TCU Football Opponent Preview: SMU Mustangs

Coming off a phenomenal year, the SMU Mustangs look to make another run at the College Football Playoff and ACC title.

Sep 23, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; SMU Mustangs head coach Rhett Lashlee prepares to lead his team on to the field to face the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

0-0. 453. September 13. FB SMU. 0-0. . 466. .

Last year, the SMU Mustangs made the jump to the Power Conferences, joining the ACC. Head coach Rhett Lashlee led SMU to the ACC Championship game–missing out on hoisting the trophy by three points–and a College Football Playoff berth. The Mustangs again have reason for optimism as a large portion of the team returns in 2025. Can SMU make another run at the ACC title and a CFP berth?

The TCU Horned Frogs have a longstanding rivalry with SMU, making this Week 4 opponent exceedingly familiar. Unfortunately, the 104th Battle for the Iron Skillet marks the last, at least for the scheduled future. For the (perhaps) final time, let's preview SMU as a rivalry matchup for TCU.

To count down until kickoff, tune in every week with TCU On SI for an extensive preview on every foe the Horned Frogs face this fall.

2025 SMU Football At A Glance

• Name: Southern Methodist Mustangs
• Stadium: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, TX (capacity: 32,000)
• Head coach: Rhett Lashlee (4th season)
• Offensive coordinator: Casey Woods
• Defensive coordinator: Scott Symons
• 2024 record: 11-3 (8-0 ACC)

SMU Football In 2024: Proving They Belong

Dec 21, 2024; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs head coach Rhett Lashlee reacts during the first half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

If you questioned the viability of SMU winning 11 games after making the Power Conference jump about 365 days ago, no unbiased party would doubt your stance. After all, SMU only marked a .628 winning percentage as a member of the American from 2020-22. In 2023, the Mustangs finished 11-3 and beat Tulane for the AAC Championship, but fell apart in the Fenway Bowl against Boston College.

In 2024, Lashlee silenced the doubters. Following a bizarre Week 0 close call at Nevada (a 29-24 win) and early-season loss to then-unknown BYU (who would finish 11-2 themselves), SMU ran through their new ACC schedule, finishing a perfect 8-0 in league play. That mark landed them a spot in Charlotte to take on powerhouse Clemson in the ACC Championship. SMU lost that game, 34-31, but their spirited performance punched them a ticket to the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.

That success came as a surprise – aside from making the league jump, SMU also made a change from star QB Preston Stone, who suffered a significant injury in 2023. Kevin Jennings took over and never surrendered the QB1 spot, throwing for over 3,200 yards and rushing for nearly 500 more (37 combined touchdowns).

Ultimately, SMU's season came to a close in a daunting road Playoff environment at Penn State. However, the successes of 2024 cannot be ignored.

SMU Mustangs Offense Preview

Nov 30, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) in action during the game between the SMU Mustangs and the California Golden Bears at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

SMU did what good teams do offensively: score enough points to topple tough defensive opponents and bolster their season-long marks against bad defensive opponents. Against teams ranked outside the top 50 in points per drive allowed, the Mustangs averaged 41.3 points per game; against those inside the top 50, 23.5 points per game.

Jennings returns to the lead the offense as the team's leading passer and rusher for 2025. Behind Jennings, SMU added Wisconsin and Miami (FL) transfer Tyler Van Dyke. The senior isn't likely to play this season after suffering a season-ending injury last year, but provides years of FBS experience to the QB room. The backfield is only half-complete, though, as the Mustangs need to find a new workhorse running back. UCLA transfer TJ Harden presents an interesting candidate to lead the rushing attack while redshirt freshman Derrick McFall appears to lead the depth chart this spring.

Lashlee's offense excelled at spreading the ball around. Though the top two receivers from last year depart, three receivers with at least 300 yards from last year return. Jordan Hudson leads the group along with tight end RJ Maryland. Hudson, Maryland, and second TE Matthew Hibner combine to return 13 receiving touchdowns.

Three starters from last year's offensive line–including All-ACC selections Logan Parr and PJ Williams–return and SMU added Addison Nichols, who started 12 games at center for Arkansas last season. Savion Byrd makes up the fourth returning FBS starter. This group is extremely experienced and should be one of the better units in the country.

