Predicting Every 2022-23 College Football Bowl Game Score, Outcome
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Bowl Season is knocking on the door, with the Bahamas Bowl kicking everything off Friday, Dec. 16 at 11:30 a.m. ET. From there, the most wonderful time of the year hits fourth gear– with 41 bowls played through Jan. 2. The National Championship wraps up the season on Jan. 9.
With every matchup set, let's predict the outcome of each one. Because Bowl Season is always predictable and never unexpected.
HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl: UAB (6-6) vs. Miami-OH (6-6)
Friday, Dec. 16, 11:30 a.m., ESPN
Thomas Robinson Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
Anytime you can fade the MAC in bowl games, you do so. UAB is playing for Bryant Vincent, who will be coaching his last game here despite the wishes of the team. Dewayne McBride leads the nation in rushing and the Blazers are a bigger, stronger, and more talented team than Miami-OH can handle.
The pick: UAB 31-14
Duluth Trading Cure Bowl: No. 24 Troy (11-2) vs. No. 25 UTSA (11-2)
Friday, Dec. 16, 3:00 p.m., ESPN
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, FL)
Frank Harris is back for another season with UTSA and will play in this bowl. This is one of the best bowl matchups of the entire season, pitting the Conference-USA champion against the Sun Belt Champion. Ultimately, UTSA is a better third down and red zone team with the better QB.
The pick: UTSA 29-24
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: Louisville (7-5) vs. Cincinnati (9-3)
Saturday, Dec. 17, 11:00 a.m., ESPN
Fenway Park (Boston, MA)
What a circus of a game this could shape out to be. Cincinnati hired away Louisville's coach Scott Satterfield, and both teams were ransacked by opt outs. Star QB Malik Cunningham and starting RB TiYon Evans headline the absences for the Cardinals while Tyler Scott and JQ Hardaway top the Bearcats' list. This one's played in Fenway Park with some truly bizarre field dimensions.
Flip a coin.
The pick: Louisville 20-17
PUBG New Mexico Bowl: BYU (7-5) vs. SMU (7-5)
Saturday, Dec. 17, 2:15 p.m., ESPN
University Stadium (Albuquerque, NM)
What initially opened up with Bowl Season's highest over/under total (71.5!) came crashing down following rumors of Jarren Hall not being healthy enough to play and SMU star Rashee Rice opting out. However, neither team fields much of a defense. Should Hall not go, BYU will look to third-plus stringers to start.
The pick: SMU 45-35
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl: Washington State (7-5) vs. Fresno State (9-4)
Saturday, Dec. 17, 3:30 p.m., ABC
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)
Washington State is without their top two receivers and their defensive coordinator for this one. Fresno State is not only a dangerous team, but a much more prolific one with Jake Haener in the driver's seat, which he will be for this game. Who gets up more to play this game? I vote the Bulldogs.
The pick: Fresno State 29-26
LendingTree Bowl: Southern Miss (6-6) vs. Rice (5-7)
Saturday, Dec. 17, 5:45 p.m., ESPN
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, AL)
Frankly, Rice lucked into playing in this bowl game. They have all sorts of question marks at QB and receiver while Southern Miss is a team that earned their spot and isn't satisfied with the berth. Rice doesn't do anything particularly excellent, but they're especially bad against the run. Southern Miss is a run-exclusive team.
The pick: Southern Miss 30-6
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Florida (6-6) vs. No. 14 Oregon State (9-3)
Saturday, Dec. 17, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, NV)
Has there been a year where Florida truly wanted to play in a non-New Year's Six bowl game? This year's no different. They're decimated by opt outs, highlighted by QB Anthony Richardson, and transfer Jack Miller will get the start. Miller has zero pass attempts this season. Oregon State on the other hand is looking to capitalize on a season where they overachieved.
One team wants to be here, the other doesn't.
The pick: Oregon State 34-10
Frisco Bowl: Boise State (9-4) vs. North Texas (7-6)
Saturday, Dec. 17, 9:15 p.m., ESPN
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, TX)
This game might feature the biggest age gap between two starting QBs in bowl history. UNT's Austin Aune is 29 years old while Boise State's Taylen Green is 19. Green stepped in for the Broncos and immediately elevated their offense to 34 points per game. North Texas fired coach Seth Littrell in a surprising move after losing the C-USA Championship game.
