Three Keys to a Penn State Upset of No. 2 Indiana

The Nittany Lions face a difficult matchup against the Hoosiers but can carve a narrow path to victory.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer (17) throws a pass during the third quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Penn State and Indiana have taken dramatic leaps in different directions since the start of 2025. The Nittany Lions went backward, going from national-championship contender to winless in Big Ten play. 

The Hoosiers, meanwhile, leaped forward. Head coach Curt Cignetti lifted a team that began the season with the most losses in college football history to No. 2 in the country in just two years at the helm. It’s safe to say Saturday’s game has implications far different than anyone could have expected. 

Penn State, battling for bowl game eligibility, takes on unbeaten Indiana, which is fighting for a bye in the College Football Playoff. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET Saturday on FOX. Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt will be on the call for the second straight week for the Nittany Lions. Here are some keys for Penn State to pull off the upset. 

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Stay ahead of the sticks 

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer (17) hands off to running back Kaytron Allen (13) against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Penn State interim head coach Terry Smith said that Indiana’s defense is similar to that of Manny Diaz at Duke (and formerly Penn State). Smith said that Indiana runs a vertical defense that moves plenty.

“They pride themselves on a lot of movement, getting you behind the sticks, [forcing] second-and-long, third-and-long,” Smith said. “It’s tough to call plays that way.” 

That style of defense will frustrate the Nittany Lions, who aren’t particularly strong on first down. Penn State was inefficient on first down against Ohio State, averaging a mere 3.5 yards per play (the Buckeyes averaged 8.7).  

Without quarterback Drew Allar at the helm, an already struggling passing game took another hit with Ethan Grunkemeyer thrust into action. Grunkemeyer has averaged just 119 passing yards per game in his two starts, and the team has had an inability to throw the ball downfield. If Penn State is consistently in second- or third-and-long, the day will be tiring and unsuccessful. 

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Pressure Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza celebrates after a touchdown during the second half against the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium. | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Pressuring the quarterback has been a key to the game every week for Penn State. The problem is, the Nittany Lions haven’t done it consistently. And that’s a major contributor to their 3-5 record. 

Penn State fans saw first-hand last week what a lack of pressure does to a defense. Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin was able to stay back in the pocket and beat Penn State with explosive plays due to the lack of pressure.  

Indiana ranks eighth in the country in sacks allowed per game (0.8), while Penn State is tied for 102nd in sacks (14). Under coordinator Tom Allen last season, Penn State ranked fifth. Under Diaz in 2023, the Nittany Lions led the nation in sacks.

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza rarely deals with pressure. Getting him off schedule and off the field with pressure would give the Nittany Lions an advantage.

Additionally, Indiana leads the nation in third-down conversion rate (58.2 percent). The Hoosiers sustain drives and wear down defenses. Creating pressure ties directly into getting Indiana off the field on third down.

Force turnovers

Penn State Nittany Lions safety Zakee Wheatley (6) trips up Ohio State Buckeyes running back Bo Jackson (25) at Ohio Stadium. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State saw what forcing turnovers could do last week against No. 1 Ohio State. After defensive end Chaz Coleman recovered and returned a fumble to the Buckeyes’ 13-yard line, the Nittany Lions scored a touchdown and trailed by just three points at halftime. They had momentum.

While it wasn’t enough for Penn State to defeat Ohio State, it was a massive swing. And if the Nittany Lions were able to build on that momentum, the game could have been closer. 

However, Penn State has a tough task Saturday, as Indiana ranks first in the Big Ten and second in the FBS in turnover margin at +12. The Hoosiers have not lost the turnover battle this year and are 15-0 under Cignetti when winning the turnover margin.  

If the Nittany Lions can wreak havoc and force more turnovers than Indiana, they can put the Hoosiers in a position they’ve yet to be this season. And that could make Saturday’s contest a whole lot more interesting.