Pac-12 insider explains what San Diego State and SMU bring to the table as expansion candidates
The question surrounding the Pac-12 in coming days, weeks, or even months is whether or not the conference will survive.
The sharks aka the Big 12 and the Big Ten who have been much quieter about their interests have been circling the conference for about a year now, waiting for one program to make the jump. While at one point schools like Stanford, Cal, Oregon and Washington were linked to the Big Ten and Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah were linked to the Big 12 no one has budged. Instead there has been a long standing sense of confidence from the Pac-12 even despite the disastrous PR year.
The issues for the Pac-12 all stem from their media rights deal, well, their inability to secure one. There have been reports of outlets such as ESPN being in and out, and there has been frequent discussions as to who the Pac-12 will add to replace USC and UCLA. As I've said before, there is no replacing the value lost in those two programs but there are in fact programs out there they can help boost the conference up a tad.
While long-time radio personality Dan Patrick recently reported that UNLV and Boise State are long shot programs to get in, the consensus around Pac-12 circles is that all signs point to San Diego State and SMU. The latter two both give the Pac-12 access to major markets, and while they won't bring in as much money as USC and UCLA it can't hurt to have those markets.
Something Pac-12 insider John Canzano dove into when recently asked about the survival of the Pac-12, and whether or not the addition of those two add stability.
Canzano expressed confidence that the conference will survive this round of realignment and media rights negotiations whether or not they expand.
The Pac-12 is going to survive regardless. The remaining 10 members will stick together and sign a media-rights deal. If the Aztecs and Mustangs add value to the media deal, they’ll be invited. If they don’t, they won’t. It’s that simple.
In terms of what San Diego State and SMU bring to the table, as there seems to be confusion as to what the conference is or isn't getting by adding the two they provide large markets. We have learned when it comes to realignment that market size is one of the biggest driving forces for every conference. For example the Big 12 added a Florida, Ohio, and Utah market they didn't have, while the Big Ten now has New York, Washington D.C. and Los Angeles markets in their conference. Canzano explained that the Pac-12 would get access to Southern California again, and also add Dallas.
San Diego State and SMU potentially add valuable inventory to football and men’s basketball. They also combine for 1.16 million (SDSU) and 2.9 million (SMU) television homes respectively. And TV drives expansion.
While San Diego State is in a bit of a limbo thanks to a letter that they think wasn't an exit notice and the Mountain West does think is one, there is still a possibility that they will join the Pac-12. It will just either have to be after they pay the larger fee, or in 2025. SMU on the other hand has an easier path out of the American, as the conference has already publicly stated they are willing to work with programs leaving and even negotiate.
While all of this talk is intriguing, as we all know the media rights deal comes first. Something Sports Business Journal's John Ourand reported the conference will have more clarity next month, with an announcement to be made around Labor Day.
College football fans are anxiously awaiting to see how the landscape will change again, but they will have to just that; wait.
