College Football Conference Championship Game Scenarios Post-Week 10
Just three weeks remain in the 2023 college football regular season. That's three more opportunities for teams to make their case and secure a spot in their conference championship game. Just two teams – Florida State and Liberty – locked in positions in their league title games after 10 weeks with 18 more spots up for grabs.
Below, we'll look at the routes for every team to land in their conference championship game. Warning: It's messy. Stick with us throughout Weeks 11-13 for updates on conference championship scenarios as the pictures become more clear.
ACC Championship Game: Florida State vs. TBD
Saturday, Dec. 2, 8:00 p.m. ET (ABC)
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Oct 21, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4) celebrates after a first down catch during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
A 24-7 win over Pitt in Week 10 pushed Florida State to 7-0 in ACC play and guaranteed them a seat in Charlotte. The 'Noles await their opponent, who will be the second-place ACC team. The league axed divisions ahead of this year.
Louisville is in the driver's seat to the second team. Win out and the Cards punch their ticket to the title game; even one loss almost certainly gets them there, holding tiebreakers over Georgia Tech, NC State, and Boston College.
Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Boston College, Duke, NC State, and Virginia Tech would need Louisville to lose at least one game, more likely two, to have a chance. The Yellow Jackets hold a tiebreaker over UNC and Miami should there be a multiple-way tie at 6-2.
- Eliminated: Clemson, Pitt, Virginia, Wake Forest, Syracuse
American Championship Game: TBD vs. TBD
Saturday, Dec. 2, 4:00 p.m. ET (ABC or ESPN)
No. 1 seed home venue
Oct 13, 2023; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Tulane Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt (7) passes the ball during the first half against the Memphis Tigers at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
The AAC, like last year, is crowded at the top and will be a thrilling race to monitor. SMU takes their spot by winning out (the Mustangs did not play Tulane or UTSA). Should SMU lose and both UTSA and Tulane win their next two games, then their Week 13 head-to-head would determine one of the seats (or potentially both, should SMU lose twice and Memphis once).
Memphis must win out and hope UTSA or Tulane loses an additional game to their head-to-head to punch their ticket. FAU must win out, hope UTSA loses out, and hope either SMU loses out or Memphis loses twice.
USF, Navy, and Charlotte have remote chances, less than 1%, but aren't technically eliminated yet.
- Eliminated: North Texas, Tulsa, Temple, East Carolina, UAB, Rice
Big 12 Championship Game: TBD vs. TBD
Saturday, Dec. 2, 12:00 p.m. ET (ABC)
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Ollie Gordon II (0) runs past Oklahoma Sooners defensive back Reggie Pearson (21) and defensive lineman Rondell Bothroyd (80) during a Bedlam college football game between the Oklahoma State University Cowboys (OSU) and the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023. Oklahoma State won 27-24.
A cut-and-dry picture became muddied following Oklahoma's consecutive losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State. Texas sits in the driver's seat, needing only to not lose two of their final three games against TCU, Iowa State, and Texas Tech. Oklahoma State also controls its own destiny, holding tiebreakers over Oklahoma, Kansas, K-State, and West Virginia.
Kansas could reach Arlington should Oklahoma State or Texas lose two of their final three games and the Jayhawks win out. Kansas State requires Texas to lose twice, and the Wildcats need to win out, including a critical rivalry with the Jayhawks in Week 12. Iowa State needs to win out – including a pivotal game against Texas – and for Texas or Oklahoma State to lose at least one game.
Texas Tech mathematically is still alive, although they must win out and for each team ahead of them to lose at least one game, plus Texas or Oklahoma State lose at least two games. Tech plays Texas in Week 13.
TCU, Houston, and BYU have extremely contrived routes to Arlington that require a near-impossible benchmark of both winning out (multiple games against Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State) plus multiple losses by every team ahead of them. Their odds of making the Big 12 Championship are less than 1%, but they aren't eliminated for another week.
- Eliminated: Baylor, UCF, Cincinnati
Big Ten Championship Game: East vs. West
Saturday, Dec. 2, 8:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Nov 4, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) celebrates with offensive lineman Carson Hinzman (75) after scoring a touchdown against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Once again, the Big Ten East will likely be determined in Week 13 when Ohio State visits Michigan. Penn State has an outside chance, should they beat Michigan in Week 11 and Ohio State drops two of their final three conference games.