The pick: Boise State 33-24
Myrtle Beach Bowl: UConn (6-6) vs. Marshall (8-4)
Monday, Dec. 19, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Brooks Stadium (Conway, SC)
Jim Mora led UConn to their first bowl game since 2015 in his first season on campus. The Huskies pulled two major upsets this season over Fresno State (sans Jake Haener) and No. 19 Liberty (as their coach was leaving town), but otherwise haven't beaten a team with a pulse. Marshall is a vastly improved team over the course of the year looking to dot the exclamation point on their season against feisty UConn.
The pick: Marshall 26-14
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: San Jose State (7-4) vs. Eastern Michigan (8-4)
Tuesday, Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, ID)
The MAC has won fewer than 36% of its bowl games over the last five seasons. Ultimately, their wins come over each other and the majority of their non-conference matchups result in losses. San Jose State is a bigger and better football team, especially over EMU who played the easiest schedule this season, per ESPN's FPI.
The pick: San Jose State 29-20
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo (8-5) vs. Liberty (8-4)
Tuesday, Dec. 20, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, FL)
OK– I'll quit ragging on the MAC (I'm allowed to, I'm a MAC grad). Liberty's season fell off a cliff the minute Hugh Freeze was rumored to be leaving for Auburn. The Flames visibly quit on their season, getting boat raced by New Mexico State 49-14. A few defensive starters opted out, particularly on the defensive line, and this team is looking forward to a nice South Florida vacation and nothing else.
The pick: Toledo 29-17
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: South Alabama (10-2) vs. Western Kentucky (8-5)
Wednesday, Dec. 21, 9:00 p.m., ESPN
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
What a terrific matchup we have on hand in New Orleans! After initially entering the transfer portal, prolific WKU QB Austin Reed is returning for next season and playing in this game. Reed threw for 4,249 yards– second most in the nation– but faces a stiff South Alabama defense. The Jags held teams to the 22nd-lowest passing success rate on the season.
The pick: South Alabama 31-24
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force (9-3) vs. Baylor (6-6)
Thursday, Dec. 22, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, TX)
2022 was a hugely disappointing season for Baylor after their Big 12 Championship season last year. To make matters worse, they have to play their bowl game in their arch rival's stadium. Air Force is a well-coached team with plenty of strong wins and a rock-solid defense. If rolling the dice in the "Who's more motivated" category, it's the Falcons.
Upset alert!
The pick: Air Force 19-17
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Houston (7-5) vs. Louisiana (6-6)
Friday, Dec. 23, 3:00 p.m., ESPN
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, LA)
Despite Louisiana playing their bowl game in their home state, Houston only has one hour longer of a trek just across the Louisiana border to play the game. Nathaniel Dell is off to the NFL, but will play one last game as a Cougar here. What does that suggest? Effort. Houston's resume is much more impressive than Louisiana, who seriously undelivered this season.
The pick: Houston 33-30
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Missouri (6-6) vs. Wake Forest (7-5)
Friday, Dec. 23, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Missouri watched a handful of players hit the transfer portal and opt out of this game. However, these Tigers fought their way to bowl eligibility and draw a Wake Forest team who saw the wheels fall off the wagon down the stretch. Momentum is a major factor in bowl games, so Wake Forest is on upset watch.
The pick: Missouri 24-21
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl: Middle Tennessee (7-5) vs. San Diego State (7-5)
Saturday, Dec. 24, 8:00 p.m., ESPN
Ching Complex (Honolulu, HI)
Per head coach Brady Hoke, the Hawaii Bowl was San Diego State's preferred landing spot. The team has the shortest trek of any mainland college football team and they're getting there six days in advance. Middle Tennessee played the 121st-ranked schedule per ESPN's FPI and are one of the lowest-rated teams this bowl season. Barring self-inflicted troubles, the Aztecs should control this game.
