Men's Basketball: TCU Hosts Baylor With Bubble Hopes on the Line

Tuesday's midweek clash against Baylor is the biggest of TCU's season so far, and it is not close. The Horned Frogs seemed dead in the water a little over a month ago, and now they are sitting right outside of the bubble with a chance to sneak their way into the NCAA Tournament.

TCU has won four of its last six games and has only lost three times since losing to Texas Tech on Jan. 29. At that point in the season, Jamie Dixon's squad was 10-10 with a 3-6 Big 12 record and was trying to adjust to life without Frankie Collins. The elevated play of young contributors like Jace Posey, David Punch and Malick Diallo paired with an effective backcourt duo in Noah Reynolds and Vasean Allette, TCU rattled off six wins in nine games, including a signature win over the Red Raiders at home. Now, the team sits with a 16-13 overall record and a 9-9 Big 12 record.

Most projections list TCU in the conversation for a tournament big, but a historically weak bubble allows the Horned Frogs a chance. And that chance continues on Tuesday night with a rivarly meeting with Baylor.

TCU bested the Bears on their own court on Jan. 19 led by a 16-point, 15-rebound outburst from Ernest Udeh Jr. and 13 points from both Reynolds and Allette. It was Brendan Wenzel, though, who led the group in scoring, pouring in 17 points off the bench. If a repeated result is in the cards for the Horned Frogs, they'll need to score. The Horned Frogs are coming off an 89-point explosion against UCF, a game in which the offense looked as good as it has all season.

The Bears have lost three of their last four games and suddenly find themselves on the bubble as well. Baylor is in much better position to make the tournament than TCU is, but a loss to the Frogs would be borderline catastrophic. Baylor has one of the best offenses in the sport, ranking 15th in offensive efficiency per KenPom.com. The Bears feature a lineup that includes star power in Norchad Omier, VJ Edgecombe and Jeremy Roach, but outside of those three, there isn't too much. Veteran guard Langston Love missed most of Big 12 play with an injury, but since he has returned, he has been an effective scorer for Baylor.

Defensively, however, Scott Drew's team has not been as great. Against Colorado on Feb. 22, the Bears' defense gave up 76 points to a Colorado offense that ranks 169th in offensive efficiency. 76 points is the highest the Buffaloes have scored this season in Big 12 play. Colorado shot nearly 50% from the floor and finished the game with a three-point clip of just over 40%. Four of the Buffs' five starters scored in double digits.

Overall, TCU's offense has struggled this season, but it seems to be hitting a stride down the stretch. The Horned Frogs should be able to exploit Baylor's defensive weakness and Colorado gave them a blueprint on how to do it. Dixon's defense has been his team's strength, ranking 31st in defensive efficiency. If it can slow Baylor's high-octane offense and TCU's scorers can score, the Horned Frogs will have a chance.

Baylor, my all metrics, is the better team, but with its season on the line, TCU should be fired up to play. A loss almost certainly puts an end to March Madness hopes. A win keeps them alive.

How to Watch, Listen and Stream: TCU vs. Arizona State

Tipoff - 8 pm CT, Tuesday, March 4

Television - ESPN+

Play-By-Play: Mark Neely
Analyst: King McClure

Radio - : Talk Radio 1190 AM KFXR

Play-By-Play: Brian Estridge
Analyst: Neil P Dougherty
Online: Varsity App, GoFrogs.com
SiriusXM: 388

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How to Watch, Listen and Stream: TCU vs. Arizona State

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