A Round-by-Round Look at Texas A&M’s Path to the National Championship

A round-by-round look at Texas A&M’s path to the national championship.

Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko prior to the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

After weeks of debate and arguments across the college football world, the playoff bracket is finally set.

No. 7 Texas A&M will host No. 10 Miami at Kyle Field for an 11 a.m. kickoff on Saturday, with the winner earning a trip to AT&T Stadium for a Cotton Bowl quarterfinal against No. 2 Ohio State.

It’s a tough break for a one-loss A&M team to face a possible showdown with the defending national champs so soon, but if the Aggies plan on winning it all, eventually you have to beat the best.

Here’s what Mike Elko’s program must navigate to reach the National Championship Game at Hard Rock Stadium.

Round One: No. 10 Miami @ No. 7 Texas A&M – Sat, Dec 20 | 11 a.m.

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (center) enters the field to warm up before the game against NC State Wolfpack at Hard Rock Stadium. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

For most of the week, all signs pointed toward an A&M–Notre Dame rematch. But in a late decision, the committee replaced the Irish with the Miami Hurricanes.

The Aggies might have caught a break. A&M opens as a 4.5-point favorite, and the matchup on paper is far more manageable than facing Notre Dame’s elite run game.

Despite the early kickoff, Kyle Field should be rocking. The Aggies have been waiting a long time for a playoff moment, and they finally get one in front of their home crowd.

Quarterfinal: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State | Cotton Bowl | Wed, Dec. 31 | 6:30 p.m.

Ohio State Buckeyes mascot Brutus reacts to a missed field goal by place kicker Jayden Fielding during the third quarter of the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic against the Missouri Tigers. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

The reward for A&M’s best season in over three decades? A potential second-round showdown with the defending national champions.

On the bright side, the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium is the closest thing A&M could have to a home game away from home.

Another positive? Last season, last year every single first-round bye team lost in the quarterfinals:

• No. 4 Arizona State fell to Texas 
• No. 3 Boise State fell to Penn State
• No. 2 Georgia fell to Notre Dame 
• No. 1 Oregon fell to Ohio State

First-round bye teams sit for nearly a month before taking the field again, usually making them rusty by the time the quarterfinal rolls around.

Catching Ohio State after a long break could be a blessing in disguise for A&M, especially against what might be the most talented roster in the entire playoff.

Follow last year’s trend, and A&M ends up one win away from the natty.

Semifinal: Vrbo Fiesta Bowl | Thu, Jan. 8 | 6:30 p.m. 

Fans gather outside of State Farm Stadium before the Penn State Nittany Lions play the Boise State Broncos at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in Glendale on Dec. 31, 2024. | Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Realistically, A&M’s semifinal opponent would come down to one of two teams, Georgia or Ole Miss, unless a Cinderella run blows up the bracket.

And both teams provide quite different challenges. 

Georgia, for one, knows exactly what it takes to win the whole thing. Kirby Smart has built a machine powered by grit and discipline. You don’t have to look any further than quarterback Gunnar Stockton to understand the Dawgs’ identity.

Ole Miss, meanwhile, enters the postseason in a unique spot. With Lane Kiffin off to LSU, former defensive coordinator Pete Golding is now steering the ship. But one thing hasn’t changed: the Rebels can score on anyone.

National Championship: Hard Rock Stadium | Mon, Jan. 19 | 6:30 p.m.

A view of the college football playoff national championship trophy on the sidelines of a game between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Pittsburgh Panthers in the fourth quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

According to FanDuel’s latest odds, these are the teams on the opposite side of the bracket with the best chance to win the national championship:

1. Indiana (+260 odds)
2. Oregon (+850 odds)
3. Texas Tech (+850 odds)
4. Alabama (+2200 odds)
5. Oklahoma (+5000 odds)

Indiana is the clear favorite to emerge from that half of the bracket, while Oregon and Texas Tech sit in the next tier as the most realistic challengers. Alabama and Oklahoma may be longer shots, but both programs boast elite defenses and the kind of physicality that plays well deep into December.