How close can Syracuse get to a repeat of last season's ten wins?

If you have been following along thus far, you know this Syracuse team under Fran Brown is young and inexperienced. Its starting quarterback has thrown only 80 collegiate passes. Its top two running backs have under 500 rushing yards in college and the receiving corps boasts two players to post 40 catches in a season.

In all, only seven players who appeared in all 13 games for the Orange last season are back, a list that includes three returning starters (DB Duce Chestnut, LB Derek McDonald, OT Da’metrius Weatherspoon) and punter Jack Stonehouse.

If you expand that list to players who saw action in at least nine games while starting at least five contests, the list expands to nine players. DB Devin Grant (ten starts), WR Umari Hatcher (six starts), DB Berry Buxton III (five starts), and DL Denis Jaquez Jr. (five starts) barely make the list. Chase Simmons is the ninth player, having started on the defensive line six times last year, but has moved to tight end for this season. Defensive back Davien Kerr got into eight games, pushing his way into the starting lineup for the last four.

Experience is a premium

Duce Chestnut and Devin Grant at safety count on the defense, Derek McDonald probably is there at linebacker, but still lost his starting spot last season to Justin Barron when Marlowe Wax returned from injury, and there are enough parts on the interior of the line to that the defense should be able to gum up opponents’ inside running game.

On the other side of the ball, Da’Metrius Weatherspoon played well for the Orange last year, T.J. Ferguson did the same at Florida State, and Austin Collins earned some stripes at Louisville. Darrell Gill Jr., Umari Hatcher, and Justus Ross-Simmons were enough of occasional contributors at wide receiver, they should produce this season.

Jack Stonehouse will be a good punter.

And that’s it for what you know you can count on. Everything else is qualified with phrases like “gain experience”, “developing over the season”, and “unit must gel in a short amount of time”.

Unlike last season, there is no offensive skill player that demands the opponent’s attention on the scouting report. The defense does not have a pass rusher that demands a double team, potentially leaving its inexperienced cornerbacks exposed on the outside.

Even if last year’s team came back intact, it would have also been likely to go through some statistical regression. The Orange were 7-2 in one-score games last season, which is a result that tends to even out over time.

The roster turnover is significant

Of course, as has already been noted, last year’s team is not back intact.

Also likely to create some negative results are the names on the Syracuse schedule. SU opens against #24 Tennessee in Atlanta for a neutral-site game, but also travels to all three ACC teams appearing in the preseason AP poll (#4 Clemson, #10 Miami, #16 SMU) and #6 Notre Dame. That is five games with ranked opponents, all away from the JMA Wireless Dome.

Simply put, it is a much tougher slate than the one the Orange faced last year. Pretty much everything is going to have to go right for this young, inexperienced team to make it three straight bowl appearances.

That young, inexperienced team is going to need young players to show dramatic improvement. Transfers will have to hit the ground running and the offensive linemen will have to develop chemistry very quickly. Angeli, who committed to the Orange four months ago and was sharing starting reps until a week-and-a-half ago, has to have timing dead to rights with his receivers. The defensive line will need multiple players to become major contributors, particularly as pass rushers. Inexperienced cornerbacks must improve quickly.

All against that tough schedule.

Added together, a bowl berth simply does not seem to be a likely outcome for this year’s Syracuse team. Pencil in the Orange for a 5-7 record with the key factor being how the young players improve as the campaign wears on.

SUPPORT THE JUICE ONLINE

Visit our free Syracuse Orange discussion forum.