Projecting 2022 College Football New Year's Six Bowl Games
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The halfway point of the college football season means the conversation shifts to conference championships, New Year's Six bowl games, and the College Football Playoff. Instead of wallowing in sadness that the season is already halfway behind us, let's project New Year's Six bowls.
What might the bowl matchups look like? What do they look like as it stands today?
Note: "As it stands" is taken from whichever team is ranked higher in the AP Poll ahead of Week 8. Our projections are the teams listed in headings.
Capital One Orange Bowl: Wake Forest Vs. Ole Miss
Friday, Dec. 30, 7:00 p.m. CT, Miami Gardens, FL.
The highest-ranked ACC team, if not in the College Football Playoff (CFP), lands a bid in the Orange Bowl. You'll read on to see why Clemson isn't the representative here, so (spoiler!) ACC runner-up Wake Forest gets the nod.
The at-large bid goes to the highest-ranked team that doesn't have a tie-in bid to fulfill, which we project to be Ole Miss. The rest of the schedule for 7-0 Ole Miss features at LSU, Alabama, at Arkansas, and Mississippi State. There very well could be two or even three losses on this slate. But if they drop just one game, Ole Miss could wind up in the NY6 bowl below.
Matchup as it stands today: #5 Clemson vs. #7 Ole Miss
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Tennessee Vs. TCU
Saturday, Dec. 31, 11:00 a.m. CT, New Orleans, LA
Annually, the Sugar Bowl features a matchup between either the SEC and Big 12 champion, or the highest-ranked SEC and Big 12 team that doesn't land in the CFP. In this instance, that's Tennessee and TCU, which would be one of the best matchups of the season between two explosive offenses.
TCU is playing the best football in the Big 12 and has already toppled Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. A game against two-loss Texas is on tap as well as their Week 8 tilt with Kansas State. If TCU makes it to Arlington, AT&T Stadium would be bathed in purple as TCU's campus sits just 30 minutes west.
The Vols vaulted themselves into the top four with their heroic win over Alabama in Week 7. However, they still have a gauntlet ahead in Kentucky and Georgia in back-to-back weeks, plus a possible date at the SEC Championship. If they upset Georgia as well, the conversation changes. But to ask Tennessee to pull that off after beating Kentucky and then play possibly Alabama again in the title game?
Matchup as it stands today: #6 Alabama vs. #8 TCU
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: Alabama Vs. Clemson
Saturday, Dec. 31, TBA, Atlanta, GA
The Peach Bowl this year is a CFP semifinal game. Projecting Alabama to be the two seed come the CFP means they run the table, including a win in the SEC Championship. We've seen this story before: Nick Saban is upset on the road earlier on in the year and rights the ship and mows over the rest of their competition.
Conversely, Clemson has no challengers in between them and the ACC Championship. Previously-donned blockbusters have fizzled due to their opponent's underdelivering: at Notre Dame and against Miami. Their toughest test stands in that title game, but the rest of the ACC isn't very inspiring. They handled Wake Forest once, and I'd bet them to do it again in Charlotte.
It's a tired chapter in the CFP for anyone not in Tuscaloosa or Clemson, but it's a realistic matchup.
Matchup as it stands today: #1 Georgia vs. #4 Michigan
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State Vs. Georgia
Saturday, Dec. 31, TBA, Glendale, AZ.
As tired as these four teams in the CFP are, this would actually be a terrific matchup we haven't seen before. Ohio State has emerged as the best team in the country and are betting favorites to win the National Championship.
This matchup is under the assumption that Georgia runs the table but loses to Alabama in the SEC Championship. Take that as you may with a game against Tennessee still on the table.
Ohio State is no stranger to the Fiesta Bowl, having handled Clemson in it twice in the CFP in year's past. Buckeye fans are still haunted by the 2019 edition that featured a questionable call that ultimately cost them the game. But a date against Georgia in the desert would be one heck of a football game.
Matchup as it stands today: #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Tennessee
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: USC Vs. Cincinnati
Monday, Jan. 2, 12:00 p.m. CT, Arlington, TX
This year's Cotton Bowl doesn't land inside the CFP and is between two at-large bids. The committee decides where the at-larges fall according to geography and matchup intrigue. Cincinnati has landed in the Cotton Bowl each of the last two seasons to lauded praise, so why not a third trip?
USC just lost their first game under Lincoln Riley and has a cakewalk of a schedule ahead. Their only tough tests standing in front of them is against cross-town rival UCLA later on and of course the Pac-12 Championship. Whoever wins between USC and UCLA likely will get a spot in the conference title game and a close loss there won't send them spiraling out of NY6 contention.
Instead of sending USC across the country to fill the Orange Bowl at-large bid, Arlington is a happy medium.
Matchup as it stands today: #11 Oklahoma State vs. #21 Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Michigan Vs. Oregon
Monday, Jan. 2, 4:00 p.m. CT, Pasadena, CA
The Granddaddy of Them All features the highest-ranked Big Ten team if not the champion (in this case, not) and the highest-ranked Pac-12 team if not the champion (in this case, is). Michigan is playing arguably the best football in the country behind a vaunted run game led by star Blake Corum. However, the Wolverines travel to Columbus for The Game and have to handle an Ohio State team they beat last year with revenge on the mind.
Oregon on the other hand has the most clear path to the Pac-12 Championship game. Should they win at home in Week 8 against UCLA, they handle Utah at home as well. Overreactions to a Week 1 blowout at the hands of Georgia still loom large, but Oregon is the best team in the Pac-12.
This would also be one of the best matchups of the season and a lot better than the matchup as it would stand today (below):
Matchup as it stands today: #16 Penn State Vs. #9 UCLA
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