Why Texas A&M Will Upset Houston in the NCAA Tournament

The Texas A&M Aggies are punching up against Houston in the Round of 32. Can they avenge their postseason loss two years ago?

Texas A&M Aggies guard Jacari Lane takes a shot while Saint Mary's Gaels center Andrew McKeever defends during a first-round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

No. 2-seeded Houston will be one of the toughest opponents No. 10 Texas A&M will face all season. Following a 78–47 beatdown of the No. 15 Idaho Vandals, the Cougars advance to the Round of 64 to face a surging Aggies roster fresh off a convincing 63–50 upset over the No. 7 Saint Mary’s Gaels.

The last time Texas A&M played a team of this quality was an ugly loss to Florida on Feb. 7, but there are a few similarities between these teams. What can Texas A&M learn from that loss, and what is its path to victory over Houston?

How No. 10 Texas A&M Could Upset No. 2 Houston

Texas A&M Aggies guard Josh Holloway dribbles the ball during a first-round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Texas A&M found itself in a similar position two seasons ago. After a win in the first round as the ninth seed over the Nebraska Cornhuskers, the Aggies faced a Cougars team that was the top seed in the South Region. The game went to two overtimes, and the Aggies fell short 100–95.

However, this is a new Texas A&M team. Head coach Bucky McMillan has never coached against Houston, and nobody remains from that 2024 roster. With a clean slate, the Aggies have to prepare for Kelvin Sampson’s squad from scratch.

Houston wins on the defensive end; that is the staple of Sampson’s system. As it did two seasons ago, Houston leads the country in team defensive efficiency rating, according to EvanMiya. The Cougars allow the second-fewest points per game (62.9) and rank 16th in opponent field goal percentage (40.0%).

It is a system built on accountability and discipline, which is why Sampson has made a run to the Sweet 16 in each of the last six NCAA Tournaments.

Texas A&M Aggies guard Rylan Griffen drives against Florida Gators center Rueben Chinyelu during the second half at Reed Arena. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

The Aggies will need to recall their contest against the Gators: another roster that is among the best defensive teams in the country, with threatening size and an offensive punch at the guard position. Texas A&M lost 86–67 and shot 30.6% from the field.

One of the Aggies’ pitfalls was that they failed to find efficient shots inside, instead settling for three-pointers. Texas A&M shot a season-low 34.2% inside the arc. McMillan will be tasked with finding a way to create open shots down low.

That starts with star forward Rashaun Agee. He was the Aggies’ star against Saint Mary’s, and when he is hot, the Aggies are hot. Texas A&M is 16–3 when Agee scores 14 or more points.

The Aggies have been among the lowest-volume teams in shots inside the arc — 216th in two-pointers attempted per game with 34.5. Agee and guard Marcus Hill will be their main forms of offensive creation.

Houston Cougars forward Joseph Tugler drives around Kansas Jayhawks forward Flory Bidunga during the first half at T-Mobile Center. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

While Florida and Houston win in similar ways, their roster construction differs. Houston has a more dangerous backcourt, while Florida has the more dominant defensive frontcourt.

Forward Joseph Tugler is the Cougars’ defensive anchor and one of the best defenders in the country. Like Florida’s Rueben Chinyelu, he should be circled on the Aggies’ offensive game plan as a player to take caution around. Center Chris Cenec Jr. also led the Big 12 in defensive rating.

Meanwhile, guard Kingston Flemings is a more dangerous offensive threat than anyone on Florida's roster. The All-American freshman averages 16.4 points and 5.3 assists per game. Guard Emanuel Sharp also averages 15.3 points and is a dangerous shooter with tournament experience.

Houston Cougars center Cedric Lath and guard Kingston Flemings high-five during a first-round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The tournament experience from top to bottom will be one of Houston’s biggest advantages. The Aggies are competing in their fourth consecutive March Madness, the second-longest streak in program history. However, they have just one returning player.

Houston, meanwhile, returns 44.2% of its minutes played and 42.3% of its scoring, according to Sports Reference. Sampson is one of the most respected coaches of his generation, and his teams know how to win.

One area where that discipline is apparent is turnovers. Houston ranks ninth in total turnovers and tops the nation in turnovers per game (8.5). This could be trouble for the Aggies. McMillan’s team presses all game, and disciplined, skilled guard play can limit how effective the press can be.

Texas A&M is just 3–7 when forcing fewer than 10 turnovers, so creating havoc for Houston is paramount to its success.

Texas A&M Aggies guard Marcus Hill dribbles the ball around during a first-round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

There is a reason Houston entered the NCAA Tournament as one of the favorites. It is a well-rounded roster with experience, an elite coach and two-way dominance. Texas A&M will be tasked with a lot to pull off the upset.

The Aggies have not yet pulled off a dominant win over a top team, but they can learn from their mistakes. Generating an efficient offense will be the top priority, using pressure inside to create shots outside — not the other way around.

Meanwhile, the Aggies will need to find a way to create havoc on defense despite Houston typically avoiding sloppy offensive play. Texas A&M will have to maintain its style and play smart instead of chasing Houston to pull off the upset in the Round of 32.

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