Why Matt Campbell Could Lead Penn State to the Playoff in Year 1

Campbell has the quarterback, the offensive continuity and the schedule to lead the Nittany Lions to the College Football Playoff.

Penn State Nittany Lions football head coach Matt Campbell waves to the crowd during a Big Ten wrestling match against Nebraska. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Matt Campbell is entering his third month as Penn State's football coach with the roster-building process largely complete. Penn State's 103-player roster is almost evenly split between returnees and new players, more of whom will arrive when the rest of the 2026 recruiting class signs.

Now that the rebuilding rush is complete, it's a good time to assess where Penn State and Campbell stand heading into their first season together. Based on a variety of factors, Campbell has a chance to pitch the Nittany Lions as a success story in Year 1 — and maybe even a College Footall Playoff contender.

Campbell isn't starting from scratch

Penn State Nittany Lions football coach Matt Campbell speaks at a press conference at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Despite losing six straight games in an ultimately frustrating season, the Nittany Lions could claim themselves to being thisclose in most of those. As interim head coach, Terry Smith called them "blades-of-grass" losses, referencing the fumble that wasn't against Oregon.

Penn State loss in double overtime to the Ducks, in an outlier game against UCLA and to Indiana on Fernando Mendoza's last-minute miracle touchdown pass. Smith led Penn State to four straight wins to close the season, including a Pinstripe Bowl victory over Clemson that he called the greatest moment of his life.

Campbell certainly revamped the roster, bringing in 40 players from the transfer portal, including 24 from Iowa State. However, he also retained 51 players from Penn State's 2025 roster, notably some of the most impactful like linebacker Tony Rojas, offensive linemen Anthony Donkoh and Cooper Cousins, tight end Andrew Rappleyea, receiver Koby Howard and three key cornerbacks.

Campbell's most important retention move was re-signing Smith as the program's assistant head coach and cornerbacks coach. Smith provides more than an emotional bridge between staffs. He's one of the nation's top position coaches and recruiters and a cultural touchstone of the Penn State program.

Campbell didn't take over a 3-9 program that needed to be demolished and restarted. He's tasked with re-awakening a team that lost its way under enormous expectations. Those kinds of transitions can move quickly, especially when other pieces are in place.

Campbell has his quarterback

Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell celebrates with quarterback Rocco Becht (3) after defeating the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

From the moment he was introduced as Penn State's coach, Campbell seemed to know he had his quarterback. Rocco Becht is one of the most experienced, and effective, returning quarterbacks in college football.

The former Iowa State quarterback made 39 starts, winning 26 games, in three years at the helm. He enters the 2026 season as one of nine FBS quarterbacks with at least 9,200 career passing yards at 64 touchdown passes. His completion percentage (60.6 percent) ranked third all-time at Iowa State.

Yes, Becht had offseason surgery to address an injury in his non-throwing shoulder, but it shouldn't be a lingering issue. A fourth-year starting quarterback is a luxury for any coach, and having Becht on board smooths the transition. Plus, the two seem to have smart rapport.

"We were listening to him talk yesterday, and something about him changed," Becht told ESPN's Pete Thamel. "He's got the resources and people behind him and a program behind him to do what he wants to do — compete for a national championship."

Campbell has his trusted offensive staff

Goooooooooooooooaaaaaaaaaaaaaaallllllll 🍻 #WeAre pic.twitter.com/QDgggLYy71

— ROAR+ (@ROARPlusPSU) January 31, 2026

That's offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser (left) and offensive line coach Ryan Clanton guzzling beers, and crushing the cans on their heads, at the Penn State-Michigan State hockey game. Clearly, they're already popular in State College.

They're also trusted members of Campbell's staff. Mouser has been with Campbell since 2015 as a graduate assistant, recruiting coordinator, tight ends coach and offensive coordinator. He directed the Cyclones' 2024 offense that averaged 31 points per game.

Clanton, meanwhile, has been with Campbell since 2023 and helped develop a line that increased its run-game production by nearly 70 yards per game from 2023-25. He has learned from Chip Kelly (playing offensive line for him at Oregon) and has built a strong bond with Campbell.

Further, Campbell brought his quarterbacks coach (Jake Waters) and receivers coach (Noah Pauley) along with a big group of offensive starters. How Iowa State's offense imports to the Big Ten will be a question into September, but the pieces are in place for a quick transition.

Campbell hired one of the nation's best defensive coordinators

There’s no one better to establish the 𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐲 of this defense better than @dantonlynn.

The @PennStateFball alum is back home as defensive coordinator of the Nittany Lions and ready to work.

📺 https://t.co/2Q4Hp6kAUV#WeAre pic.twitter.com/nQn9twX6RS

— ROAR+ (@ROARPlusPSU) February 2, 2026

Penn State was D'Anton Lynn's first stop in college football and likely will be his last stop before becoming a head coach. The former Penn State cornerback returns to his alma mater as defensive coordinator after three years in Los Angeles (one at UCLA, two at USC).

What Lynn did with UCLA's defense was remarkable. The Bruins ranked 90th nationally in scoring in 2022. Under Lynn in 2023, they were 14th. USC coach Lincoln Riley sought to retain Lynn for a third season, but Campbell evidently made a strong pitch.

Lynn faces a bigger project than the offensive staff. Nine defensive starters are gone, notably the entire line, and he'll have to unwind the residue of Jim Knowles' complex system. But Lynn has proven skilled at rebuilds, and performing another at Penn State could get him a head-coaching job soon.

Campbell has the right schedule

"If you would have known this schedule before this hiring process, guys would have clamored to take the [job.]"

More from @joelklatt on who he feels won the schedule lottery in the Big Ten. Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/W9UthECEJd

— The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football on FOX Pod (@JoelKlattShow) February 2, 2026

Penn State hit the Big Ten scheduling "jackpot" in Campbell's first season, according to FOX Sports' Joel Klatt. No Indiana, Ohio State or Oregon in his first season. No Illinois or Iowa, either.

Penn State's nine Big Ten opponents went a combined 33-48 in conference play last season. Of the six Big Ten teams that didn't play in a bowl game, four are on the Nittany Lions' schedule. And while Ohio State visits Texas for a non-conference game, Penn State will play a de facto home game against Temple at Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field.

From a scheduling perspective, this one represents a soft landing for Penn State and a gentle runway for Campbell. And it's one of the most important pieces to a quick turnaround.

What happens next for Penn State? Stay on top of all the Nittany Lions news by subscribing to the Penn State on SI Daily Digest. The newsletter is your free daily window into Penn State sports.