SMU Mustangs Defense Preview

Nov 23, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs cornerback Deuce Harmon (7) intercepts a pass intended for Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Malachi Fields (8) during the second half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images / Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Scott Symons knows how to coordinate a defense. The last two seasons, he orchestrated a unit that finished 16th and 14th in points per drive allowed and should again suffocate opponents. Second-leading tacker Isaiah Nwokobia returns (100 tackles, 3 interceptions) as does ball-hawking safety Ahmaad Moses (6 PBU, 3 INT). Corner Deuce Harmon broke up an ACC-leading nine passes. The secondary was the strength of this defense and should be so again.

The front seven is more a concern. All three starting linebackers from last year depart and only one projected starter, East Carolina transfer Zakye Barker, provides FBS starting experience. APEX Isaiah Smith notched an impressive 6.5 sacks last season as an involved rotational player (note: beyond Week 0, these sacks largely came in garbage time).

SMU retools its defensive line, as well. Two transfers, Purdue's Jeffrey M'Ba and Texas State's Terry Webb, bring 35 FBS starts between them. However, significant talent was lost up front, namely Ahmad Walker and Elijah Roberts.

So long as Symons heads this defense, there's confidence that it'll be a strong unit. Another top-15 finish isn't the most likely outcome, though don't expect the Mustangs to fall outside the top 40 thanks to a blanket secondary and sufficient size up front.

Best Case Scenario For SMU

Nov 16, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; SMU Mustangs wide receiver Jordan Hudson (8) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Boston College Eagles during the second half at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

SMU is one of just 26 FBS teams to return its head coach, both coordinators, and primary starting quarterback. Though departing leading rusher Brashard Smith takes over 1,300 rushing yards with him, SMU returns the bulk core of an offense that was very successful despite early-season turnover.

We can count on two things for SMU: offensive experience where it counts (QB and OL) and a very strong secondary. Those two items can carry the Mustangs quite far. The early season slate of defenses isn't terribly stout–Baylor didn't field a top 70 defense and the other two foes were in the FCS last season–giving Lashlee time to figure out a new back.

SMU performed well in one-score games, posting a 3-2 record, and all three of its losses last season came to 10+ win teams (BYU, Clemson, Penn State). Returning good experience and coaching means SMU will again be dangerous.

This is a team fully capable of securing another CFP berth and getting to the ACC Championship game. Sportsbooks line SMU with a preseason win total proposition set at 8.5 (~53% likelihood of finishing over that number).

Worst Case Scenario For SMU

Oct 19, 2024; Stanford, California, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs head coach Rhett Lashlee (center) gestures during the second quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

There is a big however for this forecast. That however lies in SMU's schedule. The Mustangs visit TCU and Clemson and host Miami (FL) and Louisville – all three of the ACC foes are the three favorites to win the league, followed by SMU itself. Other tricky games include Baylor and Syracuse (both at home), both teams projected to play well and potentially progress from winning years in 2024. Stanford is interesting and potentially dangerous if no other reason than they're in a gap year with absolutely nothing to lose. (Note: I'm leaning more as a reason for this team to implode to the bottom of the FBS, though.)

Two additional tricky scheduling spots must to be mentioned:

1. SMU visits Wake Forest when the Demon Deacons have a rest advantage and SMU visited Clemson the week before
2. SMU visits Boston College after the Miami game and leading into a bye week

Though the Mustangs could field a top-15 team, an 8-4 record or worse can't be ruled out. Should the front seven cave a bit, those one-score wins over Duke and Louisville quickly become losses. Last year wasn't exactly a team operating on a razor's edge, but the 2025 team appears to have less room for error with a comparable (or more difficult) schedule.

I'm not eager to lay my money down on an Under bet for SMU's win total. But there's enough important turnover (namely along the defensive line and in replacing a 1,300-yard rusher) to waver on laying it down on the Over.

2025 SMU Mustangs Schedule

Date	Opponent
Aug. 30	East Texas A&M (FCS)
Sept. 6	Baylor
Sept. 13	at Missouri State
Sept. 20	at TCU
Sept. 27	BYE
Oct. 4	Syracuse
Oct. 11	Stanford
Oct. 18	at Clemson
Oct. 25	at Wake Forest
Nov. 1	Miami (FL)
Nov. 8	at Boston College
Nov. 15	BYE
Nov. 22	Louisville
Nov. 29	at Cal

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