Why Penn State's 2026 Season Is 'Seemingly Impossible' to Predict

The Nittany Lions could be one of the Big Ten's best stories or one of its average teams.

Penn State Nittany Lions coach Matt Campbell watches the action from behind the line of scrimmage during practice at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State's 2025 football season began with so much narrative clarity. The Nittany Lions retained their starting quarterback, returned a seasoned roster filled with potential All-Americans and hired a defensive coordinator in Jim Knowles whom James Franklin called "arguably the best" in college football.

Those national-championship predictions melted beneath three straight Big Ten losses that prompted Franklin's firing and reset the entire program. Matt Campbell arrived at Penn State to undertake a massive roster rebuild, during which he brought in 55 new players, 40 of them transfers from 17 different schools.

As a result, Penn State's 2026 season is much more difficult to project. ESPN's Bill Connelly illustrated this point with his Big Ten preview that includes a muddy view of the Nittany Lions.

Connolly ranks Penn State 17th nationally and sixth in a top-heavy Big Ten that includes three of his top-five teams overall: Ohio State at No. 1, Oregon at No. 2 and Indiana at No. 5. However...

'Penn State is seemingly impossible to project, especially since the Nittany Lions will be more Iowa State than PSU this season under new coach Matt Campbell," Connelly wrote. "They could indeed be a borderline top-15 team or they could stumble out of the top 40 — neither would surprise me much."

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht looks to throw a pass on the run during practice at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Indeed, Penn State is an enigmatic team gathering higher expectations based more on its schedule than its roster. Statistically, Penn State brings a mid-level roster, from a recruiting rankings perspective, into one of the easiest Big Ten schedules. Connelly ranks Penn State's strength of schedule 59th nationally and conditionally as the friendliest in the Big Ten, since it does not include Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana.

According to the 247Sports Composite, Penn State's incoming 2026 class (recruits and transfers) ranks 34th nationally and eighth in the Big Ten. In the long term that's a concern, since Penn State's hastily assembled 2026 recruiting class ranked 65th nationally.

However, Penn State brought in the nation's fourth-ranked transfer class, helmed by 24 former Iowa State Cyclones, including fourth-year starting quarterback Rocco Becht. Who just happens to be the most experienced quarterback in the FBS.

Penn State's overall SP+ rating (15.6) is not far behind that of Michigan (16), which the Nittany Lions will visit in October. Connelly gives Penn State a 99.2-percent chance to win six games (highly likely) but a 13.6-percent chance to win 11+.

Because of that Big Ten schedule, against a roster of eight opponents that went a combined 72-77 last season, the Nittany Lions have the fourth-highest conference-wins average (6.2) in the Big Ten.

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Carson Hansen (21) runs with the ball during practice at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State's biggest positives are:

• A highly galvanized offense that brought its coordinator and five potential starters from Iowa State.

• A quarterback in Becht who leads returning FBS signal-callers with 26 career wins.

• A defensive coordinator in D'Anton Lynn who understands Big Ten offenses from a West Coast perspsctive (having coached at USC the past two seasons) and built a personnel package to compete right away.

However, the Nittany Lions also have some concerns:

• A wide receivers room with five transfers (albeit two who were Iowa State's leading wideouts last season) that already is on its second coach in Kashif Moore.

• A completely overhauled defensive line with seven transfers and no lead edge rusher.

• A backup quarterback situation behind Becht that is tenuous at best, with only one player who has thrown an FBS pass. And he (Alex Manske) missed spring drills while recovering from an injury.

To be a College Football Playoff contender, Penn State must capitalize on that schedule. Connelly noted this by calling the Oct. 10 Penn State-USC game at Beaver Stadium an "elimination game of sorts."

"PSU could announce itself as a dark horse with a win here, and USC, coming off home games against Oregon and Washington, will either be trying to stay in the title race or simply stay afloat," Connelly wrote.

Campbell himself said that it's "too early too tell" whether Penn State will contend for a playoff spot.

"Are we ready? Are we capable?" Campbell said. "We had a lot of injuries, and a lot of guys didn't practice this spring, so did we gain real momentum? I think this is a team that, if it’s going to reach its full potential, it's going to have to be able to be its best.

"Sometimes being your best is being a little lucky with injuries, being groomed to be its best physically and play its best in critical moments. I think those things are still out there. Like, what kind of team are we really? I think fall camp will tell us a lot more about who we are and where we're at."

The Nittany Lions open training camp in early August and their compelling first season under Campbell against Marshall on Sept. 5 at Beaver Stadium.

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell looks on from the field during practice at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

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