Big 12 Championship Prediction: No. 15 Arizona State vs No. 16 Iowa State

Who will take home the Big 12 title and receive a spot in the College Football Playoff? Iowa State and Arizona State will battle with everything on the line.

Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo (4) celebrates with his teammates after their 35-31 win against the Kansas Jayhawks at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe on Oct. 5, 2024. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The inaugural season of the expanded Big 12 comes to a thrilling conclusion on Saturday when No. 12 Arizona State faces No. 16 Iowa State at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Both teams have made remarkable strides this season, with the stakes as high as ever: a conference championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff.

A Historic Matchup

This is the first meeting between the two programs, each chasing history. Arizona State, led by head coach Kenny Dillingham, seeks its first outright conference championship in school history and a landmark 11-win season. Their remarkable turnaround from a 3-9 campaign last year is one of the best turnarounds in recent memory.

Iowa State also aims for its first Big 12 title after falling short in its 2020 appearance. The Cyclones’ 10 wins are a program-best, showcasing their transformation into a consistent contender under head coach Matt Campbell.

Arizona State’s offense revolves around running back Cam Skattebo, whose 1,397 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns have been instrumental to the Sun Devils' success. Skattebo’s versatility—he’s the only 1,000-yard rusher in FBS with over 400 receiving yards—makes him a matchup nightmare. He’s just 40 yards shy of setting Arizona State’s single-season record for scrimmage yards.

Iowa State’s defense, while solid overall, has struggled to contain opposing ground games. Their ability to limit Skattebo will be crucial to slowing Arizona State’s balanced attack.

On the other side, Iowa State’s offense boasts one of the most dynamic receiving duos in the nation. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel have both eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards, a feat unmatched by any other pair in the FBS this season. Quarterback Rocco Becht has been a steady leader, guiding Iowa State to success it has never seen.

Iowa State’s ability to protect Becht against Arizona State’s pass rush will be a deciding factor. The Sun Devils’ defense thrives on creating turnovers and forcing mistakes, which could tilt the game in their favor.

Prediction

Arizona State enters as a slight favorite (-2.5), but this game feels like a toss-up. The Sun Devils’ resurgence has been one of the year’s best stories, and Skattebo’s consistency gives them a dependable offensive foundation. However, Iowa State’s combination of a potent passing game and experience in high-stakes matchups could prove decisive.

Ultimately, Arizona State looks like a team that is destined to win this conference and go to the playoffs. Dillingham will complete this incredible turnaround with a conference title

Prediction: Arizona State 31, Iowa State 27

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