How Championship Weekend Could Shape Texas A&M’s First Round Game

Texas A&M won’t play on Championship Saturday, but the results will define their first round matchup and playoff path.

Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko reacts during the second quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

With the regular season in the books, all eyes shift to Conference Championship weekend.

No. 24 Tulane vs. No. 20 North Texas. No. 11 BYU vs. No. 4 Texas Tech. No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 9 Alabama. Duke vs. No. 17 Virginia. No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State.

Texas A&M seems glued to the No. 7 seed at the moment. It’s unlikely they climb any higher, and just as unlikely they fall. Nothing is ever guaranteed with the committee, though. 

That leaves one major question: who grabs the No. 10 seed and a first-round trip to Kyle Field?

Here are the biggest games to watch this weekend and how each could impact A&M’s playoff seeding.

Duke vs. No. 17 Virginia -- 7 PM on ABC

Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz looks on against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the fourth quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

If Duke wins...

The ACC doomsday scenario of not having a team in the playoff comes true.

The Blue Devils are unranked and sitting on five losses, and even with a conference title, they’re almost guaranteed to remain outside the Top 25.

The playoff rulebook guarantees the five highest-ranked conference champions an automatic spot in the 12-team field.

In that case, the field would pull in two Group of 5 champions instead, most likely James Madison and the Tulane/North Texas winner.

If Virginia wins...

The Cavaliers would likely land the No. 11 seed. Unless Texas A&M somehow climbs to No. 6, the Aggies shouldn’t worry much about facing Virginia.

That is, unless Alabama loses to Georgia and the committee decides to drop a three-loss Tide team to No. 11, then a No. 10 Virginia vs. No. 7 Texas A&M first-round matchup suddenly becomes realistic.

No. 11 BYU vs No. 4 Texas Tech -- 11 AM on ABC

Texas Tech's Ben Roberts attempts to make a tackle against BYU during a Big 12 Conference football game, Saturday, Nov. 8, at Jones AT&T Stadium. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Texas Tech opens as a 12.5-point favorite and already beat BYU 29–7 earlier this season.

If Texas Tech wins...

The committee would almost certainly drop BYU out of the playoff field.

A Tech win would effectively lock in playoff spots for Notre Dame and Alabama, with the Irish likely holding steady at No. 10. That would set up a round-one matchup between No. 10 Notre Dame and No. 7 Texas A&M.

If BYU wins...

A Cougar win would almost definitely vault BYU ahead of Texas A&M. The question becomes whether the committee would choose to drop a two-loss Tech below the Aggies. It’s impossible to predict with this committee, but it’s absolutely in play.

• If Tech drops below A&M: the Aggies climb from No. 7 to No. 6 and draw a more favorable first-round opponent. 
• If Tech stays ahead of A&M: the Aggies fall to No. 8.

And that’s before factoring in Alabama–Georgia. It’s slim, but if Alabama wins and Tech loses, there’s a scenario where A&M falls all the way to No. 9 likely setting up a round one game with Oklahoma. Unlikely, but with this committee, nothing feels off the table.

No. 3 Georgia vs No. 9 Alabama -- 3 PM on ABC

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart talks to Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Joenel Aguero (8) during a time out in the the first quarter against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. | John Reed-Imagn Images

This game absolutely has the most implications on A&M’s first round playoffs. The committee will have their hands full with the outcome of this one, especially if Alabama wins.

If Alabama wins...

The Tide already beat Georgia 27–24 earlier this season and hold a 7–1 record against Kirby Smart. 

If Alabama wins again, the committee will almost certainly vault the Tide ahead of A&M. How far they jump isn’t all that relevant to the Aggies, what matters is what happens to Georgia. 

The Bulldogs would drop, but not enough to fall below A&M. It is hard to envision the committee punishing a two-loss SEC title game runner up too harshly for losing the championship game. That likely pushes A&M down to the No. 8 seed.

If Georgia wins...

A&M doesn’t have to worry about being jumped in the rankings, and Alabama becomes the wild card. The Tide could easily slide into the No. 10 seed, setting up a first-round matchup with the Aggies. Or, if the committee is feeling bold, Alabama could be left out of the playoff entirely.

So, What's the Verdict?

Texas A&M tight end Nate Boerkircher (87) celebrates after scoring a touchdown to tie the game in the second half of a NCAA football game against Notre Dame at Notre Dame Stadium. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If we follow the Vegas odds, Virginia, Texas Tech, and Georgia all taking care of business, the most likely round-one scenario for Texas A&M looks something like this:

• No. 10 Notre Dame/Alabama vs No. 7 Texas A&M

There are plenty of chaotic combinations on the table, but these are the matchups the Aggies are most likely staring at:

1. No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 A&M
2. No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 7 A&M
3. No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 8 A&M
4. No. 11 Virginia vs. No. 6 A&M