Pitt Needs to Counter Vanderbilt's Size with Speed and Execution
PITTSBURGH -- The Pitt Panthers are headed down south for the conclusion of a home-and-home series with Vanderbilt that began last season with a 68-52 victory at the Petersen Events Center.
The Panthers are currently 4.5-point underdogs to the 4-4 Commodores, which seems odd at first glance but don't let their record fool you. This is a stronger team than the win-loss total would indicate but it is the losses that tell you more than the wins do. Part of that is because they've lost to better teams than they've beaten but in those losses, they've done what they do well at an uncharacteristically poor level.
The Commodores are an extremely efficient team from two-point range, making 94% of their dunks, 58% of their close 2-point attempts and 39% of their long 2-point shots. That's largely a product of their great size. Vanderbilt's top seven players by usage rate average 6'7, led by seven-footer Liam Robbins, who makes 73% of his total 2-pointers.
In all four of their losses, the Commodores shot below the Division I average from that range and the results speak for themselves. They're undefeated when surpassing that mark.
The Commodores can also defend - 66th in adjusted defense, 42nd in 3-point defense and 40th in block percentage - but didn't do that in losses to Memphis, St. Mary's or VCU or a two-point overtime win over Temple. In those games, their interior defense was subpar and it allowed their opponents to play easy, efficient offense.
The average KenPom rating of the four opponents Vanderbilt has lost to is 82.25 and while a 12-point defeat at home to Southern Miss is somewhat unforgivable, tight bouts with Memphis, St. Mary's and VCU are. They have, after all, played the 59th toughest schedule in Division I so far this year.
This team is better than their record reflects but beatable. Everything Pitt needs to do - defend the paint well, defensive rebound to create and move the ball to get open looks from deep - they're capable of. All that's left is to execute, which the Panthers have done during their five-game win streak.
After the start they got off to - and really the last four years of this program's history - I don't think Pitt takes anyone lightly. But this is the kind of opponent they really can't mess around with - a beatable high-major on the road while momentum is building.
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