Every Pac-12 team's ceiling in 2023

The upcoming season of Pac-12 football, which should be one of the most interesting storylines in all of college football, has frequently been overshadowed by realignment and media rights happenings, or in the case of the Pac-12, not-happenings.

However, the conference has some of the most exciting players in all of college football littered throughout, and it is also home to some of the best teams in college football. In every article about the Pac-12, there are references to how many teams can compete for the conference title or even fight for a spot in the playoff. The only issue with that is not every team in the Pac-12 is accounted for.

That is why I will break down what I think every team in the conference's ceiling realistically is with the following categories: CFP, Pac-12 Champion, New Year's Six Bowl Game, Pac-12 Championship Appearance, winning a bowl game, or just making a bowl game of any kind. Obviously certain teams would be happy to surpass around three wins, but this is the absolute ceiling if everything falls each team's way.

Stanford

Ceiling: Bowl Game Appearance

Stanford is projected to muster just two win s on the season and are one of the least experienced teams in the country. Their offense is essentially replacing the entire line from a year ago, the quarterback, and their best receivers while the defense lost their linebackers and the entire secondary. However, this exercise is regarding the best case scenario, with everything going right for Troy Taylor in year one. Taylor is an offensive savant who specializes in making things happen on offense. If he can get consistent quarterback play, the Cardinal have one of the best tight ends in the country in Benjamin Yurosek and also have a very underrated running back in EJ Smith who can cause some damage. To make a bowl game you either have to win six games, or technically they could make it with five wins if they have the highest Academic Progress Rate. Stanford unfortunately plays many of the top teams, but they also get to play some bottom feeders as well.

Cal

Ceiling: Bowl Game Appearance

Cal had some close calls that didn't go their way a year ago that were the difference between them winning six games and them finishing with the four wins they have. They have one of the best running backs in the country in Jadyn Ott, and should have an improved offensive unit thanks to play caller Jake Spavital. Sam Jackson V has a huge arm, and is as fast as they come at quarterback. Their issue is always the defense not getting consistent help from the offense, so even an above average offense should get them bowling if the defense holds up.

Colorado

Ceiling: Bowl Game Appearance

Obviously with Deion Sanders and all of the new talented faces he has brought in, Colorado's ceiling has been as high as it has been for a decade. The roster has been revamped, but realistically their strength of schedule will make it harder for them to to ascend past this point. They have a brutal non-conference slate followed by a couple of the best teams in the conference and maybe even the country. If you asked me their ceiling for 2024, it would likely be higher but for now six wins seems fair.

Arizona State

Ceiling: Bowl Game Appearance

Similar to the other programs that got a new coach this offseason the ceiling for the Sun Devils isn't too high. They had a lot of roster issues prior to Kenny Dillingham's hire, and while he did do a good job of adding talent this team isn't in a position to exceed this threshold. As a program I love their upside, but year one should have some bumps.

Arizona

Ceiling: Win a Bowl Game

Arizona was so close to reaching a bowl game last season, coming up short by one game and there were multiple games throughout the year that they would have liked to have back. I think this is the year that JedD Fisch gets them there. They have a talented gunslinger in Jaden de Laura complimented by two great receivers. An average defense gets them over the hump. They finished No. 125 in total defense a year ago, meaning if they could realistically be somewhere in the 80-90 range their 5-7 record could flip to 7-5 with a bowl in their future.

Washington State

Ceiling: Win a Bowl Game

The Cougars are a mystery team all around, and I'm not sure if I can commit to considering them a dark horse for a Pac-12 Championship appearance.They lost both coordinators, but I still foresee an eight or nine win season, and another bowl game in their future. I don't trust their offensive line to protect Cam Ward enough, and they unfortunately catch Oregon, Utah, UCLA, and Washington on the road. If they had a better offensive line and a better defensive unit they could have been higher.

UCLA

Ceiling: Win a Bowl Game

UCLA had their best team in the Chip Kelly era a year ago, and they still came up short of making it to the Pac-12 Championship. With less certainty at quarterback now with Dorian Thompson-Robinson gone, and a defense that doesn't wow me, I cannot put them any higher than this. That's not to say they won't win eight or nine games, but that won't get it done next season.

Oregon State

Ceiling: New Year's Six Bowl Game

I am drinking the Beaver Kool-Aid, and am fully confident that with an improved quarterback they can win the Pac-12. Last year we saw both Utah and USC make New Year's Six Bowl Games, and I personally think that DJ Uiagalelei is light years better than their quarterback situation a year ago that led them to 10 wins. They have a better quarterback, good run game, and a stout defense which is a recipe for success. They are a borderline playoff team, but I think realistically they lose a game or two they shouldn't.

Oregon

Ceiling: New Year's Six Bowl Game

Despite doubts as to how good Bo Nix will be without Kenny Dillingham, this Oregon program is just too hot to handle. They have bloodbath of a schedule from the end of October through November, but they will be battle tested. I don't think they are a playoff team, but they are right on the cusp of that being their ceiling thanks to the offensive firepower they return.

Washington

Ceiling: CFP

Washington brings back one of the five best college quarterbacks and all of his receivers after a record setting year. Not to mention they were able to keep Ryan Grubb. The Huskies shocked a lot people a year ago, and now the expectations are for them to continue their high level of play. If Michael Penix Jr. is healthy I would not put it past this team to return to the playoff.

Utah

Ceiling: Pac-12 Championship Appearance

Until Utah can prove that they won't lose a couple games earlier in the season I cannot trust them to be a playoff team. I was certain that last year was their year, and now Cam Rising is coming off major surgery and it is unclear when he will return. They have a couple tough non-conference games against Florida and Baylor, and I just am not confident enough to bet on this team without him. There is also a part of me that finds it hard to believe that they can repeat for a third time as conference champions. It hasn't happened since Oregon did it in 2009-11, and has only happened three times since 1990.

USC

Ceiling: CFP

USC was a second half collapse and a healthy hamstring on Caleb Williams away from making the playoff last season. They return Williams who is the best quarterback in college football who is again surrounded by great weapons, and they also have a new sense of urgency on defense. Alex Grinch is in prove it or get out mode right now, and the Trojans badly need for their defense to blow double digit leads week in and week out. Like all of the teams Lincoln Riley has coach thus far in his tenure, if they have an above average defense they can win it all. His only program is he's yet to do so.