SEC Update: Tennessee Clinging On To Double Bye
After another loss, Tennessee has fallen into dangerous territory with a crucial final three games ahead. The Vols still hold a double-bye but are tied with Auburn and just one game ahead of Arkansas, Missouri, and Vanderbilt with three games to play. The situation for Tennessee is dangerous, especially with the injuries still being a factor. So with these remaining games, here's where the Vols should finish and where they could finish.
While Tennessee still has to play Arkansas and Auburn, with the second coming on the road, the teams that could move into the four seed aren't exactly playing favorable schedules either. Auburn, the most concerning threat at the moment, closes the season with Kentucky and Alabama on the road before hosting the Vols. In all likelihood, Tennessee should have a lead on Auburn going into that final game, which could be two games.
In Arkansas' case, they have the same teams as Auburn to finish conference play, just in a different order and at different locations. The Hogs will have back-to-back games in Tuscaloosa and Knoxville before Kentucky comes to town. The most likely scenario for Arkansas is 1-2. Even if they go 2-1 with a loss to Tennessee, the Hogs will likely be out of the double-bye picture.
Oddly enough, Missouri might be the biggest threat to steal the spot. Let's say Auburn finishes 1-2, Tennessee loses to either Arkansas or Auburn, and Missouri is just a 3-0 stretch away from the four seed. Unlike their conference foes, Missouri's schedule is light to wrap up. The Tigers will head to Athens on Saturday before going to LSU and hosting Ole Miss to finish the regular season. 2-1 is the most likely scenario for Missouri, but they will be favored in all three games.
Vanderbilt is in the toughest spot, but you can't completely rule them out yet. The Commodores have home games against Florida and Mississippi State, with a game in Lexington sandwiched in between. Now, Vanderbilt is not going to go 3-0. It is actually more likely that they go 1-2. However, if Vanderbilt can win out, Missouri loses, Tennessee drops a game, and Auburn goes 1-2 with a win over the Vols, Vandy isn't playing in Nashville until Friday.
Final Prediction
- 4. Missouri (11-7), 3-0 in final games.
- 5. Tennessee (11-7), 2-1 in final games with a loss at Auburn.
- 6. Auburn (10-8), 1-2 in final games.
- 7. Vanderbilt (9-9), 1-2 in final games with a win over Florida.
- 8. Mississippi State (9-9)
- 9. Arkansas (9-9), 1-2 in final games with a win over Kentucky.
While Tennessee would have to play an extra game in this scenario, they'd draw the winner of South Carolina and Ole Miss and then would get a revenge opportunity against Missouri—still not the worst situation in the world.
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