College Football Conference Championship Rundown, Picks
After a college football season filled with upsets and surprises, Conference Championship Weekend is upon us. Teams like Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, and Cincinnati will see their College Football Playoff hopes fulfilled or dashed by Sunday while Michigan and Georgia are looking to make statements.
Below, we'll look at the four remaining Power Five championship games as well as the American Athletic Conference (AAC) Championship. You can find our breakdown of the Big 12 Championship game here.
All times listed are CST.
Pac-12 Championship: #17 Utah (9-3) vs. #10 Oregon (10-2)
Friday, December 3, 7:00 p.m., Las Vegas, NV
We just saw this matchup pan out two weeks ago where Utah took it to Oregon at home. The Utes won by 31 points, dominated time of possession, and blew the game open early. Oregon was plagued by missed tackles and penalties. Travis Dye was schemed out of the game to the tune of six carries.
This game is away from Rice-Eccles Stadium, and Oregon's had a chance to self-evaluate. However, it'd be a remarkable turnaround to erase a 31-point gap in 13 days. No question about it– this game will be closer than the previous installment.
The Ducks return several starters who missed Week 12 with injury, and the defense should come ready to play. That said, it still seems foolhardy to pick Oregon to win outright.
The pick: Utah 31-24
SEC Championship: #1 Georgia (12-0) vs. #3 Alabama (11-1)
Saturday, December 4, 3:00 p.m., Atlanta, GA
Georgia is fielding a historic defense this season. Their 0.36 points per drive surrendered outside of garbage time this season is the least ever since the metric was recorded in 2007. Stetson Bennett has led the offense valiantly, leading to the Dawgs outscoring their opponents by over a field goal per drive– the first team since 2013 Florida State to achieve that level of dominance.
Alabama will be without star receiver Jameson Williams for the first half of the game after he was ejected in the first half of the Iron Bowl last week. The Tide also have serious concerns at offensive line, a unit that played cohesively and dominantly last season. The breakdown up front has led to Bryce Young scrambling frequently.
Alabama's offensive woes the past few weeks are certainly cause for hesitation here. Expect Georgia to limit them offensively. However, don't overlook the incredible play of Will Anderson, who leads the nation with an astonishing 30.5 tackles for loss.
The pick: Georgia 24-7
AAC Championship: #21 Houston (11-1) at #4 Cincinnati (12-0)
Saturday, December 4, 3:00 p.m.
Houston has won 11 straight games since blowing a 21-7 lead in Week 1 to Texas Tech. They've been sound against the run, but struggled to get the run game going on their own. Against Cincinnati, that's a problem. The other red flag for Houston is their strength of schedule, ranked 129th by ESPN's FPI this year.
Despite a string of close games in the middle of the season, Cincinnati is third in the nation in point margin (+22.8) and net points per drive (1.85). Desmond Ridder and the Bearcats passing attack will get plenty of work in a game Luke Fickell & Co. know they need to win fashionably.
With so much riding on this game for Cincinnati, including the possibility of being jumped despite a victory, the Bearcats are going to put the hammer down on this game. ESPN's Bill Connelly's SP+ slates Cincy as a 12.8-point favorite, but the point margin could very well be much more than that.
The pick: Cincinnati 38-13
Big Ten Championship Game: #13 Iowa (10-2) vs. #2 Michigan (11-1)
Saturday, December 4, 7:00 p.m., Indianapolis, IN
Michigan presents the biggest matchup nightmare of any game this weekend. Iowa's predicated their 10 wins this season on forcing turnovers and short fields. Michigan is eighth nationally, turning the ball over fewer than one time per game. The Wolverines are also excellent converting on third downs while also limiting their opponents. Iowa is a notoriously bad third down offense, ranking 104th in conversation rate.
Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras has struggled immensely when pressured this season. Michigan counters Iowa's rocky tackle unit with the top pair of pass rushers in the conference– David Ojabo and Heisman candidate Aiden Hutchinson.
In their two losses this year, the Hawkeyes forced just one total turnover and scored 14 total points. Against a team with a perfect counterpunch, they're going to struggle. Michigan's on the precipice of their first College Football Playoff and come ready to swing. This game could get ugly.
The pick: Michigan 30-13
ACC Championship: #15 Pittsburgh (10-2) vs. #16 Wake Forest (10-2)
Saturday, December 4, 3:00 p.m., Charlotte, NC
The first ACC Championship to not feature Clemson in six years is promised to be an offensive showcase. Wake Forest and Pitt both run a breakneck offense, both averaging over 80 plays per game (second and fourth, respectively). Both teams feature nationally-acclaimed quarterbacks in Sam Hartman and Kenny Pickett.
What Wake Forest doesn't feature, though, is a defense. They're 118th against the run this season, allowing over 215 yards per game. The Demon Deacons are also 119th in explosive plays allowed, a category Pitt excels in. Wake doesn't operate in big plays, rather in chunk play after chunk play behind their famous slow mesh offense.
Pitt's superstar receiver Jordan Addison leads the nation in receiving touchdowns (17) and gets one of the most favorable matchups of the weekend. Ultimately, Pitt's defense is good enough to put the brakes on Wake's offense a time or two. The good news: fans of high-scoring affairs will love this game.
The pick: Pitt 48-35
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