Stanford Bubble Watch: Why the Cardinal Deserve to be in March Madness

The calendar has flipped to March, which can only mean one thing—it's time for postseason college basketball. With the regular season over, teams are preparing for their respective conference tournaments, where a tourney win means an automatic bid into the NCAA Division I Women's Basketball tournament, also known as March Madness.

For the Stanford Cardinal, a program that used to be a perennial March Madness staple, a new era has brought some struggles and saw the Cardinal miss the tournament entirely last season for the first time in nearly 40 years.

This season however, the Cardinal have started to look a little bit like the program that we have grown accustomed to, with multiple five-star recruits joining the team ahead of this season and giving the Cardinal notable superstars for the first time since the departure of Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen. But still, it is clear that the Cardinal are still adjusting to their new era under Kate Paye.

Finishing the season 19-13 overall with an 8-10 record in conference play, the Cardinal entered the ACC tournament as heavy underdogs with a very slim chance of making a serious run that would grant them an automatic bid. But based on how the Cardinal looked this season as a whole, could the Cardinal find themselves squeaking into the coveted tournament?

Will Stanford make the tournament?

Despite finishing with the same conference record as last season, the Cardinal improved in a variety of ways, winning three more games overall than last year.

While they had multiple stretches during the season where they endured losing streaks, they also managed to sneak in some quality wins, such as a win over North Carolina on the road on Jan. 4 and a win over then ranked No. 22 Washington in December.

With 19 total wins on the season, the Cardinal have a good argument as to why they should make the tournament, considering some of the teams that made it last season. In the 2025 tournament, Power Four teams such as Indiana, Oregon and Washington all earned a spot in the tournament with only 19 wins, with Washington going 9-9 in conference play, only one game better than the Cardinal this season.

However, Stanford is projected as a team on the "first four out" list in ESPN's bracketology, and are a bubble team heading into selection Sunday. After a loss to Miami in the first round of the ACC tournament, they will need a lot of help to make it in.

One point in their favor could be the tremendous heart the program showed in that ACC loss, going on an 11-0 run to end regulation to force overtime in the first place. That grit and determination coupled with the Cardinal being ranked No. 42 in the NET rankings could be enough to push them over the edge and into March Madness.

But for now, all Stanford can do is wait. With the rest of the conference tournament still going on, the Cardinal have until March 15, the day of the March Madness selection show, to see what their fate will be.

If they sneak into the tournament, the Cardinal could be a dangerous program in those early rounds, and will surely look to prove that they have what it takes to be the Cinderella team this season. If they end up not making the tournament, the WBIT is where they would finish out their season, looking to build up more experience for next season.

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