And once again, the Big Ten West is a total mess. No team is technically eliminated, and Twitter is tracking a route in which every team finishes in a seven-way tie. Iowa currently sits in the driver's seat but, as we saw last year, nothing is guaranteed. The Hawkeyes hold tiebreakers over Purdue, Wisconsin, and Northwestern. Minnesota beat Iowa, meaning they would make Indianapolis by winning out, and if Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern lose at least once.
Nebraska has the most control over their own destiny among the current 3-3 teams; win out – including games over Wisconsin and Iowa – and hope Minnesota loses once and the Huskers are in Indy.
Wisconsin plays both Nebraska and Minnesota to close the year, as well as Northwestern. The Badgers must win out and hope Iowa loses twice to secure their spot. Northwestern and Illinois are both technically alive, needing to win out and hope Iowa loses out, the three 3-3 teams lose at least twice, and the other 2-4 teams lose once. Purdue also technically could make it, but please see the Twitter link above for the explanation.
- Eliminated: Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan State, Indiana
Conference USA Championship Game: Liberty vs. TBD
Friday, Dec. 1, TBA (CBSSN)
Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
Dec 20, 2022; Boca Raton, Florida, USA; Liberty Flames quarterback Kaidon Salter (7) calls the snap against the Toledo Rockets during the second half in the 2022 Boca Raton Bowl at FAU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
At least once conference title race is straightforward...
Liberty locked in their Conference USA Championship seat this past week, although the seat was the Flames' to lose ever since they upended Western Kentucky three weeks ago. A win Saturday over Western Kentucky secures the second spot for New Mexico State and closes the door on the race.
WKU must win Saturday and either win their final CUSA game in Week 12 or hope New Mexico State loses theirs to claim their seat in Lynchburg.
- Eliminated: Jacksonville State, Louisiana Tech, UTEP, Middle Tennessee, FIU, Sam Houston State
MAC Championship Game: East vs. West
Saturday, Dec. 2, 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Dec 3, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Ohio University tight end Will Kacmarek (87) runs upfield after catching a pass as Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell (27) closes in the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
Toledo sits in the most firm position to make the MAC Championship at 5-0 in league play. Two wins locks in their spot, although beating Eastern Michigan this week all but locks up their spot. Northern Illinois must win out and hope Toledo loses out to grab their spot. Central Michigan must win out – including a Week 13 matchup with Toledo – and hope the Rockets lose an additional game to make Detroit. EMU must win out and hope Toledo loses an additional game.
The East isn't as cut-and-dry. Miami (OH) leads the race currently and can secure their spot with two more wins, or a win and a loss by Ohio and Bowling Green. Do note, they play Buffalo in Week 12, and a win there likely locks in their spot. However, the Bulls can make Detroit by winning out and hoping Miami and Bowling Green lose another contest
Bowling Green holds the tiebreaker over Buffalo but would need Miami to lose at least two games and Ohio to lose another, plus win themselves out. Ohio needs to win out and hope Miami loses two games, as the Bobcats have the tiebreaker over BG and play Buffalo this week.
- Eliminated: Akron, Kent State, Ball State, Western Michigan
Mountain West Championship Game: TBD vs. TBD
Saturday, Dec. 2, 3:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
No. 1 seed home venue
Oct 14, 2023; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty (2) tried to avoid Colorado State Rams defensive back Dominic Morris (12) at Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports
No conference is as still wide-open as the MWC is at this point. Just two teams are eliminated from the race, leaving 10 others still alive. The conference axed divisions this season.
Air Force sits in a commanding spot to not just play in the Mountain West title game but to host it. The Falcons are 5-0 and, even if they lose out, can still play in the game. They hold a critical tiebreaker over Wyoming but still play Boise State and UNLV – two of the top contestants – in their final three games. Two wins would stamp their ticket.
Fresno State has the tiebreaker over 4-1 UNLV and 3-2 Boise State, but not over 3-2 Wyoming. Winning two of their last three games would secure their spot. UNLV must win at least two games and hope Fresno State loses at least one game to play in the game. Boise State must win out and hope Fresno State loses at least twice, plus that UNLV loses at least once, or Air Force loses out.
