Where No. 10 TCU Women's Basketball Falls in Latest NCAA Tournament Projections

No. 10 TCU women’s basketball remained a No. 3 seed in ESPN's latest NCAA Tournament projections. This result comes after Sunday’s win over then-No. 18 Baylor, which gave the Horned Frogs their second straight outright Big 12 Conference regular season title. The tournament’s top seeds are still UConn, UCLA, Texas, and South Carolina.

Current NCAA Tournament Projections & Conference Tournaments

This particular projection placed TCU in the Fort Worth region 3 with South Carolina as the No. 1 seed. The Horned Frogs would host McNeese (14 seed), Alabama (6), and North Dakota State (11) in the first and second rounds and then play Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight tournament games at Dickies Arena, if they make it that far.

Conference tournament outcomes can shift NCAA Tournament projections. TCU would need to at least reach the Big 12 tournament title game, if not win it, to give itself a chance at a two seed. Right now, LSU, Vanderbilt, Iowa, and Michigan are the No. 2 seeds, while Duke, Louisville, and Oklahoma round out the No. 3 seeds.

TCU Women's basketball — Forward Marta Suarez led TCU in scoring against Baylor to secure the regular season Big 12 title. | Brian McLean - On Assignment Photo/KillerFrogs.com for TCU On SI

The biggest differentiator between TCU and the two seeds is the NET and WAB rankings, the metrics the committee uses to place NCAA Tournament teams. WAB was added this season to complement NET by measuring the quality of a team’s resume based on results, without factoring in margins of wins or losses or a team’s efficiency. Other metrics used by the selection committee include bad losses, competitiveness in losses, head-to-head outcomes, significant wins, strength of schedule, and overall record.

Here is how TCU’s NET, WAB and overall record stack up against the current two and three seeds.

Team (Seed)	NET	WAB	Overall Record	Conference Finish
TCU (3)	11	12	27-4	1st - Big 12
Duke (3)	10	13	21-8	1st - ACC
Louisville (3)	13	10	25-6	2nd - ACC
Oklahoma (3)	12	11	23-6	5th - SEC
LSU (2)	5	9	26-4	4th - SEC
Vanderbilt (2)	7	5	27-3	T2nd- SEC
Iowa (2)	9	7	24-5	T2nd - Big 10
Michigan (2)	6	6	24-5	T-2nd - Big 10

It’s not impossible for the Horned Frogs to reach a No. 2 seed, but that would be difficult without other teams underperforming in their conference tournaments.

Big 12 & NCAA Tournament Projections

The Big 12 has seven teams projected in the tournament. Utah is in the “First Four Out” group while Arizona State, BYU and Kansas are in the “Next Four Out.” A win or two in the Big 12 Conference tournament could help those teams sneak into the Big Dance.

TCU will face either No. 8 seed Utah, No. 9 seed BYU or No. 16 seed Houston in the conference tournament quarterfinals on Friday, March 6 at 1:30 p.m. BYU plays Houston on Wednesday in the first round, and the winner will play Utah on Thursday.

Here’s where all the Big 12 teams are currently projected in the NCAA Tournament. Teams are listed by seed followed by the host school for the first and second rounds.

Fort Worth Region 1	Seed	Host
Baylor	6	Louisville

Fort Worth Region 3
TCU	3	TCU
Iowa State	9	South Carolina

Sacramento Region 2
West Virginia	5	Michigan State
Oklahoma State	8	UCLA

Sacramento Region 4
Texas Tech	5	Minnesota
Colorado	11	Oklahoma

Selection Sunday

Selection Sunday is March 15 and ESPN will air a selection show at 7 p.m. Central Time. The last top 16 seeds list will be released on March 14 with the teams listed in alphabetical order as a teaser to the selection show. First- and second-round NCAA Tournament games will run March 20-23.

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