The pick: San Diego State 37-14
Quick Lane Bowl: New Mexico State (6-6) vs. Bowling Green (6-6)
Monday, Dec. 26, 2:30 p.m. ESPN
Ford Field (Detroit, MI)
Someone alert the Sickos Committee! New Mexico State played an extra game against FCS Valparaiso to become bowl eligible for the first time since 1961. Bowling Green broke their own bowl drought that dated back to 2015. Deigo Pavia for the Aggies has 11 scored TDs and no turnovers over the last two games, however those came against Liberty (who we mentioned above had quit) and Valpo.
The pick: Bowling Green 16-14
SERVPro First Responder Bowl: Utah State (6-6) vs. Memphis (6-6)
Tuesday, Dec. 27, 3:15 p.m., ESPN
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas, TX)
Utah State's leading rusher Calvin Tyler Jr. opted out of the game for the NFL Draft, and leading QB rusher Logan Bonner is injured. Essentially, Utah State just doesn't have the bodies to keep up in this game. Memphis did exactly what was expected of them this year: beat the teams they should and play hard in losses to better teams.
The pick: Memphis 35-17
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl: East Carolina (7-5) vs. Coastal Carolina (9-3)
Tuesday, Dec. 27, 6:45 p.m., ESPN
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, AL)
Coastal Carolina may have the better record and name recognition, but there may not be a team more ravaged by personnel changes than the Chants. Head coach Jamey Chadwell is out for the Liberty job and top players Willie Lumpkin and Josiah Stewart hit the transfer portal. While Grayson McCall is playing his final game for Coastal here, there's not enough left on the roster.
East Carolina is hungry after their bowl game last year was axed.
The pick: East Carolina 45-31
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern (6-6) vs. Buffalo (6-6)
Tuesday, Dec. 27, 12:00 p.m., ESPN
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, AL)
Pick against the MAC! Buffalo needed a come-from-behind win over Akron to become bowl eligible. Further, the Bulls may be without their top two rushers this game. Georgia Southern's Kyle Vantrease plays his former school in Montgomery and the Sun Belt regularly rolls MAC teams in postseason play.
The pick: Georgia Southern 35-20
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wisconsin (6-6) vs. Oklahoma State (7-5)
Tuesday, Dec. 27, 10:15 p.m., ESPN
Chase Field (Phoenix, AZ)
Welcome to this year's opt out bowl. There's too many starters not playing here to list, but most prominently QB Spencer Sanders for Oklahoma State and LB Nick Herbig for Wisconsin. The Badgers had new head coach Luke Fickell in to help prep for this game and the Pokes fell flat on their face down the back half of the season. They're too injured and don't have the depth to beat Wisconsin.
The pick: Wisconsin 24-6
Military Bowl: Duke (8-4) vs. UCF (9-4)
Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2:00 p.m., ESPN
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, MD)
Ryan O'Keefe is the biggest name from a slew of transfers for UCF in this game and QB John Rhys Plumlee is playing injured. Though Gus Malzahn holds a bowl coaching experience advantage over first-year Mike Elko, this is an exciting opportunity for Duke. QB Riley Leonard should have a good outing against a bad UCF pass defense.
The pick: Duke 34-28
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (6-6) vs. Kansas (6-6)
Wednesday, Dec. 28, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, TN)
KJ Jefferson is running it back for one more season with Arkansas, but a bunch of players opted out for this game. The Razorbacks handed in an underwhelming 2022 after a lot of preseason promise. However, Kansas fell apart over the back half of the season, a tough thing to bet against. This game comes down to effort, and Lance Leipold's team doesn't get this chance often.
The pick: Kansas 36-33
SDCCU Holiday Bowl: North Carolina (9-4) vs. No. 15 Oregon (9-3)
Wednesday, Dec. 28, 8:00 p.m., FOX
Petco Park (San Diego, CA)
Everyone's expecting a shootout in San Diego between two high-octane offenses with defenses that decided not to play this season. UNC is dealing with the absence of star WR Josh Downs and both starting corners hitting the portal. Whoever sits behind them was deemed less talented, even on a UNC defense as porous as this one. Bo Nix will play one last college football game and there's much more to trust about Dan Lanning's crew.