Wyoming has the tiebreaker over Fresno State, but not over Air Force or Boise State, therefore the Pokes must win out, hope either Air Force loses out, UNLV loses an additional game (the two play in Week 11), and Boise State loses at least one game.
San Jose State must win out AND hope three of the following happen: Fresno loses an additional game (the two play in Week 11), Boise State loses at least once, UNLV loses an additional game (the two play in Week 13), Wyoming loses at least once, or Air Force loses out.
Utah State and Nevada have remote chances and are only not mathematically eliminated.
- Eliminated: Colorado State, Hawaii
Pac-12 Championship Game: TBD vs. TBD
Friday, Dec. 1, 8:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, NV)
Sep 30, 2022; Pasadena, California, USA; Washington Huskies wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk (2) runs into the end zone for a touchdown in the second half against the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Washington controls their own destiny, needing to win two of their final games to lock in their spot. Oregon can lock in the other spot by winning out. USC must win out, including a pivotal spot this week against Oregon, to get their spot. Should they lose, they would need Oregon to lose their other two games, Utah to lose once, and for the Trojans to win their other two to make it.
Oregon State has the tiebreaker over Utah. They must win out – two games of which come against Washington and Oregon – to punch their ticket. Utah can still make Las Vegas should they win out, Oregon State loses at least once, and Oregon loses at least twice. The Utes have the tiebreaker over USC, but not over either Oregon school.
Resurgent Arizona can make the Pac-12 Championship by running the table and hoping either USC loses once or Washington loses out. UA holds tiebreakers over Oregon State and UCLA.
UCLA needs a ton of help being the only three-loss team not eliminated of the group, starting with winning out. Additionally, every team above them must lose at least twice, plus Oregon or Washington losing out.
- Eliminated: Stanford, Colorado, Washington State, Cal, Arizona State
SEC Championship Game: East vs. West
Saturday, Dec. 2, 4:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Oct 14, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Dallas Turner (15) reacts after holding Arkansas Razorbacks to a loss of yardage during the fourth quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Week 10 did a lot to paint the SEC Championship Game picture. Georgia eliminated Missouri from contention while Alabama eliminated LSU.
Georgia all but has the East division locked up after beating Missouri this week. Just one win in the next two weeks sends Georgia to Atlanta for a third straight season. Tennessee needs Georgia to lose to Ole Miss and again to them in Week 12 in order to lock in their spot.
Alabama wins the West with a win this week or a loss by Ole Miss. The Tide hold tiebreakers over Ole Miss and LSU. Ole Miss needs to win out and hope Alabama loses both remaining SEC games to make Atlanta.
- Eliminated: Missouri, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn, Mississippi State, Arkansas
Sun Belt Championship Game: East vs. West
Saturday, Dec. 2, 4:00 p.m. ET (ESPN or ABC)
No. 1 seed home venue
Sep 2, 2023; Waco, Texas, USA; Texas State Bobcats quarterback TJ Finley (7) stands on the pocket against the Baylor Bears during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
The Sun Belt East should be James Madison's, but the Dukes are still ineligible from postseason play due to their transition period into the FBS. Instead, Georgia Southern controls their own destiny, needing to win out to make the title game. Coastal Carolina can make the game should they win out, and Southern to lose one game. If the Chants lose a game, they need Southern to lose twice and Georgia State and App State to lose at least once.
Appalachian State punches their ticket by winning out and hoping Coastal Carolina loses at least once. Georgia State needs to win out their remaining Sun Belt games and hope both Coastal Carolina and Southern lose out. Old Dominion needs everyone ahead of them to lose at least twice, for them to win out their Sun Belt games, and for App State to lose at least once.
Troy controls their own destiny in the West division and can afford one loss on their ledger. Texas State and Arkansas State need Troy to lose twice and to win out; in that case, the winner of their Week 12 head-to-head would secure their spot. Louisiana needs to win out (including a Week 12 game at Troy) and hope the Trojans and Red Wolves lose at least twice, plus for Texas State to lose at least once.
South Alabama needs to win out – including games over both Arkansas State and Texas State – and for Troy to lose at least twice and Louisiana to lose once.
- Eliminated: James Madison, Marshall, Southern Miss, ULM
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