2026 NFL Mock Draft Based on Odds: Predicting the Top 10 Picks Ahead of Combine

It feels like the Super Bowl was just yesterday, but it's already time for the NFL Combine. The top prospects will start working out at the NFL Combine this Thursday, which means we're free to start looking ahead to April's draft.

One of the great things about the popularization of sports betting is that we have odds to look at, and we can use those odds to help determine the probability of something taking place. In this article, I'm going to do a mock draft of the top 10 picks, but instead of relying on insider information or my evaluation of the top prospects, I'm going to use the available betting odds to predict the top 10 selections.

FanDuel Sportsbook is only offering odds to be the first and second picks, so we don't yet have a ton to go off, but there's enough there for me to make my first mock draft of the season. let's get into it.

2026 NFL Mock Draft Based on Odds

Pick No. 1: Fernando Mendoza - Las Vegas Raiders

Fernando Mendoza is an overwhelming -20000 to be the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, which is an implied probability of 99.5%. Not only is he the Heisman Trophy winner and a National Champion, but with Dante Moore and Trinidad Chambliss going back to school for another year, Mendoza is left as the only option for a Raiders team that's in desperate need of a rookie quarterback.

Pick No. 2: Arvell Reese - New York Jets

FanDuel has released a market for who will be the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, and Arvell Reese is the favorite at -115, an implied probability of 53.49%. The Jets need help in several different positions, but due to a lack of options at quarterback, they'll likely opt for a defensive piece and then wait until next offseason to find their quarterback of the future. Reese racked up 69 combined tackles, 10 for a loss, and 6.5 sacks as a linebacker for Ohio State last year.

Pick No. 3: David Bailey - Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals likely aren't going to look for a quarterback to replace Kyler Murray just quite yet, so a linebacker in David Bailey makes a ton of sense. The Cardinals had one of the worst defenses in football, and the Texas Tech product can go a long way in helping them out on that side of the ball. There is no market to be the No. 3 overall pick, but Bailey is listed at +150 to be the No. 2 pick in April's draft, second on the odds list behind Reese.

Pick No. 4: Francis Mauigoa - Tennessee Titans

The top two teams in the draft aren't likely to select an offensive lineman with their top pick, but it makes sense for the Titans to go that direction. Their rookie quarterback last year, Cam Ward, was running for his life all season long, having to try to play behind the worst offensive line in football. That's no way to develop a young talent at the position, so it's time for the Titans to find him some protection. Mauigoa is listed at 125-1 to be the first pick in the draft, but that's moreso due to the low likelihood of the Raiders selecting an offensive lineman in that spot.

Pick No. 5: Spencer Fano - New York Giants

Spencer Fano is likely the second-best offensive lineman in the draft, so the Giants taking him No. 5 overall makes a ton of sense. The Giants now have young talent at quarterback, wide receiver, and running back, so getting a solid offensive line to help them out is going to be imperative to their success moving forward. Like Mauigoa, he's listed at 125-1 to be the first overall pick, but that's due to his position more than anything else.

Pick No. 6: Rueben Bain Jr. - Cleveland Browns

There's a very real chance that Rueben Bain Jr. is the first non-offensive player to be selected in the draft. He's second on the odds list to be the No. 2 overall pick at +8000, and third on the odds list to be the No. 2 overall pick at +550. The Browns obviously already have Myles Garrett at defensive end, but they may not be able to resist getting him some help in the pass-rush if the Miami Hurricanes defender falls to them in the No. 6 slot.

Pick No. 7: Caleb Downs - Washington Commanders

Caleb Downs, the safety from Ohio State, is the top-ranked defensive back in the draft, so it would make a lot of sense for the Commanders to scoop him up at No. 7 after they had one of the worst secondaries in the league in 2025. Downs is a distant third on the odds list to be selected No. 2 overall at +5000, which makes him a likely option around this range of the draft, five picks later.

Pick No. 8: Sonny Styles - New Orleans Saints

With betting odds on just the first two picks in the draft, this is the time when it becomes harder to predict who will be selected until more odds come out closer to April. Still, Sonny Styles is a great fit at linebacker for the New Orleans Saints. He's 125-1 to be the No. 2 overall pick, but with this being a linebacker-heavy top of the draft, he's going to be a strong option if a few of the other names are already off the board.

Pick No. 9: Jordan Tyson - Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs need to get Patrick Mahomes some very real help at wide receiver, so this pick makes all the sense in the world. While the odds for the first wide receiver off the board aren't yet available, Jordan Tyson from Arizona State is likely to be the betting favorite once those odds are released.

Pick No. 10: Jermod McCoy - Cincinnati Bengals

Jermod McCoy is looked at by many as the second-best defensive back in this year's draft. The Tennessee Volunteer is listed at 125-1 to be the No. 2 pick in the draft, but if he falls to the Bengals at No. 10, I think they'll scoop him up. The Bengals' defense has held back this team for too long, so it's time to make some moves to fix that side of the football.

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