Where every team in the Pac-12 ranks in ESPN's FPI

The FPI is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance
Where every team in the Pac-12 ranks in ESPN's FPI
Where every team in the Pac-12 ranks in ESPN's FPI

In this story:


With a ton of spring games already happening and college football fans peering ahead  to what should be a fantastic college football season in 2023, ESPN released their first FPI ranking for their 2023 season. 

If you are not familiar with what the FPI is, they explain it as:

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."

During the season it is updated after every game, and in looking at the first edition of this year's FPI, it is evident that it expects the Pac-12 to be extremely strong. Without giving anything away, the conference has five teams ranked within the top-25, and six within the top-60. 

Let's take a look at where every team in the Pac-12 ranks in the FPI, what their chances of winning the conference are, and what their chances to make the playoff or win it all are if applicable.


95. Colorado

Projected Wins: 2.6

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 1.7%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 0%

71. Stanford

Projected Wins: 4.2

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 17.2%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 0%

64. Arizona State

Projected Wins: 4.8

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 30.7%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 0%

62. Washington State

Projected Wins: 5.5

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 49.3%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 0.1%

59. Arizona

Projected Wins: 5.5

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 48.4%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 0.2%

51. Cal

Projected Wins: 5.6

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 53%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 0.2%

41. UCLA

Projected Wins: 7.6

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 93.9%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 1.4%

24. Oregon State

Projected Wins: 8.7

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 98.6%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 7.6%

Percent Chance to make CFP: 0.8%

21. Washinton

Projected Wins: 7.8

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 93.9%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 6.4%

Percent Chance to make CFP: 0.6%

15. Utah

Projected Wins: 8.7

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 98.2%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 17%

Percent Chance to make CFP: 3.9%

13. Oregon

Projected Wins: 7.8

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 99.4%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 16.9%

Percent Chance to make CFP: 4.9%

7. USC

Projected Wins: 10.3

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 99.9%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 50.2%

Percent Chance to make CFP: 24.7%

Loading recommendations... Please wait while we load personalized content recommendations


Published
Kevin Borba
KEVIN BORBA

Managing Editor and Publisher of CardinalCountry.com, formerly a Pac-12 Network Production Assistant and a contributing writer for USA Today's Longhorns Wire. I am a proud graduate of Quinnipiac University's sports journalism master's program. Follow me on Twitter @Kevin__Borba 

Share on XFollow @AllCardinal