College Baseball Regional Tournament Preview: Any Dark Horses To Watch?

The Field of 64 is set and College Baseball regional tournaments are about to kick off. Which of the 16 hosts are in trouble? Are there any dark horses to keep an eye on? We'll explore below.

College Baseball Regional Hosts: Take The Chalk

Knoxville Regional: Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee is playing on a different level than any other team in the nation. They're a generous favorite to win the College World Series and rightfully so. The Volts lead almost every category in both hitting and pitching and have almost comically shredded their schedule. Any team that pulled the Knoxville designation was dead on arrival.

Blacksburg Regional: Virginia Tech Hokies

Gonzaga was a frisky team to start the year, frequenting the top 25. However, Virginia Tech is on fire and one of the fastest-rising teams at both sportsbooks and in the national media. They're one of five regional hosts with greater than a 50% chance to win their bracket.

Austin Regional: Texas Longhorns

Postseason play comes down to who's hot and who's not. The Texas Longhorns– after a slight midseason lull– are scorching. Ivan Melendez set a school record and paces the nation with 29 homers. In a region with teams who are susceptible to giving up runs by the bucket (Dallas Baptist), don't get too galaxy brained here.

College Baseball Regional Hosts: On The Hot Seat

College Park Regional: Maryland Terrapins

D1 Baseball's RPI likes Maryland a good deal (9th), but projections don't. CFB Graphs on Twitter (@statsowar) ran simulations of the College Park Regional, which produced just a 39% expected win rate for Maryland. That's tied for two-seed Wake Forest for the highest and three-seed UConn comes in with 22%. The Terps are one of just three hosts in those simulations to not win their bracket.

COLLEGE PARK REGIONAL

Projected Winner: Maryland/Wake Forest (39%) pic.twitter.com/n3Lnd9lJd5
— parker fleming (@statsowar) June 1, 2022

Hattiesburg Regional: Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Southern Miss fans will call it disrespect, but the fact of the matter is that USM is ranked the lowest in RPI among the hosts. They pulled LSU– top 25 in RPI– a team that will travel extremely well 2.5 hours away to Hattiesburg. Should the Tigers slip, Southern Miss is in good standing against Kennesaw State and Army, a pair of automatic qualifiers that lack baseball prestige this year.

Gainesville Regional: Florida Gators

As a wise man once said about the 2022 Gainesville Regional, "who the hell knows?" They're the only regional where all four teams have an implied 10% chance to win or greater, including bottom-seeded Central Michigan. It'll be a great bracket from a purely entertainment perspective, but trying to accurately pick an outcome here might be near impossible.

Statesboro Regional: Georgia Southern Eagles

Naturally, the lowest-seeded regional host pulls the most difficult field. This isn't an indictment on Georgia Southern, in fact D1 Baseball ranks them 11th in RPI, but having to stave off Notre Dame and Texas Tech is quite the task. Tech is the strongest three seed in the tournament and Notre Dame has a pitching staff equipped for the postseason.

Underdogs To Watch

Liberty Flames, Gainesville Regional

When you have no clue how a regional is going to shape out, may as well take a stab. In this case, it's an educated one with Liberty. The Flames are sound through and through, with their primary strength coming on defense. Liberty is 31st in RPI– one of the top three seeds in the metric– while regional host Florida has been wildly inconsistent this year.

Texas State Bobcats, Stanford Regional

Upending Stanford would be a tall task, but Texas State is the program up for the job. they hold their water defensively and even lead the region in wOBA (weighted on-base average), on-base percentage, and walks drawn. They're 26th in RPI and, if they catch the right flame, could march their way to the Super Regionals.

Ole Miss Rebels, Coral Gables Regional

Citing back to CFB Graphs' regional models, Ole Miss has the highest win outcome of any three seed in the tournament. Sportsbooks also respect the Rebels, favoring them over two-seed Arizona and making them the three seed with the shortest odds to win their regional.

CORAL GABLES REGIONAL
Projected Winner: Miami (51%) pic.twitter.com/PVqrY25vhZ
— parker fleming (@statsowar) June 1, 2022

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