What to Make of This Penn State Football Team? Predicting All 12 Games for 2026

Matt Campbell's first season with the Nittany Lions is difficult to forecast, but there are some clues.

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell looks on from the field during practice at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

One thing that becomes apparent following a coaching change is that, more than usual, nobody knows anything. You can guess the contours of a team, but a complete roster overhaul, a new coaching staff and a lot of outright unknowns make “what do you think will happen in November” a big fat guess.

So sure, let’s just guess about the 2026 Penn State football season.

I do think you can assume a few things. Penn State enters the season with an established coach/quarterback relationship and options, though somewhat unproven ones, at most offensive positions. The line should be fine, but might take a bit to come together. The defense will be anchored around Tony Rojas and a deep list of options in the secondary but without obvious big names up front.

What does that work out to be? Probably a 10-win team with this schedule. Let’s take a look.

WIN: Sept. 5 vs. Marshall | Loss Threat: Small

Penn State Nittany Lions football head coach Matt Campbell jogs at the start of practice inside Holuba Hall. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

A different version of this game would have put James Franklin against former assistant Charles Huff, but Franklin is gone and Huff is in his first year at Memphis after a stop at Southern Miss.

Penn State has had its fair share of Week 1 scares over the years, but that usually requires the other teams to be any good. Marshall is not particularly good, so we’re going to assume that whatever Week 1 issues Penn State has, its talent will overcome them.

WIN: Sept. 12 at Temple | Loss Threat: Small

Temple Owls head coach K.C. Keeler on the sideline against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Temple has been waiting to make the most of another home game against Penn State since knocking off the Nittany Lions in 2015. Temple has always been this “what if?” program within the state, but the Owls have never been able to make the most of the momentum Al Golden and Matt Rhule generated. 

This game always stands to be one of those emotional regional rivalry contests that can make things closer than they should be. But this shouldn’t be close when it’s all said and done.

WIN: Sept. 19 vs. Buffalo | Loss Threat: Small

There was a time when Buffalo looked like one of those sneaky mid-major programs that would never make the playoffs but always give "good” teams a run for their money. Those days are largely behind Buffalo, but MAC programs are always down to make things challenging. If Penn State improves through its two weeks, this isn’t the game to worry about. Buffalo went 9-4 in 2024 but has won eight total games in the season before and the season after.

WIN: Sept. 26 vs. Wisconsin | Loss Threat: Medium

Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell is shown during football practice at Camp Randall Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

This is a wildly compelling game for Matt Campbell and Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell. In many respects, this is a “prove-it” moment for both coaches but for different reasons. Fickell is going to be coaching for his job this season, while Campbell will be up against the first version of “these are the games Franklin always won.” And if nothing else, it’s his first Big Ten moment.

Campbell will have some rope to work with if Penn State stumbles in this game given the roster changes and general transitional turmoil, but this is also a moment to prove his worth at the wheel. The deciding factors here will be Campbell and Rocco Becht, a coach and his quarterback knowing how to get the job done. That goes up against Fickell and a TBD starter, although that TBD will probably turn into Old Dominion/Ricky Rahne transfer Colton Joseph.

WIN: Oct. 2 at Northwestern | Loss Threat: Medium

Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun celebrates with his players after a touchdown against the Purdue Boilermakers. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

David Braun seems like the kind of coach who can get Northwestern somewhere better than the basement. Northwestern is trying to build something in this new era of college athletics, and between a new stadium and improved financial resources, it might be able to. 

While they can’t overcome their own academic standards, the Wildcats aren’t getting left behind without a fight. Penn State knows that stadium openings don’t always come with wins — the 2001 Beaver Stadium expansion game against Miami was a drubbing — but emotions are worth something in these settings.

LOSS: Oct. 10 vs. USC | Loss Threat: High

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley celebrates after a field goal againsts the Michigan Wolverines at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn left USC for the same job at his alma mater. Whether his understanding of USC’s offense is an asset remains to be seen, but this is another big test for Campbell. USC brings in the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation, playoff aspirations, a returning starting quarterback and one of the more aggressive offensive-minded head coaches in college football.

There are so many things we don’t know about this Penn State team that it’s impossible to really parse out the strengths and weaknesses of a group that hasn’t played a game together yet.

For that reason, I’m going to pick Penn State to lose this one. USC has to travel across the country, but sooner or later Penn State is going to have rent come due with whatever issues it has gotten away with to this point.

“Not designed to hang 50 on people every week” is probably a bug, not a feature, of Penn State’s offense. Especially if USC is on track to put up points at its usual pace. Fifty is not a literal thing, but it does speak to potency.

LOSS:  Oct. 17 at Michigan | Loss Threat: High

Michigan Wolverines head coach Kyle Whittingham runs across the field during the spring game at Michigan Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

I’m a big Kyle Whittingham guy and a big believer that Michigan can become an even more problematic force in the Big Ten for Penn State and the conference at-large if it is run, and coached, by someone who is not a complete nutcase. I think Campbell is a good coach, and I think Penn State is going to be good enough to win a lot of games this year. 

I also think this team isn’t the one to fix all Penn State’s historical issues at once. I’m chalking this up as a loss, not so much because I think Penn State is obviously worse than Michigan, but because I can’t endorse a team I know very little about just winning a ton of games and winning ones better Penn State teams have struggled to in the past.

If you want more practical reasons: Whittingham is good, the Wolverines are talented and the game is on the road.

WIN: Oct. 31 vs. Purdue | Loss Threat: Low

Purdue is chasing down Rutgers/Maryland/Northwestern for the bottom rung in the league. A lot would have to go wrong for this to be up for grabs.

WIN: Nov. 7 at Washington | Loss Threat: Medium

Washington Huskies head coach Jedd Fisch holds the LA Bowl championship belt after defeating the Boise State Broncos at SoFi Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The road-trip-out-West thing can’t be an issue for everyone forever. Jedd Fisch did well in his second season on the job to win nine games, but the Huskies are not nearly as threatening as they were in years past. 

Fisch will call plays this year for Washington. The Huskies play four of their final games on the road, so this home game is a rarity for Washington. The program added a ton of transfers in the offseason, so how accurate this prediction is will come down to them as much as anything.

WIN: Nov. 14 vs. Minnesota | Loss Threat: Medium

Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach PJ Fleck waves to fans at Spartan Stadium before playing Michigan State. | USA TODAY Sports

PJ Fleck has mastered the art of getting to eight wins, and this time around should be no different. Minnesota is a tough out and plays hard, but it’s not easy to imagine the Gophers stealing this one. Minnesota plays at Indiana two weeks prior, so we’ll learn a bit about this squad then. In the meantime, Penn State should be rounding back into form. The Gophers will fight, but it won’t be enough.

WIN: Nov. 21 vs. Rutgers | Loss Threat: Low

Another status-quo game for Matt Campbell.

WIN: Nov. 28 at Maryland | Loss Threat: Low

And another status-quo game for Matt Campbell.

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