Northwestern, averaged 232 yards rushing per game and 5.6 per carry. UCLA has allowed 12 touchdown drives of 60+ yards. If Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton both don’t rush for at least 100, that would be alarming.

• UCLA’s offense has scored five touchdowns in four games. It has not scored a first-quarter touchdown all season. And its longest play of the season is 32 yards. The Bruins have shown little capacity to challenge early or rally late, save for their modest comeback vs. Northwestern. Penn State should be leading by four possessions to start the fourth quarter.

RELATED: What happened to Penn State's offense?

Penn State Nittany Lions to watch

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Kaytron Allen runs with the ball for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Villanova Wildcats at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Quarterback Drew Allar: Didn’t expect this to be a pivotal game for Allar, but here we are. He hasn’t completed 60 percent of his passes since the opener and hasn’t thrown for 220 yards yet this season. This is a psychological game for Allar more than mechanical. He needs a get-right performance not just for himself but also for the confidence of those around him.

Kaytron Allen: It’s beyond time for Allen to be the 20-touch running back in Penn State’s offense, with Singleton deployed as the changeup until he reclaims his footing. Allen is the offense’s alpha now and should be treated as such.

Nolan Rucci: Penn State’s right tackle thrived in the postseason after replacing Anthony Donkoh on short notice. But he has lost more than his share of one-on-one duels this season and was the lowest-ranked lineman in the Oregon game, according to Pro Football Focus. Donkoh certainly could move back outside, where he’s likely a better fit, if the situation continues.

UCLA Bruins to watch

UCLA Bruins quarterback Nico Iamaleava (9) throws against the Utah Utes during the second half at Rose Bowl. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Nico Iamaleava: UCLA built its offense, and budget, around the transfer quarterback from Tennessee. Neither has worked. Granted, Iamaleava is doing most of the heavy lifting. He is responsible for 77 percent of the Bruins’ offense, is their leading rusher and has the only rushing touchdown. Also, he has no offensive line. On Saturday, he meets Penn State’s Dani Dennis-Sutton, who will be aching for a sack after Oregon shut him out.

Kwazi Gilmer: The Bruins’ leading receiver has decent size (6-2, 190 pounds) and some playmaking ability. Penn State cornerback AJ Harris, who played a fine game vs. Oregon, can test his coverage skills vs. Gilmer.

Gary Smith III: He dominates the middle of UCLA’s defensive line at 6-5, 340 pounds and has made 1.5 tackles for loss. Interesting leverage matchup for Penn State’s interior line.

Penn State vs. UCLA predictions

UCLA Bruins running back Jalen Berger (0) attempts to push forward with the ball against the Penn State Nittany Lions' defense during their 2024 game at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Mark Wogenrich: Penn State has been frustratingly enigmatic and will remain that way Saturday. Another 10-0 halftime lead, similar to the FIU game, isn’t out of the question. Ultimately, the Nittany Lions win by a comfortable margin but in another uncomfortable way. Penn State 34, UCLA 7

Chase Fisher: When Penn State traveled to LA in 2024 to battle USC, it scored six points in the first half and faced a 14-point deficit. That sluggish start comes with a cross-country road game, and it’ll repeat against UCLA. The Nittany Lions already look lethargic offensively to begin games and it’d be tough to get out of that funk over 2,500 miles across the country. However, they still get the job done. Penn State 31, UCLA 6

Amanda Vogt: While there’s a lot of uncertainty with UCLA because of several interim roles on the coaching staff, Penn State should have a dominant performance. I think last week’s loss should put some more urgency in the offense, and the Nittany Lions make a statement for their first road game. Penn State 42, UCLA 9

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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