No. 1 Penn State vs. No. 3 Iowa Wrestling: Tale of the Tape

Top-ranked Penn State returns to Carver-Hawkeye Arena on Friday for one of the most anticipated college wrestling matches of the season. The undefeated Nittany Lions face third-ranked Iowa seeking their 79th consecutive victory and fifth straight over the Hawkeyes.

Penn State has won an NCAA-record 78 straight matches since losing in Iowa City in 2000. The last two Penn State-Iowa matches haven't been close, with Cael Sanderson's Nittany Lions winning by a combined score of 59-14.

Will this one be closer? Here's a look at the 10 projected bouts, followed by a prediction. Rankings are courtesy of InterMat Wrestling.

125 Pounds: No. 2 Luke Lilledahl (Penn State) vs. No. 6 Dean Peterson

Luke Lilledahl of Penn State wrestles Marcello Milani of Cornell during Day 1 of the NCAA Wrestling Championships. — Luke Lilledahl of Penn State wrestles Marcello Milani of Cornell during Day 1 of the NCAA Wrestling Championships at Wells Fargo Center. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Lilledahl (9-0) looks for some revenge vs. Peterson, who beat him 1-0 in a dual last season while wrestling for Rutgers. The Penn State sophomore has wrestled some closer bouts of late, scoring three decisions after beginning the season with nine bonus-point wins.

Peterson (7-1) has a top-10 win over Oklahoma State's Tony Spratley but was pinned in the first period by Ohio State's Nic Bouzakis at the National Duals.

133: No. 4 Marcus Blaze (Penn State) vs. No. 8 Drake Ayala

This should be a fascinating bout between one of the nation's top freshmen in Blaze and a two-time NCAA runner-up in Ayala. Blaze (11-0) has scored bonus points in every bout, pinned four opponents and beat five ranked wrestlers. He pinned then-No. 6 Tyler Knox of Stanford.

Ayala, who reached two NCAA finals at 125, is having a harder time at 133. He's 4-4 in his first at the weight class and enters Friday's match following consecutive losses to top-10 wrestlers.

141: No. 7 Braeden Davis (Penn State) vs. No. 11 Nasir Bailey

Davis' planned redshirt changed course following a season-ending injury to former starter Aaron Nagao. But Davis (5-0) steps into the weight class having won a Big Ten title (at 125) as a freshman and placing fifth (at 133) at NCAAs last season.

Davis defeated Bailey 1-0 at the 2024 Journeymen Collegiate Duals when Bailey was at Little Rock and both were at 133. Bailey (9-5) is 21-12 in his career vs. ranked opponents.

149: No. 1 Shayne Van Ness (Penn State) vs. No. 17 Ryder Block

Shayne Van Ness of Penn State wrestles Gabe Willochell of Wyoming during the NCAA Wrestling Championships. — Shayne Van Ness of Penn State wrestles Gabe Willochell of Wyoming during the NCAA Wrestling Championships at Wells Fargo Center. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

This is perhaps the first weight class where Penn State holds a sizable advantage. Van Ness (10-0) has been dominant, with four pins and four technical falls, and is facing a first-year starter in Block (6-2). Block, though, is 4-4 vs. ranked opponents and has a 2-1 decision over then-No. 2 Paniro Johnson of Iowa State.

157: No. 3 PJ Duke (Penn State) vs. No. 12 Jordan Williams

Duke is Penn State's other remarkable freshman, spinning a phenomenal freestyle season into a potential NCAA title run at a loaded weight class. Duke (9-0) beat five ranked opponents on his way to No. 3, including a 5-2 decision of then-No. 5 Daniel Cardenas of Stanford. Williams, a two-time NCAA qualifier at 149 at Oklahoma State and Little Rock, is 8-2 in his first season with the Hawkeyes.

165: No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (Penn State) vs. No. 3 Michael Caliendo

Penn State's Mitchell Meenbrink controls Iowa's Michael Caliendo during a match at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. — Penn State's Mitchell Meenbrink, right, controls Iowa's Michael Caliendo during a match at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK

Mesenbrink (11-0) and Caliendo (9-1) renew a very one-sided series Friday. Mesenbrink is 6-0 vs. Caliendo, including an 8-1 decision for the 165-pound NCAA title last season. Mesenbrink has two technical falls and a major decision in those six wins. Otherwise, Caliendo is a three-time All-American with a 44-9 record against ranked opponents. In Flowrestling's pound-for-pound rankings, Mesenbrink is first and Caliendo is sixth.

174: No. 1 Levi Haines (Penn State) vs. No. 3 Patrick Kennedy

Haines beat Kennedy twice last season, including an 11-3 major decision in the third-place match at NCAAs. They're on course for multiple meeting this year at Big Tens and NCAAs once again. Haines, a three-time All-American and 2024 NCAA champ, is 10-0 with 10 bonus-point victories. Kennedy is 9-1 with an OT loss to Iowa State's M.J. Gaitan

184: No. 4 Rocco Welsh (Penn State) vs. No. 1 Angelo Ferrari

Iowa’s Angelo Ferrari reacts after defeating Wisconsin’s Caleb Dennee by technical fall in a 184-pound match. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This should be one of the match's better bouts. Ferrari, a redshirt freshman, is 20-1 in his career (9-0 this season) and 7-1 against ranked opponents. His only loss was a 2-1 decision to Carter Starocci, Penn State's five-time NCAA champ. Welsh (9-0) is off to a great start to his Penn State career after transferring from Ohio State, where he was a 2024 NCAA finalist and where he, coincidentally, lost to Starocci. Both are title contenders.

197: No. 1 Josh Barr (Penn State) vs. Harvey Ludington

Another huge advantage for Penn State, which sends out an undefeated returning NCAA finalist against a freshman who is 8-1. Barr (8-0) leads the Nittany Lions with five technical falls this season. He missed the beginning of the season recovering from an October injury sustained at the U23 World Championships.

285: No. 13 Cole Mirasola (Penn State) vs. No. 5 Ben Kueter

This is the lone weight class where Iowa holds a decided advantage, though Kueter (3-1) hasn't wrestled much this season. He missed more than a month between matches, returning Jan. 9 for a 4-1, sudden-victory decision over Wisconsin's ninth-ranked Braxton Amos. Mirasola (8-2) definitely is a light heavyweight, weighing in the mid-220s, but has a pair of wins over ranked opponents.

Penn State vs. Iowa prediction

Penn State Nittany Lions Wrestling head coach Cael Sanderson looks on during the U.S. Olympic Wrestling Team Trials. — Penn State Nittany Lions Wrestling head coach Cael Sanderson looks on during the U.S. Olympic Wrestling Team Trials at Bryce Jordan Center. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State has been a bonus-point machine this season, combining for 75 pins or technical falls. The Nittany Lions probably won't bulldoze the Iowa lineup like that, though their advantages are significant.

Barr and Van Ness should provide bonus points, and several of the apparent toss-up bouts favor Penn State (Lilledahl at 125, Davis at 141, Haines at 174). Iowa needs to score wins over both Penn State freshmen, get a win from Ferrari and take bonus points at 285 to have a chance. This should be closer than last season, but Penn State still wins its 79th straight match. Penn State 24, Iowa 10

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