The pick: Oregon 43-29
TaxAct Texas Bowl: Texas Tech (7-5) vs. Ole Miss (8-4)
Wednesday, Dec. 28, 9:00 p.m. ESPN
NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)
No team collapsed as severely down the stretch as Ole Miss. From top-10 to unranked thanks to three consecutive losses and noise surrounding Lane Kiffin leaving really scrambled this team's focus. On the other hand, Texas Tech is riding a three-game winning streak, although star defensive lineman Tyree Wilson won't play with an injury.
But when it comes to weird games and upset specialists, look no further than Texas Tech.
The pick: Texas Tech 37-33
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Minnesota (8-4) vs. Syracuse (7-5)
Thursday, Dec. 29, 2:00 p.m., ESPN
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
Don't overthink this one. Minnesota is proficient at running the ball with Mohammed Ibrahim and Syracuse doesn't defend the run all that well. The Orange lost five of their last six after starting off 6-0 and both coordinators are headed for other jobs.
The pick: Minnesota 20-10
Cheez-It Bowl: No. 13 Florida State (9-3) vs. Oklahoma (6-6)
Thursday, Dec. 29, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, FL)
It's a race to see which team phones in their bowl game more: Oklahoma or Florida. After a majorly disappointing season, there's a mass exodus of the Sooners roster, highlighted by both starting tackles on a bad defensive line. Star defenders Jammie Robinson and Jared Verse both opted to play in this game, meaning the Noles are taking it seriously. QB Jordan Travis is also back for another season. Cover your eyes, folks.
The pick: Florida State 41-14
Valero Alamo Bowl: No. 12 Washington (10-2) vs. No. 20 Texas (8-4)
Thursday, Dec. 29, 9:00 p.m. ESPN
Alamodome (San Antonio, TX)
Quinn Ewers didn't play very well down the back stretch of the season after turning plenty of heads against Alabama and Oklahoma. It looked like the game moved too fast for an inexperienced Ewers and didn't slow down as the season went on. Michael Penix Jr. is back for Washington, playing in his first-ever bowl game. Neither team fields an inspiring defense, though the Longhorns roster the better unit there.
Texas is 4-0 in their last four bowl games, three of which were the Alamo Bowl. This is comfortable space for them. Maybe too comfortable.
The pick: Washington 41-35
Duke's Mayo Bowl: No. 23 NC State (8-4) vs. Maryland (7-5)
Friday, Dec. 30, 12:00 p.m. ESPN
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)
Maryland saw their top three receivers exit for the NFL Draft and more players for the transfer portal. Taulia Tagovailoa will be ready to play in the game after battling injury. Who suits up for NC State at QB? Your guess is as good as mine, but the highest-possible starter would be fourth on the depth chart. An in-state bowl game for NC State, who also fields a better defense is what gives the Wolfpack the nod.
The pick: NC State 24-20
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Pitt (8-4) vs. No. 18 UCLA (9-3)
Friday, Dec. 30, 2:00 p.m., CBS
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, TX)
Two of the three biggest pieces for Pitt won't play in this game: All American defensive lineman Calijah Kancey and QB Kedon Slovis. Behind him are extremely inexperienced QBs who probably won't be the first to expose UCLA's bad passing defense. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is suiting up for his last game as a Bruin and he's looking to capitalize on a decorated career.
The pick: UCLA 32-24
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: No. 19 South Carolina (8-4) vs. No. 24 Notre Dame (8-4)
Friday, Dec. 30, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, FL)
Michael Mayer opted out of this game for the NFL Draft, but original starting QB Tyler Buchner may be back after spending all season injured. However, without Mayer, the Irish offense may as well not exist. South Carolina is rolling and didn't see too many players opt out of the game. Shane Beamer knows how to get his guys ready for a game and look to record a second-straight bowl upset.
The pick: South Carolina 27-24
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Ohio (9-4) vs. Wyoming (7-5)
Friday, Dec. 30, 4:30 p.m.
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, AZ)
This would be a prime instance to pick against the MAC, but Wyoming is dealing with serious absences at the running back position. The Cowboys are a run-exclusive team and their top two rushers hit the portal while two more are injured. Ohio's starting QB Kurtis Rourke won't play with injury, either. However, the Bobcats are currently the healthier team.
