Why Syracuse Football can exceed expectations this season

As the dog days of summer roll along, we are creeping towards the final month without Syracuse football until at least December. The Orange opens its 2026 campaign at home against New Hampshire on Sept. 5. Entering the third year of the Fran Brown era, opinions of his squad are fairly low. SU is coming off a dismal 3-9 season, which ended with an eight-game losing streak.

However, there is some silver lining in Central New York. Steve Angeli was off to a blistering start in 2025 before tearing his Achilles in a road win at Clemson. The Orange was 3-1 with the former Notre Dame quarterback at the helm. The Orange is also only a year removed from a 10-3 season that finished with a stunning upset of Cam Ward and Miami at the Dome and a win over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl.

Still, in the era of the transfer portal, things can change very quickly. This Syracuse roster has been heavily reshaped over the offseason.

Should expectations really be this low?

While the 2024 season feels like a long time ago right now, Brown does have a winning record as Syracuse’s head coach. When he has his preferred starting quarterback, the Orange is 12-4 under the former Georgia assistant.

However, expectations for this SU team seem to be heavily reflecting what we saw in 2025. The Orange enter the season with a win total of just 4.5 at most sportsbooks. ESPN’s Bill Connelly projects Syracuse to finish with 4.5 wins as well in his SP+ model. He gives the team just a 24.7 percent chance to win six or more games in 2026. CBS Sports isn't even that optimistic about this team's chances, predicting them to finish 3-9.

On the bright side, Angeli is not shying away from the motivation it provides to be doubted like this. On the most recent episode of our Juice on the Cuse podcast, Angeli opened up about the lack of preseason hype. "I think it's great. A little fuel to the fire."

Angeli should have this squad come out of the gates strong. 'Cuse eases into the season with a home game against FCS standout New Hampshire. The Wildcats made the FCS playoffs last season, but were demolished by South Dakota State 41-3. Two of Syracuse's next three opponents are Cal (home) and UConn (away). Both teams have new head coaches and a ton of roster turnover to contend with. Sandwiched in between is a trip to Pitt. Let's call that one a loss and expect the Orange to once again start 3-1.

Syracuse faces a difficult schedule

Things get much trickier from there. A trip to Charlottesville against a Virginia team that went 11-1 and went to the ACC title game is up next. Even without Chandler Morris, the Cavaliers will likely win that one. 'Cuse finally returns home for a matchup with Louisville in mid-October. The Cardinals have won at least nine games in each of Jeff Brohm's three seasons at the helm. Chalk that up as a loss as well.

The Orange play in Chapel Hill, and odds are the Tar Heels will be better in Bill Belichick's second season. That being said, this feels like a winnable game. Returning to face SMU will almost certainly be a loss. That would put the Orange at 4-4 heading into November.

A home date with Clemson kicks off the final month. The Orange stunned the Tigers in Death Valley last year. Dabo Swinney has uncertainty at quarterback this season. Clemson's defense is legit once again. Call this one a true toss-up. Facing NC State in Raleigh is a tough task. CJ Bailey is a legit breakout candidate this season. While 'Cuse lost against BC last year, a win in Chestnut Hill feels very attainable. Closing the season against Notre Dame will almost undoubtedly be a loss. Hopefully, it will be closer than 35-0 at the end of the first quarter this time.

For those who excel at math, that would get Syracuse to 6-6 on the year. In truth, this level of doubt feels a little too reactionary to a team playing without its starting quarterback and starting a number of freshmen on defense. Expecting another 10-win campaign is equally unrealistic, but this ‘Cuse roster has a reasonable shot at a bowl game. The schedule is easy early and gets much harder as the season goes on. Reaching six wins is far from a given, but projections in the ACC basement feel a bit harsh.

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