Big 12 Championship Odds: Texas Vs. Oklahoma State Picks, Predictions
The Texas Longhorns (11-1) are 15.5-point favorites over the Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) in the 2023 Big 12 Championship Game. It's Texas' last foray as a member of the Big 12 before it and Oklahoma depart for the SEC in 2024. Not only are the Longhorns big favorites, but the betting market has only favored Texas this week. The over/under sits at 54.5 points at time of writing.
What does the market movement mean? Can Oklahoma State not just cover the spread, but win outright? Let's dive into the matchup to find out.
The Big 12 Championship Game kicks off Saturday at 11:00 a.m. CT at AT&T Stadium.
How Did The Teams Get Here?
Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Ollie Gordon II (0) celebrates with fans after a Bedlam college football game between the Oklahoma State University Cowboys (OSU) and the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023. Oklahoma State won 27-24.
Despite a 2-2 start to the season that included a shocking 33-7 blowout to 6-6 South Alabama at home, Oklahoma State secured a seat at the Big 12 Championship. It's the second appearance for the Pokes in three seasons, last losing to Baylor 21-16 (2021). Oklahoma State upset rival Oklahoma in the final foreseeable installment of Bedlam, defeated Kansas State at home, and upended top-25 Kansas.
A 7-1 run to end the season was only interrupted by a blowout loss at UCF. That pushed Oklahoma State to a 9-3 finish to the regular season. In the last 15 years, Mike Gundy has twice the number of 9+ win seasons (10) than he does 4+ loss seasons (9) – a beacon of consistency in a wildly inconsistent conference.
However, for the Pokes to clinch their championship game berth, they had to overcome a multi-score deficit to BYU, eventually winning in two overtimes.
Texas, on the other hand, had a more convincing route to Arlington. The Longhorns capped their season with a 50-point blowout of Texas Tech. Steve Sarkisian also led his squad to a win on the road at Alabama, potentially the best win any team has on the season. Finally, after years of ridicule, Texas might finally be "back."
The Longhorns are a last-minute touchdown drive by rival Oklahoma away from an unbeaten season. They did have a run in which they tussled with Houston for longer than necessary (under backup QB Maalik Murphy) and nearly blew a three-score lead to Kansas State at home. But Texas won its clunkers and finished 11-1, their best mark since the 2009 National Championship team (that also last won the Big 12).
Texas vs. Oklahoma State Pick Against The Spread
Nov 24, 2023; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns defensive lineman T'Vondre Sweat (93) reacts after making a tackle during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
When assessing conference championship week, recent form is paramount. Texas opened as a -11.5 favorite, a number that shot up thanks to the betting market. Clearly, influential bettors saw -11.5 as a mistake.
Moving through -14 is a notable one. In the last five seasons, 14 is the third-most frequent point differential, representing 9% of all games. That 9% is referred to as the "push rate" and indicates a 9% swing in implied win probability. A -700 moneyline indicates a 87.5% expected win probability, as well.
At this juncture, the spread has been bet up too far to see much value in Texas; moving through 12, 13, 14, and 15 points represents a 20% shift in implied win rate. At this number, it's foolish to play Texas blindly. This is a no play on the spread.
Can Oklahoma State Cover?
Nov 11, 2023; Orlando, Florida, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Alan Bowman (7) hands off to running back Ollie Gordon II (0) during the first quarter against the UCF Knights at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports
The Pokes' offense succeeds as much as star back Ollie Gordon does. The Doak Walker Award finalist leads the nation in rushing yards (1,580) and closed the year with 330 yards in his last two games. Aside from one game in which he received 50% of his usual workload due to injury (at UCF), Gordon rushed for at least 120 yards in his final eight games.
However, he goes against the stiffest rush defense Oklahoma State's seen this year. Texas' front seven held opponents to just 2.9 yards per rush attempt during the regular season, the fifth-lowest number nationally. The line is anchored by Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year T'Vondre Sweat.
OKST's offensive front needs to play their best game of the season and generate yards for Gordon this Saturday.
Texas' worst unit on the defense is their secondary. According to Pro Football Focus, Texas is 65th in coverage this season, a deficiency exposed by Dillon Gabriel and Oklahoma (285 passing yards). Alan Bowman has been perfectly serviceable this season, but finished his final four games with just two touchdown passes and six interceptions; Bowman failed to throw a touchdown pass in seven of his 13 games this year.
While the answer of "can" is always "yes," Oklahoma State faces a severe uphill battle to keep this game close. They need to play their best all-around football game to be competitive.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State Over/Under Pick
Texas Longhorns offensive lineman Kelvin Banks Jr. (78) lifts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (5) to celebrate a touchdown against Texas Christian University at Amon G. Carter Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023 in Fort Worth, Texas.
55 points represents a key total in college football betting. With 54.5 available at many shops (be sure to shop lines!), this game is a play to Over 54.5 points.
Texas rosters among the most weapons in college football, even without lead back Jonathan Brooks (out for the year). Oklahoma State fields a very average defense, ranking 70th in efficiency. However, they're extremely prone to giving up explosive plays – they've allowed 71 plays of 20+ yards this season, seventh-most in the country. Texas is just outside the top-25 in 20+ yard plays generated.
Over the last three games – many of which OKST was either trailing or playing in a tight game – the Pokes ran the 20th-fastest pace in the country. On the season, Oklahoma State ran the seventh-most plays per game.
Tempo and the potential for explosive plays makes this both an exciting bet and a sound one.
Brett Gibbons is a college football betting writer for TheLines.com.
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