The pick: Ohio 23-16
Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 7 Clemson (11-2) vs. No. 6 Tennessee (10-2)
Friday, Dec. 30, 8:00 p.m., ESPN
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL)
Tennessee is without their three most prolific players: Hendon Hooker (ACL), Jaylin Hyatt (opt out), and Cedric Tillman (opt out). Clemson is down two defenders, but also give way to Cade Klubnik, who stepped in for DJ Uiagalelei in the ACC Championship game. Ultimately, there's more to trust with Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers than Tennessee's devastated roster.
The pick: Clemson 36-21
Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 9 Kansas State (10-3) vs. No. 5 Alabama (10-2)
Saturday, Dec. 31, 12:00 p.m. ESPN
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
While they haven't opted out yet, there's a strong chance both Bryce Young and Will Anderson skip this game for Alabama– possibly more. The Tide lost both games this year by a combined four points, but a Sugar Bowl berth feels like a consolation prize for this program. Conversely, this is the best and most motivated Kansas State team in some time. They're playing on fire right now after winning the Big 12 Championship and there's more to be excited about with the Cats.
The pick: Kansas State 29-26
TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Iowa (7-5) vs. Kentucky (7-5)
Saturday, Dec. 31, 12:00 p.m., ABC
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, TN)
The most notable opt out from this game is Kentucky's Will Levis, but he's not the only one. Iowa will start a QB with no passing attempts in his career, likely Joey Labas. However, in the Brian Ferentz system, QB doesn't really matter since the team doesn't throw the football. This point total is the lowest in Bowl history and pushing on lowest in modern college football history at just 31.5 points. Get ready for zero offense.
The pick: Iowa 17-14
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Michigan (13-0) vs. No. 3 TCU (12-1), CFP Semifinal
Saturday, Dec. 31, 4:00 p.m., ESPN
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
I'll do a more in-depth dive into each semifinal coming soon.
The pick: Michigan
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 1 Georgia (13-0) vs. No. 4 Ohio State (11-1), CFP Semifinal
Saturday, Dec. 31, 8:00 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
I'll do a more in-depth dive into each semifinal coming soon.
The pick: Georgia
ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 22 Mississippi State (8-4) vs. Illinois (8-4)
Monday, Jan. 2, 12:00 p.m., ESPN2
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Picking this game feels wrong in the wake of the passing of coach Mike Leach. As he would have wished, the game will go on, and you can bet these players are coaching for The Pirate.
The pick: Mississippi State
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: No. 10 USC (11-2) vs. No. 16 Tulane (11-2)
Monday, Jan. 2, 1:00 p.m., ESPN
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
Heisman winner Caleb Williams may actually be injured, but he has plenty of time to get healthy to play Tulane. Missing out on the College Football Playoff was a major bummer for the Trojans, who now have to play a frisky and extremely motivated Tulane team that's already upset a top-10 opponent. One team has nothing to lose and the other has everything to lose.
The pick: Tulane 41-31
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: No. 17 LSU (9-4) vs. Purdue (8-5)
Monday, Jan. 2, 1:00 p.m., ABC
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, FL)
Purdue lost head coach Jeff Brohm to Louisville and they are major underdogs to LSU. The Tigers have the better players, particularly stud freshman Harold Perkins. Brian Kelly doesn't have a terrific track record in big games, but he has a strong record in lesser bowl games and a major experience bump.
The pick: LSU 34-10
Rose Bowl Game: No. 11 Penn State (10-2) vs. No. 8 Utah (10-3)
Monday, Jan. 2, 5:00 p.m. ESPN
Rose Bowl Stadium (Pasadena, CA)
Sean Clifford may be strapping up for Penn State for the final time. Across the field, likely so is Cam Rising for Utah. The Utes are down All American corner Clark Phillips, who declared for the NFL Draft, and prolific tight end Dalton Kincaid due to injury. Penn State is without an All American corner of their own, Joey Porter, and top receiver Parker Washington, who are off to the NFL.
But when it comes to tough-nosed and talented football teams, Utah gets the nod. They're hungry for a Rose Bowl win after losing their first-ever bid in heart-breaking fashion last year.
The pick: Utah 42-41
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